Seeking Alpha

Josh Burwick

 
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  • Seeking Alpha fires a shot at Bloomberg, StreetAccount [View news story]
    Start with ticker. Also you need to have a little history so its not just the most current headline on the screen. I would suggest showing the first two lines of the story and hiding the main story with the option to "expand" if the user clicks on it. That way you can show many stories on the front page without the user having to go into the Market Currents to see back stories. Keep up the great work.
    Jul 29 07:59 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Symantec: One Tech Stock That Controls Its Own Destiny On The Way To 30% Upside [View article]
    The thrust of my article was what was important to the stock- reorganization and margin leverage not their products. Their products are well known- security and storage software (ie Veritas). If I was to write a complete report on Symantec it would include their products but that wasnt my intention.
    Jul 13 03:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Red Hat: Take Advantage Of Investors Being Offsides For 10%+ Move This Week [View article]
    P/E is not the best way to look at a subscription model name. RHT collects at the minimum a full year up front, average length is 21 months for a contract. It then spreads revenue over the course of the year but the revenue is in hand. Why should a subscription model be penalized vs. prior software license model where the revenue was recognized all in one qtr? Best way in my view is FCF b/c cash doesn't lie and it gives credit for the cash they have billed and collected. On a FCF basis the stock trades at 18x '13 which is cheap for a prior 30% grower transitioning to 20% growth over the next few years. Compare that to SAAS median of 29x '13 fcf. Its also cheap for a company who is the leader in open source with $7 per share in cash, buying back stock, excellent execution (knock on wood for tonight) and a highly attractive acquisition candidate. So yes all in I think RHT is cheap.
    Jun 19 10:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Used Game Virtuous Cycle Game Over, Good Night GameStop [View article]
    I have heard from VERY good sources that new AAA games will be available for digital download day and date of release
    May 23 02:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Fiddle While FireEye Burns... [View article]
    I much prefer PANW and its starting to get interesting down here. I love their acquisition of Cyvera, I know the company and their technology is the real deal. PANW has a line item in budgets for firewalls so it's an easy sale and they have a product refresh ahead of them. In addition with Wildfire (APT) they can go into their accounts and upsell it albeit only as a cloud service for a 20% premium. Compare that to FEYE that has no budget line item and is quite pricey.

    FEYE is less about price and more about time elapsing. Need to move beyond lockup and the tech growth selloff (if it ever ends).

    Speaking of the tech selloff, a new idea of mine that I love on the long side is at an unreal level that I am adding to aggressively on this selloff. Check out PTT and find out the name and why I love it.
    May 7 03:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Fiddle While FireEye Burns... [View article]
    Understood but why did they have them disabled? They were producing a lot of false positives according to folks who were in the loop based on the Business Week article and others.
    Mar 24 09:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chainsaw Mark Cutting Into Oracle's Marine Core As Workday Looms [View article]
    The focus of the article was not to argue for an investment in WDAY, I agree the valuation is extremely frothy.
    Aug 10 02:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Symantec: One Tech Stock That Controls Its Own Destiny On The Way To 30% Upside [View article]
    Well where do I start with the response here. I have been covering technology stocks for 15 years starting at Goldman Sachs and then on the buy side at Moore Capital and others. The fact I wrote a children's book is a side interest that I did for my three boys, unrelated to tech investing but that should go without saying. In terms of stock ideas they don't all have to be about products/services, some although not as exciting can be about turnarounds and reorgs. If you want exciting products from SYMC check out their mobile security offering led by VeriSign exec. But my thrust was to highlight what I believe will move the stock not to do a full detailed report on who Symantec is, there are plenty of sell side notes for that.
    Jul 14 09:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Fiddle While FireEye Burns... [View article]
    I would use weakness here to cover a good portion of short after the correction. I think ultimate downside to 40 but not the same compelling risk:reward it was when we initiated the sell recommendation
    Apr 11 09:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Fiddle While FireEye Burns... [View article]
    Lol. Ok then. Who in your opinion is the best software analyst out there? This isn't Keith's wife is it?
    Mar 24 02:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Fiddle While FireEye Burns... [View article]
    FEYE 2014 revenue is expected to come in around $400mln+ (with Mandiant) divide that into EV of around $10 bln previously and I arrive at 25x. My calculations were when the stock was a good deal higher thus the 30x reference.
    Mar 24 12:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Fiddle While FireEye Burns... [View article]
    I published the original article 3/14

    http://bit.ly/1di2HH3

    The thesis remains the same. Actually with PANW buying Cyvera this am the competitive environment just got a lot tougher.
    Mar 24 08:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chainsaw Mark Cutting Into Oracle's Marine Core As Workday Looms [View article]
    ORCL is cheap trading at 25% discount to the S&P vs. normal 5-6% discount, but they just missed back to back qtrs including a FQ4 for first time in god knows how long so the discount is deserved to some extent. They have a decent B/S $32 bln in cash but 18.5bln in debt, $3 per share in net cash. They are buying back good level of stock- $11bln last fy which took down share count by 6%+, if they hadn't eps wouldnt be growing by much. But be careful cheap is not a catalyst while conversely don't short a stock b/c it looks expensive like WDAY and NOW. NOW and WDAY have been very expensive since their IPO but both have gone up a good amount. Need a catalyst.
    Aug 16 07:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chainsaw Mark Cutting Into Oracle's Marine Core As Workday Looms [View article]
    Thank you for the insightful comments. Seems like Larry Ellison more focused on padding his sailing resume and the future of the America's Cup than Oracle's future.
    Aug 10 01:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Citrix: Textbook Definition Of Great Risk/Reward With Catalysts Ahead [View article]
    MSFT very levered to a horrendous PC market, xbox one start is terrible given price and alienating gamers, and mobile they are nowhere.
    Jun 17 07:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
139 Comments
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