Seeking Alpha

Josh Arnold

 
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  • Coach: Go Home Mr. Market, You're Drunk
    Fri, Jan. 30 COH 17 Comments

    Summary

    • COH has reported yet another unspeakably horrible quarter but the stock traded up seven percent on the news.
    • Nothing has changed as the fundamentals are still terrible with eye-popping declines in sales.
    • I still think COH is worth ~$22 or so and that whatever the reason for this pop after earnings, the bubble will pop at some point.
  • VF Corp Will Benefit From Cotton Prices And A Strong Dollar
    Fri, Jan. 30 VFC 3 Comments

    Summary

    • VFC has been an unbelievable success story in the past few years.
    • The company's international sourcing will benefit from the stronger dollar, boosting margins.
    • I think VFC will see upside to its $3.50 EPS estimate for this year and the stock should trade up to $80.
  • Yum Brands Looks Like A Solid Dividend Pick
    Thu, Jan. 29 YUM 6 Comments

    Summary

    • YUM shares are near the bottom of an upward-trending channel, which is bullish.
    • Currency headwinds from the stronger dollar, however, look to weigh on results.
    • But the dividend is over 2%, and will be raised for many years to come.
  • General Motors: 3.6% Yield And 40%+ Upside Potential
    Wed, Jan. 28 GM 20 Comments

    Summary

    • GM shares still have the overhang of the ignition debacle and are being punished for it.
    • At less than 8 times forward earnings, this stock is ridiculously cheap.
    • I think it will trade over $40 this year and investors can collect 3.6% in the process.
  • Home Depot: Too Hot To Handle At Current Levels
    Wed, Jan. 28 HD 7 Comments

    Summary

    • HD shares continue to be bid up despite no real improvement in the fundamentals.
    • While still a very strong business, it cannot support the current valuation.
    • I think HD should trade down to ~$90 and would be a good buy there.
  • Lowe's Reaches Nosebleed Territory; Look Out Below
    Wed, Jan. 28 LOW 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Lowe's is a terrific business and is making lots of money.
    • But the stock has gotten way ahead of the fundamentals, as giddy analysts continue to ratchet up earnings estimates.
    • I still think Lowe's is worth about $60, implying ~15% downside.
  • Campbell Soup: Buyout Target?
    Wed, Jan. 28 CPB 13 Comments

    Summary

    • CPB has been bid up in recent weeks on buyout chatter.
    • The dividend is nice at 2.7% but does not compensate investors for the risk of capital losses as CPB's valuation has become stretched.
    • I think CPB has downside to $40 as the buyout premium evaporates; at that price CPB would be a nice income pick.
  • Urban Outfitters Turning Things Around?
    Tue, Jan. 27 URBN 1 Comment

    Summary

    • URBN shares are up huge on news that the company is posting positive comps in the fiscal fourth quarter.
    • While positive comps are great, we need to see a streak of positive comps, not a fluke number.
    • We also need to see if the positive comps were due to sustained discounting - hurting margins - or if its from increased demand.
  • Gap Inc. Still A Dividend Favorite After Mini Rally
    Tue, Jan. 27 GPS 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Shares of GPS have moved up more than 10% in relatively short order in the past couple of months.
    • But with the earnings multiple still below 14 and strong earnings growth on tap, shares are still cheap.
    • I also think we'll see 12%+ dividend growth for the medium term, boosting shareholder returns and attracting income investors.
  • Chipotle Shares Already Pricing In 5,000 Locations
    Tue, Jan. 27 CMG 8 Comments

    Summary

    • CMG shares continue to defy gravity, and have recently crested $700.
    • This company continues to beat earnings expectations, but the law of large numbers will start to take hold.
    • I think shares are already pricing in 5,000 locations, and that is beyond saturation; I don't see a bullish scenario.
  • Freeport-McMoRan: Dividend Cut Imminent?
    Mon, Jan. 26 FCX 21 Comments

