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Josh Arnold

 
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  • Conn's Looks Like A Speculative Long Here
    Today, 7:42 AM CONN 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Conn's has been crushed since hitting its highs late last year.
    • In-house financing woes recently sent the stock down a further 30%.
    • Expectations and sentiment are so low that I believe CONN is a long term buy in a high risk/high reward set up.
  • Pier 1's Downward Spiral Continues
    Today, 7:27 AM PIR 1 Comment

    Summary

    • I recommended PIR last year but since that time, shares have been decimated.
    • Poor operating results have sent sentiment plummeting.
    • Last night's earnings report is more of the same and I think we'll continue to see lower prices before things get better.
  • Five Below's Expectations Will Sink The Stock
    Today, 6:33 AM FIVE 1 Comment

    Summary

    • FIVE is a growing, very profitable retailer.
    • However, expectations are too high and will cause FIVE to disappoint investors going forward.
    • I would get long FIVE on a pullback to $30 but until then, shares are a short.
  • JAKKS Pacific Is Still A Sell
     • Yesterday, 8:49 AM JAKK 16 Comments

    Summary

    • JAKK has serious operating issues that have yet to be remedied since I last visited the company's shares.
    • Falling margins and languishing revenue portend continued losses going forward.
    • I am recommending investors sell their shares and move on as enormous dilution and further losses are on the horizon.
  • Francesca's Is A Speculative Buy Here
    Yesterday, 7:12 AM FRAN 2 Comments

    Summary

    • FRAN has seen its stock cut in half in the past year or so.
    • Terrible operating results have caused investors to lose faith in FRAN.
    • The turnaround story still has a chance as soft comps will help FRAN post positive comp sales as the store base continues to expand.
  • Bank Of America: A World Without Countrywide
    Mon, Sep. 15 BAC 73 Comments

    Summary

    • BAC's earnings have been severely hampered by the company's legacy Countrywide unit.
    • If CRES can just break even, BAC will be earning close to $2 per share in short order.
    • This analysis shows taking the long view on BAC's business should pay off.
  • SeaWorld Is On Its Way Higher
    Mon, Sep. 15 SEAS Comment!

    Summary

    • Net income dropped in 2013 on one-time expenses, souring investor sentiment.
    • Digging deeper into what drove the decrease is key.
    • SEAS' operating performance doesn't justify the enormous drop in its price and I believe it will go higher on its own or get bought out.
  • SeaWorld's FCF Is Growing... For Now
    Fri, Sep. 12 SEAS Comment!

    Summary

    • SEAS has been producing more FCF in recent years as capex has declined.
    • The upgrading of orca habitats will significantly impact capex and FCF negatively in the future.
    • I believe the business can support the cost of the additional capex but without the final price tag, uncertainty exists.
  • The Ultimate Contrarian Trade: Get Long Gold Against Stocks
    Fri, Sep. 12 GLD, SPY 22 Comments

    Summary

    • Gold has been getting crushed relative to stocks for years now.
    • I recommended getting long gold against stocks in July but the trade has moved against me since that time.
    • I still think gold is a relative value against stocks right now but there are still significant risks involved.
  • Bank Of America: Buy Before Everyone Else Does
    Thu, Sep. 11 BAC 99 Comments

    Summary

    • BAC's Barclays presentation highlights a growing and profitable business.
    • All major metrics have improved with the exception of net interest yield, which is waiting for higher rates.
    • BAC has several sources of income that are trending higher and should produce earnings that fuel further stock price increases into 2015.
  • SeaWorld's Expenditures Providing Some Scale
    Wed, Sep. 10 SEAS 4 Comments

    Summary

    • SEAS' expenses are well aligned with its business.
    • Future earnings growth will be fueled by great stewardship of management today.
    • SEAS is reducing expenditures every year and thus, setting shareholders up for gains in the years to come.
  • Krispy Kreme Getting Fried Again On Weak Earnings
    Wed, Sep. 10 KKD 2 Comments

    Summary

    • KKD shares are down again in the pre-market on missed earnings.
    • Expectations that are too high are setting shares up for a fall.
    • The model works, but analysts are still far too optimistic about KKD's future.
    • There will be a time to buy KKD, but it isn't now; wait for $10 to $12.
  • SeaWorld's Margins Are Flying Higher
    Tue, Sep. 9 SEAS 1 Comment

    Summary

    • SEAS is producing higher and higher margins each year.
    • This allows EPS growth even with dips in park traffic.
    • This, combined with favorable revenue trends, should propel EPS higher in the coming years.
  • General Electric Should Now Sell Its Lighting Business
    Tue, Sep. 9 GE 12 Comments

    Summary

    • GE's sale of its appliance business is a step in the right direction.
    • The lighting business is still a drag on the consolidated company and should be sold.
    • I value GE at least $32 billion higher without the appliance and lighting segments and would like to see GE make it happen.
  • General Electric Just Hit A Home Run
    Mon, Sep. 8 GE 37 Comments

    Summary

    • GE is officially selling its appliance business to Electrolux.
    • The $3.3 billion price tag is a huge win for GE shareholders as I reckoned it was worth ~50% less just last year.
    • GE received ~17 times operating earnings for a terrible business and can now make another acquisition, buy back shares or pay down debt.
  • SeaWorld's Revenue Outlook Is Bright
    Mon, Sep. 8 SEAS 5 Comments

