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Joseph Poma

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  • Galena Biopharma: Numerous Red Flags Suggest A Significant Overvaluation [View article]
    Interesting article, I am neither long or short but have been following this stock with the intention of a swing trade once new momentum is established in either direction.

    That said, I do have to correct you in one place sir, which is with regards to your claim that there isn't sufficient evidence when n = 50.

    "The data presented at ASCO 2010 also highlighted a sub-group of subjects with low and intermediate levels of HER2 displayed statistically significant recurrence rates of 7.8% in the vaccine group (n=50) compared to a 23.5% recurrence rate in the control group (n=34) after 36 months. This data was reported to be statistically significant with a p-value of p=0.045. This data is important because it's exactly how the PRESENT trial is designed. The Phase III PRESENT study is enrolling breast cancer patients with tumors that express low and intermediate levels of HER2.

    The problem that I have with this data is that the sub-groups were too small to justify a successful study."

    Your statement is actually false. As long as samples contain over 30 independent subjects, the sample is considered large enough to draw an estimate for the population. So while n=34 isn't exactly an overbearing sample and one you might feel comfortable with, it is large enough to draw valid conclusions from.
    Feb 1 03:30 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Burn after reading: Another Model S fire [View news story]
    How many Ford's are on the road? How many Tesla's? Can't compare absolutes, only relatives and I'm sure Tesla is "winning" that race by a mile ;-) SHORT
    Nov 7 01:34 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman sends 52-pager to Herbalife auditor, Ramey says nothing material [View news story]
    Nothing reeks of desperation as badly as blackmail does.

    Ackman is essentially saying to the auditor:

    "If I'm right, you will lose, and if I'm wrong I will do what it takes so that you lose."
    Sep 11 04:19 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All Hell Could Break Loose For Herbalife Any Day [View article]
    My mistake for thinking you held yourself to a higher standard. I've made a mental note to disregard anything you have to say.
    Oct 22 10:56 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All Hell Could Break Loose For Herbalife Any Day [View article]
    Author, you comment (read as ridicule) on the CEO's inability to maintain a professional appearance in front of crowds, but then you go ahead and argue with those who comment when their opinions differ. Please, tell me now who is the unprofessional here?

    As for my position on HLF, both Long and Short via Puts and calls, so IDGAF which way it moves when it inevitably does.
    Oct 22 10:28 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman sends 52-pager to Herbalife auditor, Ramey says nothing material [View news story]
    "In light of the materiality of this audit to Herbalife, it is crucial that investors can be confident of the independence and objectivity..."

    Is he serious? If you were so worried about independence and objectivity, you would have shut your mouth and let the auditing company, whose specialization is in accounting and auditing, do their job unimpeded and without outside commotion!
    Sep 11 04:32 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Carl Icahn's Herbalife Position Left Him Exposed? [View article]
    That has got to be the WORST introduction to an article ever. Just because YOU have never seen someone use or mention an F-1 shake does not mean it doesn't have a strong consumer base. If that were the case, I don't see people using or discussing their use of Depends adult diapers, so therefore the stock of the company making that one product should probably be shorted.

    Look, I read both the long and short articles for HLF because I believe the story is interesting. I don't care either way what happens, I'm long both puts and calls. Do I think the company is a pyramid scheme, sure. Is it possible that the "members" are also consumers, I don't see why not. I don't know the full inside details, nor have I interviewed a significant number of individual representatives to draw a meaningful conclusion so I will not sit here and debate who is right and who is wrong because ultimately, without information, it boils down to a moral disagreement.

    Maybe it's the logic teacher in me, but you do a disservice to your credibility when you start any conversation with a logical fallacy (Argumentum Ad Ignorantiam).
    Oct 25 10:57 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Soon To Be A Shell Of Its Former Self, Like AOL [View article]
    Let me join the masses and "+1" your article...oh wait, there is no one to join...this clearly exhibits your "Google + is a fierce Facebook competitor" argument. Maybe I should share it on LinkedIn! Wait, no one has done that either (the one person who clicked that link was myself to test it out, don't get excited, I didn't share it). So, please, author, tell me again how you think there are competitors in the social networking business? WAIT! I know, you must be talking about MYSPACE!!! (wait that can't be right, didn't Facebook steal the majority of their entire user base?).