    Summary

    • FCX shares have been crushed in the past couple of quarters.
    • With earnings coming up, it looks like the reaction to the report will be massive, good or bad.
    • I think FCX is too risky to own right now, and I'm avoiding it on the potential for a dividend cut or suspension.
  • International Paper: To MLP Or Not To MLP?
    Mon, Jan. 26 IP 5 Comments

    Summary

    • IP has been the focus of a lot of MLP conversion chatter in recent months.
    • Shares have moved up in response but I'm not so sure the MLP conversion will happen.
    • In its current state IP is a terrific dividend growth stock with the potential upside of the MLP conversion looming.
  • Comerica Punished For Oil Decline And Low Rates
    Sat, Jan. 24 CMA 4 Comments

    Summary

    • CMA is levered to oil and rates and with both moving down CMA has been clobbered.
    • But those things are likely temporary and present significant upside for CMA.
    • I think CMA has been unfairly punished and when the panic subsides, CMA will move much higher.
  • Discover Financial Represents A Significant Value Right Now
    Sat, Jan. 24 DFS 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Discover has been crushed in recent weeks, including after its recent earnings report.
    • But the company's rapid growth isn't being priced in right now and presents a significant value proposition.
    • The fundamentals are completely intact and we'll see DFS much higher later this year.
  • PNC Financial Worth A Look For The Yield But It's Relatively Expensive
    Sat, Jan. 24 PNC 6 Comments

    Summary

    • PNC has held up during the recent selloff in financials and as a result, is more richly valued than many of its competitors.
    • PNC is very well managed and a safe pick, which is likely why it hasn't sold off.
    • The yield is decent and will be raised for the foreseeable future at mid- to high single-digit rates.
  • American Express Not Dead Yet, Looks Very Cheap Here
    Fri, Jan. 23 AXP 7 Comments

    Summary

    • AXP reported results on Wednesday night and disappointed investors.
    • The company announced 4,000 layoffs in a surprise move and took a huge build against future credit losses.
    • I still like AXP as the stock is very cheap despite the negatives from the quarter.
  • Fifth Third Bancorp's Dividend Is Now A Real Draw For Income Investors
    Fri, Jan. 23 FITB 3 Comments

    Summary

    • FITB shares have shown dismal performance for the past year.
    • The selloff from the earnings report on Wednesday has exacerbated the downtrend and shares are at their lows.
    • The yield is now 3% and could draw some buying interest from income investors, although the stock isn't cheap yet.
  • Hudson City Bancorp Still Languishing; It's A Sell
    Thu, Jan. 22 HCBK 3 Comments

    Summary

    • HCBK is still struggling to regain its footing six years after the financial crisis.
    • The company's planned merger with MTB is still being delayed and thus, there is no reason to own this stock.
    • HCBK should not be trading at $9 on its own merits so I think investors are still betting the merger will go through, limiting potential upside for HCBK.
  • Is UPS Still A Buy At Highs?
    Thu, Jan. 22 UPS 19 Comments

    Summary

    • UPS is at its highs following a strong rally.
    • But shares are still relatively cheap at less than 20 times forward earnings.
    • The blend of dividend and capital growth potential and UPS' moat make it a strong contender for a dividend portfolio.
  • IBM: A Ship That Is Taking On Water
    Wed, Jan. 21 IBM 40 Comments

    Summary

    • IBM's Q4 report saw an impressive EPS beat, but really very few other bright spots.
    • Buybacks were virtually halted as the stock tanked, an incredible development from a company that has made its living retiring shares.
    • I still think IBM is a short as the business continues to shrink and there is no direction from management.
  • SunTrust Still A Great Dividend Growth Stock But Somewhat Expensive Now
    Wed, Jan. 21 STI 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Last time I profiled STI the stock was cheap after a selloff.
    • But the stock has rallied and earnings estimates have moved down with rates so the stock is no longer cheap.
    • I have other financials I like more than STI but for dividend growth, STI can't be beat.
  • Am I Crazy Enough To Short Volatility Here?
    Wed, Jan. 21 VXX 24 Comments

