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Joseph L. Shaefer  

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  • Why Has Oil Dropped So Quickly? What Are We Doing About It? [View article]
    auto, interesting facts I intended to include in the article but it was way too late at night and I left them out. The top 10 *nat gas* producers in the USA are:
    #1 ExxonMobil -- thanks to XOM's acquisition of XTO (the old Cross Timbers) in 2010, XOM produces more than any other firm.
    #4 BP -- BP is in 80 countries so we tend to forget how big it is in the US
    #7 ConocoPhillips -- it may have interests in 30 countries but it's still homegrown US oil & gas
    #8 Chevron -- CVX is no slouch in natgas either!

    So we can have our cake and eat it, too. We're buying what are thought of by most investors as Big Oil with these companies, but they are really "two-fers." At these prices we're buying a whole lot of natgas on the cheap, as well.
    Dec 16, 2014. 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Has Oil Dropped So Quickly? What Are We Doing About It? [View article]
    True -- and that's why you see internationals BP, TOT, and SU as separate options purchases. Personally, I *want* to own an ETF that has XOM and CVX as its touchstones, with the other larger US firms right behind them.
    Dec 16, 2014. 10:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Has Oil Dropped So Quickly? What Are We Doing About It? [View article]
    Of course, easyrob. We didn't buy them all at once, but the range was: a high of 7.70 and a low of 6.90. We are therefore down slightly on the ones purchased at the higher end of the range...
    Dec 16, 2014. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil And Gas: USA 1, OPEC 0 [View article]
    PS, Mercy --

    I see that Jakob Stausholm, board member of Statoil, bought 17,400 shares of STO at a price of 131.51 NOK per share yesterday. That's 50% more than he held the day before yesterday...

    (He probably wishes he'd waited one more day -- but, like us, he is likely building a portfolio for the future, not trying to guess the lows!)

    PS -- The furthest option I find is for July, hardly a LEAP...
    Dec 5, 2014. 09:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil And Gas: USA 1, OPEC 0 [View article]
    Too early -- and not at this point selling anything. If we have become slightly longer term investors than we initially expected, the discipline and lack of trading will serve us well, I believe.
    We have only a token position in STO right now; just as I was writing it up this deluge began and I chose others to begin buying. Yes, I agree their 2015 doesn't look brilliant unless--
    1. Their Marcellus, Eagle Ford and Bakken properties prove more fecund and/or lower cost to produce than they are currently projecting, a distinct possibility, or
    2. An unexpected geopolitical event occurs that raises the price of oil globally. It could be as extreme as a terror attack taking production offline in part of Saudi's Ghawar or as benign as Venezuela exporting way less to prevent the overthrow of the Maduro government.

    I have to hold to my 15% in any one sector discipline, but at any cheaper price I'd at least have to buy a few STO LEAPs!
    Dec 5, 2014. 09:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil And Gas: USA 1, OPEC 0 [View article]
    Well-said and all true, Thucydides. Your standards of research and analysis bring credit upon your namesake!
    Dec 5, 2014. 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil And Gas: USA 1, OPEC 0 [View article]
    You know, I wondered about that report, which came straight from the state of North Dakota. Wannabes, I guess! And I knew that if anyone shared my skepticism and had the actual numbers, it would be one of my friends or readers from the Great State of Texas! :>))

    Thank you!
    Dec 5, 2014. 09:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The One Sector You Must Own Today (Part II) [View article]
    Still nibbling, and only a little -- gulping too often results in indigestion!
    Nov 28, 2014. 12:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The One Sector You Must Own Today (Part 3 Of 3) [View article]
    I have no idea what will happen short term to the market or to the energy sector and neither does anyone else, no matter what they may say or predict! I only know that for 40 years, every time oil and gas have declined, I've begun my buying and if they decline more I continue my buying, and at some point, typically in the intermediate term, "something" happens to provide the catalyst for a return to or above the mean.

    Will Iraq self-destruct in civil war? Will Venezuela have to stop exporting to subsidize the home market to prevent a collapse of the government? Will Iran see more sanctions on its oil export capability? Or will investors simply deem 5% yields and PEs of 6 and 7 to represent likely future value? No one knows. But history suggests that linear thinkers make poor investors -- and just because oil and gas stocks are currently declining doesn't mean they must continue to do so. It is the nature of supply and demand to seek homeostasis.
    Nov 28, 2014. 12:14 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The One Sector You Must Own Today (Part 3 Of 3) [View article]
    You mean the article where I wrote:

    "However! SDRL is highly-leveraged, with way too much of an addiction to debt, and in this business trailing earnings are not a valid harbinger of current earnings. That dividend may not be sustainable, especially since the company predicts no uptick in rig usage until the summer of 2015. Of course, they could slash the dividend by 50% and still be paying a 9.5% yield. But, caveat emptor, much of their debt is floating-rate which, if interest rates rise rapidly, would force them to retrench. Among the positives, however, are a large high specification fleet and high insider ownership. At these prices, SDRL as a speculative play makes sense."

    As a speculative play, it still makes sense! It's easy to be impressed when one of our suggestions for your due diligence appreciates or be disparaging when one goes down but, really now, it's your responsibility to decide if you agree! We did make our first buy at 20 and we'll now buy a little more somewhere in the teens. Unless the company goes bankrupt, I imagine we'll be pleased with that blended price 6 months or a year from now.

    If not, you can always say "I told you so!" I'll take no offense -- in this business, if we bat .700, we're waaaaay ahead of the game. :>))
    Nov 27, 2014. 01:37 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The One Sector You Must Own Today (Part II) [View article]
    My thoughts are that if I had a crystal ball I would have waited to buy!

    But since I don't, I am OK buying into an essential sector like energy when it deviates from historic valuation and will buy more now that the deviation is even greater. I'll save the last of the amount we are willing to put into any one sector when I see the catalyst of rising oil and gas prices. These three entry points should result in a good long-term buy price...
    Nov 27, 2014. 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The One Sector You Must Own Today (Part II) [View article]
    Ummm... if you read anything I've written you'll find I am indeed quite critical of the Saudi theocracy/ oligarchy as well as the Chinese autocracy/ kleptocracy.

    But, then, I imagine none of this would matter; you aren't as interested in investing as you are in USA-bashing. Such folderol is so Cold War, so yesterday -- and so like the maskirovka that Russia pays people to write to burnish its image for the home audience. If we could stick to the purpose of this site -- investing: as long as you don't mind possible 100% confiscation of your assets, you may enjoy investing in Russia. I'll stick to open, transparent Western and Asian markets with good governance. We wish you the best in your investing choices.
    Nov 27, 2014. 01:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The One Sector You Must Own Today (Part II) [View article]
    We aren't day-traders, so we began buying in mid-November. We are taking our time filling out our positions in the next couple weeks. Our blended price will give us xlnt entry points. We will hold through the next up-cycle and collect some nice dividends as we wait. (Though not on SDRL!) :>))
    Nov 27, 2014. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The One Sector You Must Own Today (Part I) [View article]
    The article was written Nov 13, published by SA Nov 14. The chart is a of Nov 13! :>))
    Nov 27, 2014. 01:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #275, November 3, 2014 [View instapost]
    We all have much to give thanks for on this day that originally celebrated the joy of merely surviving in a strange uncharted land. Having now lived in, been deployed to, or visited some 70 other countries, with all our shortcomings, I give thanks that I have the privilege of living in the United States of America!
    Nov 26, 2014. 07:40 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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