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Joseph Zhu  

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  • Solar Cell Efficiency Matters [View article]
    You could refer to JASO IR presentation of May 29, 2014,
    Percium is still classified as JASO's R&D capabilities.
    Jun 11, 2014. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Cell Efficiency Matters [View article]
    Thanks for all of your comments and logical concerns and I'd like to clarify the following points.
    1. "An absolute one percentage increase of cell efficiency could manage up to 30% cost savings for the whole PV system installation."
    It's really shocking me too at first glance, but it does exist and it's an extreme case for a KW scale residential rooftop project (That's why I put it as "up to 30%"). The cost saving of the whole system driven by cell efficiency improvement varies in different regions, the location and scale of a PV power plant, installation labor cost, etc. Here I provide more data of cost saving estimation (255w vs. 275w, utility scale) that, besides the module cost/w saving, other savings are transportation 8%(by truck); land 4%; installation 5% and BOS(including infrastructure) 3%.
    2. The cell efficiency data from each manufacturers.
    These data are all from manufacturers' release (earning reports, press, presentation from forums, etc). As each company doesn't release the information in the same way, it's a bit difficult to compare perfectly with each other. I am trying to put them all at a standard bar of commercialized product, which means these cells are in mass production, or could be scaled up easily. Anyway, the specific cell efficiency number is not the key point in this article in which I would show readers the efforts that manufacturers are doing and what this is meaning to the cost down of the PV system and the insights of PV cell makers' competitive edges.
    Jun 11, 2014. 02:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Manufacturing Capacity Of Solar Modules Matters In 2014 [View article]
    Thank you very much for the information!
    Mar 11, 2014. 08:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daqo New Energy Is Being Polysilicon Cost Leader [View article]
    As I know, the new capacity is formed by used equipments in Wanzhou plus new investment. We could pay attention to its Capex in next quarters. DQ has the experience to set up its phase 2 facility in Xinjiang, so I believe it could shorten the learning curve.
    Jan 7, 2014. 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daqo New Energy Is Being Polysilicon Cost Leader [View article]
    Thanks for your comments and I would have a few points to add:
    1. The cost referred in the article is total cost.
    2. REC's FBR process is supposed to have lower cash production cost, but less purity. REC's cash cost is almost unchanged in the past year at 12-12.5 level, and I am not sure if any cost reduction is possible. While, Daqo's modified-Siemens process has reached the same cash cost level.
    3. Again, electricity rate is the crucial factor in the polysilicon cost structure. To make a good guess on polysilicon cost, you just need to have a look on its electricity charges.
    Jan 1, 2014. 10:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Q3 Profit Check For U.S.-Listed Chinese Solar Companies [View article]
    The article is helpful of making investment decision before Q3 earning call. Just one remind is that JA has 1.8GW module capacity in my record and is not that small as you mentioned "Having smaller module capacity, JA's gross margin remains..."
    Oct 28, 2013. 10:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Chinese Solar Tax Break Is Illusive [View article]
    Last month, JKS announced that it completed 100MW projects accumulatively and forecast 200MW by 2013, 500MW by 2014. The problem is how to financing. Looking at its P&L, you will find JKS is short of cash (113M by Q2, and most Chinese PV manufacturers are facing the same issue). If we take USD1.5 per watt for utility scale PV power plant as reference, JKS’s recent offering of $70M will be burned in a minute. Of course, JKS could leverage with loans, but that will lead more interest expenses which is a burden on the way to be profitable. Holding PV plant has a cash in-flow in the long-run, but this business model may not be suitable to JKS, especially this moment with deep debts.
    CSIQ is doing project sales and most of its projects so far are outside of China. So CSIQ is less relevant to this policy until now.
    Oct 8, 2013. 10:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Feed-In Tariff Brings Solar Shares Higher [View article]
    Sep 11, 2013. 10:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yingli Dismantling Its Vertical Integration [View article]
    Thanks for your comments. I long YGE, not only because of its size in terms of volume and revenue ( Suntech once was #1), but also YGE's state-own shareholder background, i.e. Tianwei Group (This is the different point with Suntech). So debt is big problem, but not lethal as Suntech case. Current market situations look favorable to YGE, and beside the Europe market as you mentioned, Chinese domestic business is also a huge opportunity for YGE.