    Summary

    • SeaWorld's revenue stream is composed of ticket sales and merchandise/food sales within the parks.
    • The company lost some traffic in 2013 but has continued to grow its revenue per guest.
    • SeaWorld's revenue outlook is strong due to continued ticket price increases and smaller gains in food sales.
  • Coach Is Still In A Lot Of Trouble
    Fri, Sep. 5 COH 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Coach shares have been decimated following terrible operating results.
    • Continuing issues and delusional analyst estimates mean more downside is likely.
    • Shares should trade down into the $20s and could be a buy at that point.
  • The Gold/Silver Trade Is Trying To Tell You Something
    Fri, Sep. 5 GLD 12 Comments

    Summary

    • The last time I profiled the GLD/SLV ratio, I recommended getting long.
    • Now, with profits being made, I'm recommending traders take profits or flip the trade and get long silver and short gold.
    • The longer-term trend is very much intact for gold to outperform silver, but over the short term, I think we will see the opposite.
  • Costco Unbelievably Expensive At Current Levels
    Thu, Sep. 4 COST 17 Comments

    Summary

    • COST's business is run impeccably well and execution is terrific.
    • The company's growing footprint and efficiencies will ensure earnings growth for years to come.
    • However, shares are at nosebleed valuation levels and are far too expensive to hold.
  • Bank Of America: $2.76 In EPS Means Sell?
    Thu, Sep. 4 BAC 52 Comments

    Summary

    • Nomura downgraded BAC on CCAR concerns.
    • The analyst cites 13% ROE as a reason to sell the stock when current ROE is less than 5%.
    • The analyst's own ROE target implies $2.76 in EPS going forward.
  • Cracker Barrel's 4% Yield Is Too Tasty To Pass Up
    Thu, Sep. 4 CBRL 17 Comments

    Summary

    • CBRL has had some operational issues with traffic recently, but I believe its issues are transitory.
    • The company is cheap on an earnings basis, and I believe expectations going forward are reasonable.
    • CBRL's 4% yield is the reason I like this stock as it will likely become a tremendous dividend growth story in the future.
  • Bank Of America: Now Stronger Than Ever
    Wed, Sep. 3 BAC 37 Comments

    Summary

    • BAC raised $3 billion in preferred stock on Tuesday.
    • This additional cash will help it pay down its legal bill from the DoJ settlement last month.
    • BAC is in a much better position to negotiate capital returns during 2015's CCAR.
  • Gap Stores Looking Pretty Cheap Here
    Wed, Sep. 3 GPS Comment!

    Summary

    • GPS shares have tripled in the past three years on strong operating results and a favorable retail environment.
    • Gap continues to increase guidance, providing upside catalysts for the stock.
    • Share repurchases and EPS growth will continue to boost shareholder returns going forward and GPS looks cheap at less than 14 times forward earnings.
  • Ford Is Motoring Its Way Higher
    Wed, Sep. 3 F 49 Comments

    Summary

    • Ford has seen multiple years of strong sales and profit growth.
    • A strong macro environment for cars and Ford's execution have combined to double shares in the last two years.
    • Ford has a lot of fundamental momentum and operating leverage that should boost returns going forward.
  • McDonald's Shares A Buy On Dividend Growth And Not Much Else
    Tue, Sep. 2 MCD 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Shares of MCD have traded sideways in recent times on stagnant earnings.
    • Structural issues at home and in Asia have hampered growth and may continue to do so.
    • MCD's dividend growth make it a great income vehicle and dividend increases will make it that much more attractive.
  • America's Car-Mart: A Subprime Lender Masquerading As A Car Dealer
    Sat, Aug. 30 CRMT 12 Comments

    Summary

    • CRMT's business model introduces investors to undue earnings risk.
    • The company is in a boom cycle right now that inevitably will end at some point.
    • Earnings estimates are too high and the current price introduces potentially significant downside risk.
  • A 7.7% Current Yield For Your Retirement Portfolio
    Thu, Aug. 28 RAS 19 Comments

    Summary

    • RAIT Financial's 2024 Senior Notes offer investors a low-volatility, high-yield option for income.
    • The issue trades on a stock exchange in $25 increments, giving the notes higher liquidity and investor access.
    • The distributions are taxed as income, meaning this issue isn't right for everyone; understand the implications before taking a position.
  • Bank Of America - Free To Power Up To $20 By Next Year
    Thu, Aug. 28 BAC 57 Comments

    Summary

    • BAC has settled the remaining large lawsuit with the government and is now free to focus on running its business.
    • Large projected capital returns for next year along with an improving chart set BAC up for increased investor interest.
    • Fundamentals are also improving and we could see BAC beat its consensus of $1.50 in EPS next year.
  • Citigroup Offering Potential Gains For The Bold
    Wed, Aug. 27 C 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Shares of Citi have been held down by sentiment and disbelief that the company can execute.
    • Earnings estimates are too low, offering tremendous upside potential.
    • Shares will trade over book value after interest rates begin to rise and fundamentals further improve.
  • Potbelly Still Way Too Expensive
    Wed, Aug. 27 PBPB 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Shares of Potbelly have fallen by about two-thirds since going public.
    • Terrible execution has led to missed earnings estimates and disappointing guidance.
    • Estimates are still far too high for this struggling chain, and there is a lot of downside risk from here.
  • GNC Holdings Looking To Go Much Higher
    Wed, Aug. 27 GNC 4 Comments

    Summary

    • GNC's earnings expectations are far too low.
    • The repurchase program alone could be enough for GNC to hit 10%+ annual earnings growth.
    • A huge recent insider purchase provides additional validity to the long case.
  • Does SeaWorld Have A Debt Problem?
    Wed, Aug. 27 SEAS 2 Comments

    Summary

    • SeaWorld operates with a lot of debt, nearly as much as its market cap.
    • However, most of the debt is in a low-interest credit facility that doesn't mature until 2020.
    • Given SeaWorld's earnings capability, I don't see any problem with its debt load.