    Summary

    • Recent volatility in stocks has presented yet another opportunity to profit.
    • The VXX has moved up sharply after I went long and as a result, I sold my position.
    • I'm now back to being short the VXX on a bet that the markets will calm down this week.
  • Wells Fargo: Best Of Breed With Upside To $60
    Wed, Jan. 21 WFC 12 Comments

    Summary

    • WFC has been pounded in the last two weeks as banks have completely fallen out of favor with investors.
    • The stock trades at a premium multiple but it is well deserved and will be here to stay.
    • I think Wells is worth about $60 in 2015, representing solid upside potential considering the stability and income the stock offers.
  • JPMorgan With 30% Upside After Ludicrous Sell-Off
    Wed, Jan. 21 JPM 6 Comments

    Summary

    • JPM had a record year in 2014 but that wasn’t good enough for investors.
    • Profits continue to grow despite a terrible environment for banks and investors, I believe, have incorrectly lumped JPM in with BAC and C.
    • JPM should trade with WFC and that means a price target of $73, or 30% higher from here.
  • Citi's Earnings Report Was Better Than You Think
    Wed, Jan. 21 C 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Even though investors sold off Citi on the Q4 report, there were plenty of good points to be seen.
    • I still think Citi is very well positioned for long term growth and stability after cleaning up its balance sheet.
    • Now that Citi Holdings is profitable the future is very bright and the stock is trading well below tangible book value.
  • Bank Of America: Panicked Investors Are Missing The Big Picture
    Tue, Jan. 20 BAC 24 Comments

    Summary

    • BAC’s fourth quarter was terrible and the stock sold off heavily.
    • But the underlying strength in the balance sheet and credit trends are setting BAC up for long term success.
    • I maintain my buy call as BAC’s capital returns should be higher as litigation expense has come way down.
  • Nucor: Own The Best Of Breed At Depressed Valuations
    Tue, Jan. 20 NUE 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Shares of Nucor have been pummeled in recent weeks and are making new 52 week lows.
    • Analyst earnings estimates are too high but even if NUE can hit half of its projected earnings rate, it's cheap.
    • I like NUE here for investors willing to take some risk; NUE has upside to $60.
  • Alcoa's Valuation At Ludicrous Levels: Upside To $20 In 2015
    Fri, Jan. 16 AA 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Shares of Alcoa have tanked since reporting strong fourth quarter earnings.
    • Analysts are expecting 36%+ EPS growth for the medium term but my model suggests the current price implies only 21% growth.
    • With that kind of EPS growth, trading for less than 13 times forward earnings is very, very cheap.
  • FedEx Still Cheap After The Rally: $200 Still In Sight
    Fri, Jan. 16 FDX 6 Comments

    Summary

    • FDX shares have continued to rally since my last article on the company.
    • Despite the rally I still think FDX is undervalued and will continue to move higher.
    • Macro tailwinds for earnings will continue to drive value for shareholders.
  • TJX Companies: Valuation Out Of Control
    Thu, Jan. 15 TJX 9 Comments

    Summary

    • TJX Companies has moved up substantially even after I thought the stock was fully valued.
    • This move up has caused an overvaluation in the stock.
    • I think TJX is still worth around $55 and that the stock will need to come in based on unrealistic implied expectations.
  • Ross Stores: A Great Story, But Way Overpriced
    Thu, Jan. 15 ROST 4 Comments

    Summary

    • ROST shares have moved up nearly 50% in recent months.
    • This growth has come on macro tailwinds and great execution.
    • But the stock is overvalued despite a great business and I think it has downside into the $70s.
  • L Brands In Nosebleed Territory; Take Your Profits
    Thu, Jan. 15 LB 2 Comments

    Summary

    • When I last profiled L Brands it was a value play in the mid-$50s.
    • Six months later the stock has exploded to the upside to $84.
    • The business doesn't justify this move and it's time to take profits.