    All you bears are crazy if you think Facebook is going to go away or will become what AOL was. It is entirely different. Facebook is more than a social network, it has become a social investment. It is the only platform (on a mass scale) that has successfully created a domain for our virtual selves. It's integration into Apple products displays its ability to stay around and be an effective growth company.
    Sep 25 02:53 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mark My Words, These Stocks Will Double In 2012 [View article]
    Your ENTIRE article is WRONG. A stock's 52-week high is NOT THE MEAN. It is simply a maximum point. Saying that a stock will retrace to the upper bound because of "mean reversion" proves your ignorance to mathematical concepts.

    ALSO, you clearly have never learned anything, in your 25 - 30 years of experience as you state in your profile, about professional standards in finance. "Mark my words"? You can't say phrases like this one in the finance world. If you had any clue about the strictness of the financial analysis and advising professions nowadays you would know that you could never make that statement to a client or prospective clients.

    Please, do all the readers of Seekingalpha a favor and don't make ridiculous statements such as "Mark My Words This Is Going To Double Next Year"...unless you are personally guaranteeing the doubling of my money, in which case I would gladly take you up on your offer.
    Dec 31 01:12 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman would replace short, puts with CDS if Herbalife taken private [View news story]
    Everyone is comparing Ackman's success during the credit crisis to his short of Herbalife when in fact, they are nothing alike!

    You people fail to realize that in order for his $0 price target to materialize, he depends on the government to get involved. With MBIA he had the luxury of waiting and letting things go sour on his own. HIs short of Herbalife depends entirely on government action and he could be waiting a long time for that to occur.
    Nov 22 04:34 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter prices IPO at $26 [View news story]
    $17 Billion for a company with no profits... Looks like the DotCom Bubble is back again!
    Nov 6 07:11 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michelle Obama backs the proposed ban in NYC on large-sized soda drinks before issuing a statement later on detailing that she didn't quite mean to enter the debate. At this point the uproar in the Big Apple has taken much of the steam out of any move to adopt any federal framework to limit soda sales, helping analysts keep forecasts in place for a beverage industry powered by the American consumer who drinks a whopping 43.5 gallons of soda a year on average. [View news story]
    When will the extreme left stop throwing money at services that do an injustice to society by teaching and promoting laziness?
    Jun 6 10:20 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter -11.2% AH. Guidance strong, but Timeline views drop Q/Q [View news story]
    I have to disagree. The "losing teen users"report was refuted by their numbers. No one was expecting user growth to come in with the numbers that it did. Revenues and profit are meaningless right now for them because without user growth the company has nothing to compete with against Facebook and Google.
    Feb 5 04:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ambarella: Continued Momentum For 2014 [View article]
    While I appreciate your contrarian-ism, I have to respectfully disagree. Excessive bullish sentiment could be a signal of a pullback, but for the entire month of December there have been 3 bullish articles written about AMBA against 2 bearish. I would hardly classify that as excessive bullishness.

    That said, I certainly would not mind a retreat from the current highs to augment my position.

    Full Disclosure: This morning I did take profits on my near term January call options, however I still am long February Calls as well as LEAPs.
    Dec 30 06:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: An Ethical Short [View article]
    I started reading your article and was initially impressed. But being a math teacher, as soon as you used hypothetical, and might I add, completely arbitrary, percentages, you immediately discredit your reliability. Why do you believe there is a 70% chance of significant changes to accounting. Why not 68% or 71%?

    You have proven yourself to be just another bear, or maybe lemming the way you all jump off the cliff with Ackman. You write articles and post on Twitter because you have nothing left. You are willing to sacrifice your reputation (or what is left of it) for a bad trade. Know when to admit defeat.
    Sep 30 11:11 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment