Joseph Poma

Long/short equity, value, growth, dividend investing
Joseph Poma
Long/short equity, value, growth, dividend investing
Contributor since: 2011
So anyone taking advantage of the nice spread between current market price and offer price? looking at a 2 point spread ~6% difference. How long till this deal official closes and CVC owners are cashed out?
The only corner ARO is rounding is the one that leads to the lawyers office where they will prepare documents to file for bankruptcy. This company is discounting at an absurd rate and they still struggle to draw in customers ( in spite of the authors "evidence"). The design team should be fired for their lack of originality, how do you expect to draw customers when you sell t-shirts when you can find identical/similar designs on a Kohl's clearance rack...
"While management talked about a solid performance of online and digital sales on the conference call, these claims were unfortunately not backed up by real numbers. The company's claim to recover gross margins to levels in the high-thirties seems very aggressive in my eyes, as I do not think that this is very realistic given the competitive environment."
I'd like to comment on this paragraph (2 sentences).
First, I can say first had that the company has in fact seen strong online sales. The company began two online initiatives in 2015, both being well received. The first is direct fulfillment from the store level to customers versus shipping stock back to warehouses / discount stores. This was a trial program with a few stores at the beginning of the year however has expanded to all stores given its success.
The second is the company's most recent success with the roll out of a initiative that allows prospective customers to "reserve" clothes online for when they have time to go to the store and try them on. Customers have embraced this new opportunity and while these are not technically online sales, they are helping to drive traffic to the stores.
These are not "I think" statements. These are "I know" statements because I have several contacts at the store level.
The success of these programs coupled with the fact that the company is no longer aggressively discounting to drive traffic will result in a strong Q3, headlined by improved margins.
Twitter will forever live in the shadow of Facebook. It fails to attract older, more consistent users. New features will enhance its product, but it does nothing to grow the user base. Don't waste your time, Long FB is the trade to be in. I even prefer LNKD over TWTR
I'm certainly not discounting other factors influencing demand, just pointing out a correlation.
Yeah.......I've heard that bear thesis before.... when FB was $28/share.
Forgive me but I'm calling you out. You've been bearish on F for a long time now and you are clearly either short the stock, own puts, or just a GM / TM fanatic. Going back through the pages of comments (I stopped after page 33), you've been making bearish comments on F since at least the beginning of April and in that time the stock has traded from low $15 to mid $17, an approximate 14% return while the S&P 500 has only returned about 7%. The fact that you continue to make bearish calls only continues to support the bull thesis. Please let me know when you turn to a bull on F so I know when to sell my stock because I've got a feeling you make an excellent contrarian indicator!
P.S. - If you've seen recent reports, Lincoln is in the midst of a revival of its brand. Certainly not the type of product line that should be sold off. While Mulally was a financial whizz, he wasn't perfect and his conservative cost cutting approach could have easily led him to misjudge the Lincoln brand.
forget the meaningless dividend?! At ~3% Ford is a great stock to have in a retirement portfolio with growth potential to boot. The company has proven its ability to withstand financial hardship and you can be sure the new management team will hold tightly to the lessons learned under Mulally. Not to mention, buying the stock now and locking in a sub-$18 price will put you in a great position for next quarter when I anticipate the company raising their dividend to $0.60 (20% div. growth).
There is no way any company is going to pay down debt in this low interest rate environment, now is the time to be taking on new debts and refinancing as we've seen them do recently with long dated notes. Too many people see debt as an evil, but you have to consider not just the costs but what is received in turn. VZ is borrowing at just 200 basis points above treasury notes. At that rate it is very easy for the company to find profitable net present value projects and investments. At recent rates, borrowing to buy back stock is even a positive investment. The stock yields just over 4%. VZ could issue debt for less than that over a short duration and buyback shares with the proceeds. They would also benefit from favorable tax treatment on the payment of interest on the bonds. So, in short, don't expect the company to pay down debts unless it is to refinance, and there is absolutely no way the company would trim its dividend!
You think it was on bloomberg TV... which means you actually have no flipping clue...
To be honest, I have no position but love watching you bulls and bears get all up in arms... can't wait for the bloodbath when one side finally comes out victorious.
At that time I will then also be appreciative of the fewer notifications regarding HLF news!
First off, once any news regarding Herbalife's situation is released, NO ONE will be able to trade it because any nitwit would know that the stock would be halted. Also, your excessive bearishness is absurd. Even the most extreme of bears knows there should be a limit to their position size. Your ridiculous and incessant bantering about desiring more and more shares to short makes you sound like a child and someone who really doesn't have a position at all.
Not doing due diligence? Are you serious? At a time of crisis when literally HOURS remained before financial crisis? The government breathed down the necks of bank executives to force their hands to avoid a complete financial meltdown, and then turns around suing those same banks when citizens claim fraud. Please. While these banks likely also committed the same transgressions, is it fair to ruthlessly punish them for the errs of others?
