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Joseph Stuber

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  • Friday's Stock Market Ramp – The Latest In A Long Litany Of Market Manipulations [View instapost]
    Would you please click on the like button as it is the only way for me to know if anyone actually reads these blog posts.

    Jul 7, 2013. 01:04 AM | 47 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding The Schizophrenic Fed's Risk-On / Risk-Off Messages  [View instapost]
    I haven't posted an instablog in a while as I have no way of knowing whether it is being read as opposed to a regular article where I do get a tally on readers. It would be useful to me if you would click the like button on this comment even if you don't care for the post so that I will know the number of readers on this article. If the number is high enough I will continue to post instablogs in the future.


    Jun 27, 2013. 09:57 PM | 32 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recession Risk: The Threat Of Rising Interest Rates [View article]

    That argument lacks logic. You can't go from $45,000 to $5,000 and say that a 1.3% increase in the rate of inflation diminishes the purchasing power of the $45,000 to a point where the impact of super low interest rates is not as significant as it appears.

    Inflation has a different impact on different people. Fuel prices for instance impact the young much more than the older retired person. They just don't drive as much.

    Also, the elderly who have accumulated assets and now wish to live on the interest are not in the market buying consumer items to the degree younger people do.

    At $5,000 a year a person can't even pay his utility bills - let alone real estate taxes on a home that is probably paid for or food. $45,000 and an inflation rate of 3.3% vs $5,000 at an inflation rate at 2% is a no brainer - give me the former.

    This low interest policy was set in place to drive asset prices higher through inflation that would monetize debt across the spectrum if it had worked. It has failed in all categories except equities and that is clearly a bubble that is soon to burst.

    ZIRP is just another tragedy in a long list of tragedies brought on by a political class that is willing to do anything to get votes no matter how irresponsible their actions are in the long term.

    The unfortunate consequence is that the long term is no longer long term. The consequence of this vote driven, give them what they want mindset is at our doorstep.

    It's a damned shame our fiscal and monetary policy leaders have been so incompetent. In the private sector such actions would lead to long prison terms.

    Dec 8, 2012. 01:33 PM | 31 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anatomy Of A Market Bubble [View article]

    I did spend a lot of time on this article - mostly for my own edification. I cleaned it up and submitted it on the outside chance SA would publish it. I didn't know if they would due to its length.

    Took about a month on and off to collect the data. To fully validate a major part of the thesis would require a lot more in-depth research on corporate balance sheets. I began that process but realized that I was already well past the norm - even for me - in terms of length.

    Sep 20, 2014. 12:22 PM | 30 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Surviving And Prospering Over The Next 4 Years Of Economic Darkness [View article]
    The collective ignorance of the American people is honestly heartbreaking. I don't think even those who understand another 4 years of Obama is going to be bad really understand just how bad it is going to be.

    Whether Obama has a hidden agenda or is just not very smart and doesn't realize the economic consequence of his policy and perspective is still a mystery to me. My guess is the hidden agenda.

    Don't expect Bernanke to come to the rescue either. He has accomplished his job. Just as Obama told the Russians - once I get elected I can do what I want.

    Well, he is elected folks and he has 4 more years to complete his mission. The final phase of the Amercian transformation starts today .

    Don't hesitate to hit the sell button. The exit doors are likely to get crowded before the day is over.
    Nov 7, 2012. 09:19 AM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UVXY Inflows Reveal A Paradox That Could Be Preventing A Market Correction  [View instapost]
    Please click on the like button if you read this. It is the only way I have of monitoring readership on blog posts.
    Jul 28, 2013. 11:44 AM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Are Not OK And Not On A Sustainable Trajectory [View article]
    To all those dismissing my points without explaining why they are doing so and with something at least as substantive as the data I have presented here in support of my view I have a question - why should anyone pay attention to what you say?

    Understand this article is not attempting to call a top on the market - rather it is explaining - and with documentation - a lot of things regarding the machinations of QE, its lack of efficacy, why it is a policy that ultimately is unsustainable and why the middle class is bearing the brunt of it while large banks and large corporation are reaping all the rewards. We are destroying the golden goose and that is the middle class consumer who in the end supports the whole structure as it currently exists.

    That perspective might be considered conspiratorial if there weren't so much data proving the truth of it. Attack these views with something substantive as I would love to be convinced that I am wrong but you can't convince me by telling me to adjust my tinfoil hat.

    Jan 10, 2014. 01:43 PM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Are Not OK And Not On A Sustainable Trajectory [View article]

    Just so you know I clicked on the like button when I meant to click on the reply button.