    Jul 30, 2013. 09:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar's Last Bet [View article]
    To answer your question:
    The common knowledge in the PV industry about c-Si prices is that it will be stable and a little bit downward this year since the consolidation is going on and imbalance of demand/supply would be improved. In addition, all PV manufactures are striving for low cost and high efficiency all the time, which will pull down the price and make grid-parity true as early as possible. So it’s no doubt that PV prices will go down, no matter c-Si or thin-film.
    In terms of conversion efficiency, CdTe will never catch up c-Si. NREL testified it and you could refer to slide 17&18 on technology part of FSLR analyst day presentation.
    Finally, FSLR is one of the best players so far in the PV industry and is visionary. This strategic move is necessary but risky to some degree.
    Apr 18, 2013. 11:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Believe SunPower Will Decline Dramatically [View article]
    It's SPWR not STP, sorry
    Mar 14, 2013. 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Believe SunPower Will Decline Dramatically [View article]
    It’s a misreading that STP will ONLY deploy about 1 gigawatt utility projects over the next 4 years and generate over $3.5 billion in revenue and approximately $1 billion of gross margin during this period. This utility figure is of predictable visibility, which is a very good start point. What will happen to the industry in next 4 years remains a lot of uncertainties, and high probability of total revenue upside includes,
    1. U.S. utility demand will enlarge with RPS target lift-up in coming years, which STP has opportunities to increase its pipeline.
    2. With cost of fossil energy up and solar PV down (this trend is in no doubt), grid parity comes true and drives the installation free from incentives in particular regions, which will help STP as well.
    3. Pending EU-china trade war will benefit STP market share expansion in Europe.
    This article is good to give straight forward and concise analysis of STP operation, but it’s not an easy job as too many factors should be taken into accounts in a 4-year time span. So this projection is not supportive enough to get a long or short conclusion.
    Mar 14, 2013. 02:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Suntech Power May Already Be In Bankruptcy [View article]
    Closing of Arizona factory starts the prelude of Suntech’s liquidating. Suntech’s main property, plants and equipments include:
    1. Wuxi plant, which is its core cell and module manufacturing
    2. Shanghai plant, which is previously for thin-film, and now for Pluto cell and module manufacturing
    3. Luoyang plant, for cell only with small capacity
    4. Yangzhou plants, mainly for ingot/wafer, and a small part of cell
    Wuxi government will keep Wuxi plant (probably core parts only) for sure every reason. Other plants may have the same fate as Arizona’s.
    Mar 12, 2013. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trina Solar's CEO Discusses Q4 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    TSL’s OM has been consecutively in red for 6 quarters and seems keeping this inertia at least another one quarter. Hopefully its OM had hit the bottom and is heading up for the following reasons:
    1. Market is growing, especially in China. China government has released several incentive policies since second half of last year when US anti-dumping tariff imposed on China PV products. The details of feed-in-tariff will probably be clarified in March, which will make the volume rush by the end of June. Anyway, China 10GW demand this year will help TSL’s shipment.
    2. Module price is stabilized and rebound due to parts of capacity shut down, which improves supply/demand balance.
    3. Profitability is the first priority in TSL’s business strategy. TSL’s shipment of 2012 is almost the same as that of 2011, which means its share was not expanded. TSL is selectively targeting regions and customers, who could bring high margin.
    4. Product cost reduction by 10% in 2013 will improve gross margin substantially.
    5. Opex reduction is planned to the level of USD200 to 250mil in 2013.
    Based on TSL’s shipment, ASP, cost and Opex discussed above, my best guess of TSL’s breakeven point is around mid 2013, when GM is of high single digit to double digit, shipment is above 500MW and planned cost/Opex on track.
    But one risk should be kept in mind that EU anti-dumping case will be decided in June, and if the terms are unfavorable to TSL, then the breakeven may postpone longer.
    Feb 28, 2013. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Buy Yingli, The Largest Solar Panel Maker? [View article]
    Another risk is the uncertainty of China policy on solar. The incentive is in transition from investment compensation (like golden sun projects) to kwh subsidy, from large scale ground-mounted farms to roof-top distributed systems. Though China solar blueprint by 2015 is raised to 35GW, it hasn’t been made in black and white on paper yet, which is likely to be finalized in March after the government term change meeting. So if the policy is positive, then China solar stocks could be expected to be another boom.
    Feb 13, 2013. 04:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment