Seeking Alpha

Josh Cohen

View as an RSS Feed
View Josh Cohen's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Despite What Bill Gross Says, The U.S. Is Not Greece [View article]
    I do see your point fishfryer, and its' certainly possible over time that there will be a move towards the Yuan. However, this will be a very, very long process. First, China themselves must open up and allow their currency to become fully conveible. When this occurs, the value of the Yuan will likely rise, hurting their exports. Will they allow this??? This will also help the US export more and strengthen our industrial base further. On top of that, it will still take a long time for the rest of the world to truly feel comfortable in holding Yuan. The US Treasury market is still the most liquid in the world by far, and IMHO will remain so for the foreseeable future.
    Oct 4 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Faces A Genuine Economic Depression If The Eurozone Breaks Up [View article]
    If Europe is willing to accept a 10% drop in GDP - which is a horrific number - then you may be right. I personally do not think any western democracy will accept this type of economic contraction
    Sep 6 06:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECB Must Implement Massive QE As Lesser Of Two Evils [View article]
    I'd say the whole Eurozone is stuck Alex. Going backwards (i.e. breakup) would be an economic disaster, and going forwards will be very difficult. I stiull think best hope is QE now to buy time, and then either forward to fiscal union or Germany withdraws and rebalancing occurs.
    Jul 10 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECB Must Implement Massive QE As Lesser Of Two Evils [View article]
    I agree Alex, and you are correct, ECB balance sheet is bigger then FED's. All I am hoping for with QE is to buy time until the idiot politicians get things sorted out. If the EZ blows, we are looking at
    GD 2, mark my words. They need a fiscal union for sure.

    One idea on the competitiveness issue I have (which I may write about) is that Germany itself withdraws from the Euro. New D-Mark will soar, Euro will plunge, and that will do wonders to help resolve the competitive imbalance. The great writer Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Daily Telegraph wrote something similar. I wrote a piece mentioning this in passing here: Got an email saying I was a moron for thinking Germany would leave. However, this is being discussed in Europe more then us Yanks realize.

    Keep writing your comments Alex - they're very good and giving me some ideas!
    Jul 9 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECB Must Implement Massive QE As Lesser Of Two Evils [View article]
    Hi Alex: That's a good point, and I've been thinking about that. Realistically, without reading the legislation that actually creates the ECB, I suppose we are at a certain level just speculating what its powers are. However, I do know for sure that it previously purchased at least a couple of hundred billion of Club Med sovereign bonds in the market (not LTRO, actual direct bond purchases). So, I don't believe they face an inherent limitation. Its more the politics - especially the very public resistance from the Bundesbank. