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Joseph Poma  

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  • Galena Biopharma: Numerous Red Flags Suggest A Significant Overvaluation [View article]
    Interesting article, I am neither long or short but have been following this stock with the intention of a swing trade once new momentum is established in either direction.

    That said, I do have to correct you in one place sir, which is with regards to your claim that there isn't sufficient evidence when n = 50.

    "The data presented at ASCO 2010 also highlighted a sub-group of subjects with low and intermediate levels of HER2 displayed statistically significant recurrence rates of 7.8% in the vaccine group (n=50) compared to a 23.5% recurrence rate in the control group (n=34) after 36 months. This data was reported to be statistically significant with a p-value of p=0.045. This data is important because it's exactly how the PRESENT trial is designed. The Phase III PRESENT study is enrolling breast cancer patients with tumors that express low and intermediate levels of HER2.

    The problem that I have with this data is that the sub-groups were too small to justify a successful study."

    Your statement is actually false. As long as samples contain over 30 independent subjects, the sample is considered large enough to draw an estimate for the population. So while n=34 isn't exactly an overbearing sample and one you might feel comfortable with, it is large enough to draw valid conclusions from.
    Feb 1, 2014. 03:30 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lions Gate: Hunger Games a smash hit, but shares stalled [View news story]
    LGF has another big trilogy coming soon, Divergent. On Twitter, Facebook and in every high school around America there is serious demand for this movie to come out. What makes it different from Hunger Games is that it doesn't have the same female bias and this movie may appeal more to the older age groups as well. I don't believe it to be too far of a stretch to say that this movie may eclipse The Hunger Games in ticket sales.
    Jan 10, 2014. 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Payrolls add 74K in December; UE rate down to 6.7% [View news story]
    Being a math teacher I have to correct your terms. Employment and unemployment are never reciprocals, but rather complement values.
    Jan 10, 2014. 09:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ambarella: Continued Momentum For 2014 [View article]
    I can't argue with your call. I don't know if I would go as far to say that you could find more growth in a company like KORS vs. AMBA, but I could certainly understand profit taking and looking for alternatives.
    Jan 3, 2014. 03:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Social Media Frenzy [View article]
    I don't usually give estimates on revenue because the results can be finicky. I do believe street estimates are too low and I am looking for a number somewhere between 11B - 11.4B

    I also think we'll see investors in 2014 be slightly more conservative and I have to believe we won't be seeing a 60 multiple unless the company really shows significant growth and/or improved margins.

    LNKD is overvalued and personally I don't have much confidence in management to make the right moves. Maybe it's a bias, I try not to let it get in the way much, but I just don't like their model, though if they focus more on talent solutions I think they could have some serious potential.

    TWTR is overvalued and will greatly disappoint. The stock should get a free pass on its first earnings with investors likely not too be expecting much in terms of revenue. Unlike Facebook or LinkedIn, I feel Twitter lacks differentiation and is more susceptible to new competition.
    Jan 2, 2014. 11:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ambarella: Continued Momentum For 2014 [View article]
    While I appreciate your contrarian-ism, I have to respectfully disagree. Excessive bullish sentiment could be a signal of a pullback, but for the entire month of December there have been 3 bullish articles written about AMBA against 2 bearish. I would hardly classify that as excessive bullishness.

    That said, I certainly would not mind a retreat from the current highs to augment my position.

    Full Disclosure: This morning I did take profits on my near term January call options, however I still am long February Calls as well as LEAPs.
    Dec 30, 2013. 06:12 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ambarella: 5 Different Insiders Have Sold Shares This Month [View article]
    Thanks gelded for the support!
    Dec 30, 2013. 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In A Rising Interest Rate Environment [View article]
    Keep adding to that $AMBA position! For every 200 shares bought I'm selling one call option just to keep my bullishness in check...a little.
    Dec 23, 2013. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ambarella: Channel Checks Point To Earnings Miss, Significant Downside [View article]
    So... how's that short working for ya?
    Dec 22, 2013. 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ambarella: 5 Different Insiders Have Sold Shares This Month [View article]
    Waste of money, big news from a strong company. Sell premiums!
    Dec 22, 2013. 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Futures flat as stocks look to break losing streak [View news story]
    Low rates have made buybacks cheap and accessible. Rising interest rates will slow corporate borrowing, in turn decreasing equity demand.

    Not to mention investors have chased higher highs for sometime now...
    Dec 4, 2013. 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big ADP print sends 10-year yield up to 2.84% [View news story]
    Guess we won't be seeing 1800 again for a little while... Perhaps 1700 before 1800?
    Dec 4, 2013. 09:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Model S clears safety regulators in Germany [View news story]
    Really? 12%+ on news that their car is safe?

    Seriously people, cars are supposed to be safe to drive, this is not monumental.

    It's sort of like saying Fast food is bad for you and McDonalds stock plummets 12%... completely unreasonable, and yet people think we're not in a bubble!
    Dec 3, 2013. 11:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman would replace short, puts with CDS if Herbalife taken private [View news story]
    Everyone is comparing Ackman's success during the credit crisis to his short of Herbalife when in fact, they are nothing alike!

    You people fail to realize that in order for his $0 price target to materialize, he depends on the government to get involved. With MBIA he had the luxury of waiting and letting things go sour on his own. HIs short of Herbalife depends entirely on government action and he could be waiting a long time for that to occur.
    Nov 22, 2013. 04:34 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Campbell Soup Co: Cash Flow Valuation Update [View instapost]
    Interesting analysis, but don't you think a 20% margin of safety is a bit extreme for a low beta stock such as CPB?
    Nov 19, 2013. 08:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment