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Joseph Stuber  

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  • How Apple Gets To $400 A Share [View article]
    "one fool can ask more than a 1000 wise men can answer"

    That suggests that the wise men aren't so very wise and the fool may one day be wise as he thirsts for knowledge.

    I see it another way. The only stupid question is the one not asked.
    Jan 13, 2013. 10:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Gets To $400 A Share [View article]

    Ok. Let me ask you a question.

    Is there any chance in your mind that we might suddenly have a 500 point down day in the dow and thereafter move to 6000 in a matter of a month or two? Can you even fathom a set of conditions that would end up with the dow at 6000 by June? And if so, what probablility do you assign to such a thing occurring?

    Jan 13, 2013. 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Gets To $400 A Share [View article]

    "Black swan" is a term invented by Nassim. Does he not get the right to define it. And doesn't he state clearly that it is predictable for those willing to examine the data:

    ". . . the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs. The same is true for the personal perception by individuals."

    I will stick to my interpretation and the bulls - ignoring the fundamental mess we are in - can cling to their irrational herd instict view until the day comes when they say "it was obvious" that we couldn't sustain this bull market and the crash was inevitable.

    Jan 13, 2013. 02:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Gets To $400 A Share [View article]
    "Everybody seems to be looking for "black swans" nowadays, which kind of defeats the point; the essence of the "black swan" theory is that they are events that are nearly, if not completely, unpredictable."

    That statement is not true at all. Black Swan's are not diffucult to predict. Much more difficult to time. As Taleb notes:

    "After the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs. The same is true for the personal perception by individuals."

    What did Stephen Utkus say about "groupthink" in his book on bubbles:

    "When under the influence of groupthink, a particular group begins to feel invulnerable; it rationalizes its behavior; and it systematically ignores external and contradictory sources of information."

    The key to "Black swan" prediction is objective analysis of the data and a resistance to being swept up in the "groupthink" mindset that precedes all black swan events and will do so this time as well.

    Nassim accurately predicted the eventual credit bubble "black swan" based on the irresponsible move of Congress to relegate MBS's to junk status by mandating that GSE's increase their participation in the low income mortgages to 55%.

    Jan 13, 2013. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Why The Recent Drop Is Unjustified [View article]
    Correction - mystique, not "mystic. I wish we could edit comments.
    Nov 13, 2012. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Why The Recent Drop Is Unjustified [View article]

    Your analysis is much more thorough than mine reagarding Apple but it fails to view the company within the context of the global macro crisis that may end up making the company's forward guidance optimistic this time around..

    A combination of shrinking margins and shrinking unit sales can result in additonal downside. With the loss of Jobs the company no longer retains it's mystic nor should it. Jobs almost insane insistence on excellence - not profit - created a huge cult following.

    Recent product releases suggest that the company defined by Jobs has moved from the ranks of dominance built on the almost insane obsession for perfection to just another company. Tim Cook ain't no Steve Jobs.

    Couple that with a global economic crisis guaranteed to shrink sales and a case can be made for futher declines.

    Nov 13, 2012. 08:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Why I Was Wrong - The Company Is Just Too Cheap To Sell [View article]
    Wow. The comments here should be sounding an alarm - no bears in the mix.

    Be careful folks - this is a classic "groupthink" situation.

    The problem with buying Apple is much bigger than Apple itself. The macro situation globally literally assures a double dip recession. Apple won't defy gravity here. A global recession will wreak havoc on those stocks who have appreciated the most and Apple certainly falls into that category.

    Please don't respond with hate mail. I am entitled to my opinion.

    Nov 6, 2012. 06:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Apple To Surge In Coming Months [View article]

    I am short Apple and several other tech stocks and quite satisfied with my profits. I added my last short positions the Monday following the QE3 announcement. I'm also long the dollar and short crude. I'm not short gold but have advised others to forget gold.

    My logic for these trades is simple - these markets have appreciated the most - excluding the dollar which has been realtaively flat - in the Bernanke bull rally and likely to fall the furthest as true global macro fundamentals take center stage.

    Those who fail to consider the massive build up of debt in the US and Eurozone and the consequences of these policies are failing to see the "forest for the trees."

    We are within a few months of once again attempting to deal with the debt ceiling as current debt ceiling surplus will be fully used in January or February. Combine that with the fiscal cliff issues that were intended to reduce the deficit and we have a confluence of macro factors that virtually assure a double dip. Throw the recession in Europe and the slowdown in China into the mix and it is really hard to see Apple's profits not shrinking dramatically.

    Keep in mind the last time we tackled the debt ceiling in 2011 and ended up with the "sequestration" cuts due to the "Super Committee's failure, Standard and Poors issued a credit downgrade for the US. They promised another in the next 2 years if Congress didn't get their act together on the debt and deficit.

    As to supply issues, In my opinion a lack of supply is by design as the global slowdown has been anticipated. I think the odds are better that you see a $200 drop than a $200 rally in the next 3 months.

    Just another perspective for what it is worth.

    Nov 2, 2012. 11:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Signs Apple Is Topping [View article]
    Does anybody give any thought to the idea that a global slow down is really happening. I think there are a lot of factors that are about to cause the public to run for cover.

    I think iPhone sales are going to suffer. Price has to play a part here.

    Am I wrong?
    Sep 18, 2012. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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