IMHO gov't officials are acting as goons. The stories I've heard from some friends in the D.A.'s office... political figures have called in left and right making a claim for an additional Billion etc. At this point, I hope BAC goes to court because anything over $13B is just a shakedown by the gov't to make it look right in the eyes of the people.
uh... -9.00 on the S&P futures is flat? SA you might want to update...
Gladly, you're drunk on all the 3D hype that has been fed to you.
Have you fallen off your rocker???
Uhh.. well the last 2 statements don't make any sense.
That's akin to saying your willing to take 10% interest, even if the REAL interest rate is -2%.
And not all spending is created equally. You can't just make a blanket statement that says increased spending = staying ahead of the curve.
On a side note... You don't seriously see DDD going to $1000/share by you?
When I assume usually I get some moron to spell it out for me...
uh...yeah, sorry to burst your bubble, but you are not doubling your investment every 18 months. That would imply the dividend is >60% annually. Might want to check your math! :-)
I wouldn't use your friends surprise reaction to share price as a buy signal. Did you tell him the market cap of the company or the number of shares outstanding? Share price is a meaningless measure of value if you don't know any better as you say your friend does.
8 - 10 cents per QUARTER?! Sorry buddy, but I think you're dreaming, at least in the short term.
LOL...Jim Chanos cover his shorts yet? Guy tought the DVD was going to die, and maybe it will, but not for another 5 - 10 years at least.
GoPro is best in the industry. Even TV studios use their cameras on a regular basis.
Isn't amazing how SA gives credit to one of its bearish authors when the stock move coincides with a published article, but when the stock takes a bullish turn which coincides with an article publication, SA is mum.... interesting, just making observations....
LOL! "Not some service that no one uses..." I'm sorry did you see the DECLINE in timeline views? Keep buying, I'll be the one selling it to ya!
Interesting, as a high school teacher I'm fortunate to have at least perhaps a little insight on student activity in social media. I've had many former students seek me out on Facebook (not so much on twitter where I only have an account to get current news). I'll be opening up discussion with my economics class tomorrow and with other students I have through out the day to get a better idea as to how the younger generation views social media. I'll be sure to post my findings.
Sorry guys, don't try and justify it. Didn't they say something like 75% of views were mobile? What do college kids leave their phones at school when they go home for break? Do they just stop tweeting when they go on vacation. NOPE! I'll talk to my students tomorrow and get some different insight, but the way I see it, there is no justifying decreasing timeline views.
Data licensing revenue growth expected to be flat... that's a little disappointing. Wasn't that one of the big ideas for long term investors, that Twitter was supposed to be more than just another advertiser, but instead have a diversified revenue plan...
I have to disagree. The "losing teen users"report was refuted by their numbers. No one was expecting user growth to come in with the numbers that it did. Revenues and profit are meaningless right now for them because without user growth the company has nothing to compete with against Facebook and Google.
My mistake, in the process of having my last comment removed/edited.
I was a convicted buyer of FB but sold out way too early. I have the same conviction when it comes to AMBA. The GoPro cameras are in high demand and they will be making an appearance at the 2014 Olympics. Once the product gains global visibility, sales will be brisk. Mr. Eiad Asbahi claimed he had reliable knowledge regarding his "channel checks"... these proved to be greatly misguided, much in the same way as his new bearish call is.
Interesting article, I am neither long or short but have been following this stock with the intention of a swing trade once new momentum is established in either direction.
That said, I do have to correct you in one place sir, which is with regards to your claim that there isn't sufficient evidence when n = 50.
"The data presented at ASCO 2010 also highlighted a sub-group of subjects with low and intermediate levels of HER2 displayed statistically significant recurrence rates of 7.8% in the vaccine group (n=50) compared to a 23.5% recurrence rate in the control group (n=34) after 36 months. This data was reported to be statistically significant with a p-value of p=0.045. This data is important because it's exactly how the PRESENT trial is designed. The Phase III PRESENT study is enrolling breast cancer patients with tumors that express low and intermediate levels of HER2.
The problem that I have with this data is that the sub-groups were too small to justify a successful study."
Your statement is actually false. As long as samples contain over 30 independent subjects, the sample is considered large enough to draw an estimate for the population. So while n=34 isn't exactly an overbearing sample and one you might feel comfortable with, it is large enough to draw valid conclusions from.
LGF has another big trilogy coming soon, Divergent. On Twitter, Facebook and in every high school around America there is serious demand for this movie to come out. What makes it different from Hunger Games is that it doesn't have the same female bias and this movie may appeal more to the older age groups as well. I don't believe it to be too far of a stretch to say that this movie may eclipse The Hunger Games in ticket sales.