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Joseph Stuber

 
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  • Why This Is The Most Hated Bull Market Of All Time - Understanding The Folly Of Financial Engineering
    Thu, Jul. 24 SPY 505 Comments

    Summary

    • Explaining stock price movement in the post-Glass Steagall financially engineered universe.
    • Why it is impossible to engage in long-term investment strategies in this financially engineered universe.
    • Why organic economic growth won't happen, as the disparity in incomes between the 1% and the rest are so extreme that recession is inevitable.
    • Why short covering has been the driver of stocks in 2014, and the significance of a short covering blow-off top.
  • How The Fed Has Exported Inflation And What Happens To Risk Assets When The Money Flows Reverse
    Thu, Apr. 3 DIA, IWM, QQQ 60 Comments

    Summary

    • Geopolitical risks are increasing that suggest a seminal shift in economic power in the coming weeks.
    • The next major battle between the East and the West could take place at the upcoming G20 meeting.
    • The IMF ultimatum to the US could escalate the trend to move away from the dollar in international trade and the creation of a parallel SWIFT system.
    • The risks are high that the dollar will breach support levels and the likelihood of a new era of high inflation in the US seems certain.
    • What such a shift means for investment assets.
  • The Fed Is Backed Into A Corner With No Way Out
    Editors' Pick • Wed, Mar. 26 SPY 184 Comments

    Summary

    • The primary driver of stocks is the carry trade.
    • The positive metrics of the carry trade are shifting.
    • The Fed's decision to end QE is primarily to defend the dollar against the yen and protect the positive metrics of the carry trade.
    • Even if the Fed can defend the dollar the undesired consequence of the current shift in policy will have negative effects on the economy.
  • The Fed's Reverse Repo Actions In 2014 Means QE Effectively Ended In December But They Forgot To Tell Us
    Fri, Mar. 14 SPY, TLT 117 Comments

    Summary

    • The Fed is boxed in and nowhere to turn.
    • NY Fed has done a total of $4.029 trillion in reverse repos in 2014.
    • NY Fed only did a total of $14.17 billion from January 1 to August 14, 2013.
    • The reverse repos are 1, 3 and 4 day terms and the daily average liquidity withdraw is in excess of the Fed's assets purchases under QE effectively sterilizing all QE.
    • The big question - why are they doing it and what does it mean?
  • Things You Probably Don't Understand About Russia's Agenda And Why You Need To Understand Them
    Tue, Mar. 11 GLD, SPY, TLT 222 Comments

    Summary

    • Explaining in logical terms why Russia has moved to occupy Crimea - think, the US dollar.
    • Understanding the China/Russia-led contingent to usher in a new system of global trade.
    • Understanding China and Russia's role in the multi-year battle to get the US on board with their plan.
    • Explaining why the US will ultimately lose this battle, as China and Russia have all the bargaining chips in this game.
    • Explaining what happens to risk assets if the US loses the battle.
  • Using The 90/10 Strategy For Protecting And Increasing Portfolio Value In A Bear Market
    Wed, Feb. 26 AAPL, BA, F 24 Comments
  • The Least Understood Dynamic In Today's Economy And What It Means For Investment Assets
    Editors' Pick • Wed, Feb. 19 GLD, SPY, TLT 120 Comments
  • Why A Gold Play Finally Makes Sense
    Tue, Feb. 11 GLD 55 Comments
  • Oxfam Report Suggests The NWO Is Almost Upon Us
    Tue, Jan. 28 81 Comments
  • Why We Are Not OK And Not On A Sustainable Trajectory
    Fri, Jan. 10 SPY 207 Comments
  • A Look At Corporate Earnings Growth, Liquidity Traps And The Law Of Diminishing Returns
    Nov. 25, 2013 ACWV, CVOL, IVOP 33 Comments
  • Yes Mrs. Yellen, QE Is Creating An Asset Bubble
    Nov. 18, 2013 SPY 131 Comments
  • Obama And Lew Say This Is Serious - Are They Just Grandstanding Or Is This Time Different?
    Editors' Pick • Oct. 6, 2013 GLD, SPY, TLT 328 Comments
  • Is The Bernanke Bull Market Ending Along With The Chairman's Departure?
    Aug. 19, 2013 JPM, GLD, SPY 44 Comments
  • Short-Term/Long-Term Forecast Of Stocks, Bonds And Gold
    Aug. 12, 2013 GLD, SPY, TLT 30 Comments
  • The Economy Is Improving - Isn't It?
    Editors' Pick • Aug. 5, 2013 AAPL, GLD, NUGT 300 Comments
  • UVXY Inflows Reveal A Strange Paradox That Could Be Preventing A Market Correction
    Jul. 29, 2013 UVXY 90 Comments
  • Why Stocks Continue To Levitate In The Face Of Eroding Economic Metrics: Ask Elizabeth Warren
    Jul. 16, 2013 SPY 97 Comments
  • Understanding The Schizophrenic Fed's Risk-On/Risk-Off Messages
    Jun. 29, 2013 BND, DIA, GLD 39 Comments
  • Stocks And Bonds Spike On The 'Bad Is Good' GDP Revision - Don't Expect The Rally To Hold
    Jun. 26, 2013 GLD, SPY, TLT 30 Comments
  • Trying To Connect The Dots On The Fed's Exit Strategy Timing
    Jun. 19, 2013 GLD, SPY, TLT 35 Comments
  • This Week's FOMC Meeting Could Signal The End Of The Policy Driven Bull Market
    Jun. 17, 2013 SPY 36 Comments
  • Maybe Thursday's Stock Market Ramp Has To Do With Bonds, Not Stocks
    Jun. 15, 2013 TLT, SPY 26 Comments
  • The Paradigm Shift Has Begun - This Isn't Going To Be Pretty
    Editors' Pick • Jun. 11, 2013 GLD, TLT, SPY 274 Comments
  • The Ballad Of Big Ben
    Editors' Pick • Jun. 5, 2013 BAC, GLD, SPY 63 Comments
  • A Bear's Best Effort At Making A Case For The Bulls
    May. 27, 2013 SPY 57 Comments
  • The Bernanke Agenda - It Isn't What You Think It Is
    May. 15, 2013 C, FDO, GM 166 Comments
  • Why I Remain Bearish Despite The Cyclical Bull Rally
    May. 6, 2013 UVXY, SPY 196 Comments
  • What Happens When Liquidity Disappears?
    Apr. 25, 2013 AAPL, GLD, GOOG 96 Comments
  • A Call On A Market Top And Why Gold Is Imploding
    Apr. 15, 2013 AAPL, GLD, SPY 45 Comments
  • Even The Bulls Are Becoming Wary: Can We Trust The Market Any Longer?
    Apr. 9, 2013 AAPL, BND, DIA 191 Comments
  • A Pending Market Crash Waiting For A Catalyst - The EU Delivers
    Mar. 25, 2013 CAT, FDX, ORCL 177 Comments