    Anyway why is it that you have to go here with statements like "why should anyone listen to what you say?" That is so unprofessional and juvenile and I wrote a professional position piece well supported with data. You don't have to agree with my conclusions but for you to be relevant in your comments you need to refute them with something substantive.

    And I have been wrong on my market call for one year - not a few years but this article has nothing to do with a market call - it has to do with the sustainability of the policy path we are on.

    Jan 10, 2014. 02:33 PM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economy Is Improving - Isn't It? [View article]

    Goldman does control the market along with JPM and the other primary dealer market makers and their algos. Estimates run as high as 60% to 75% of volume is algo volume and we are running at exceptionally low volume levels this year suggeting the volume percentage is even higher. The manipulations aren't a secret - they are all over the news and they are paying token fines and being slapped delicately on the wrist at such a rapid rate of late that it is hard to keep track. They are into everything and the accusations of manipulation are rampant.

    Aug 5, 2013. 09:36 AM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Remain Bearish Despite The Cyclical Bull Rally [View article]

    You are not alone in your view and I respect that. I don't agree with it but I respect it. Considering we are all time highs I would guess it won't be to much longer before one of us is proven right and one of us is proven wrong.

    If there weren't differences of opinion there wouldn't be a market as it takes a buyer and a seller to make a market.

    May 6, 2013. 05:55 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Innings Of The Bull Market [View article]
    John Maynard Keynes said that markets can act irrationally longer than some investors can remain solvent. Well, this is an example of just that - an irrational market.
    In 1973 I had a super trader that ran a few thousand dollars into $250,000 during the inflationary euphoria that prevailed at that time. Our head analyst came to me and advised that I tell my trader to take some postions off. He did and the market continued higher for a few more weeks. My trader was furious and we put the trades back on. A week later the market broke and locked limit for days. We finally got out after a week of punishment. He lost all the $250,000 and his initial investment and ended up $100,000 in deficit. The point is market tops are particlarly hard to call but when the break does come it is fast and furious. There is simply no fundamental support for these prices and the headwinds are severe.
    Sep 6, 2012. 10:39 AM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anatomy Of A Market Bubble [View article]

    "They remind me of this character from Winnie the Pooh and their theme seems to be that stocks are always over valued."

    They weren't overvalued in 1934, 2002 and 2009.

    Sep 20, 2014. 08:55 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Grand Bargain: 8 Factors That Could Drive A Surprise On The Deficit [View article]
    Moody's is now entering the fray on a credit downgrade and Standard and Poors promised a further downgrade as well absent progress toward reining in the debt.

    To avoid these downgrades Congress and the President are required to do the impossible. The reason it's impossible is simple math - not political deadlock.

    Our economy has been supported and recession held at bay soley as a function of massive injections of borrowed money back into the economy. As individuals and companies refused to borrow and spend our government has done so for us. Over the course of the last 4 years little has changed in that regrard.

    Now we are faced with the big question - if the government stops spending will recession be the result. The answer is absolutely. The country has been on life support for 4 years with no appreciable improvement. If you pull the life support plug - fiscal stimulus - the patient will die figuratively speaking.

    On the other hand, if we continue to borrow and spend and the patient remains stable but without significant improvement to the patient we are doing nothing but inching closer and closer to the inevitable conclusion - national bankruptcy.

    The situation is not much different than a patient in a hospital on life support. How much money is the family willing to spend before pulling the plug. How much money can the family spend before they arrive at the point where bankrutpcy forces them to stop spending.

    There is no win in this situation and a "Grand Bargain" is a fantasy. It's simple math and nothing else. It's an inconvenient truth that no solution exists here.
    Nov 8, 2012. 08:20 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama And Lew Say This Is Serious - Are They Just Grandstanding Or Is This Time Different? [View article]

    Your comment on the posts from the left raises a good point.

    If I write an article supporting the fiscally conservative camp about half of the comments from my readers will be negative and if I write an article that supports the fiscally liberal camp about half of my comments from readers will be negative but if I write an article that states the truth all my comments will be negative.

    Here is the truth - the fiscal conservatives are wrong in the short term and right in the long term. The fiscal liberals are right in the short term and wrong in the long term. Neither side has a solution that works in the short term and the long term.

    I will be happy to expand on that for anyone who asks for clarification.

    Oct 6, 2013. 12:26 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama And Lew Say This Is Serious - Are They Just Grandstanding Or Is This Time Different? [View article]

    Why do you keep reading these articles you claim are nonsense? I never read authors that I think write nonsense.

    Oct 6, 2013. 03:14 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment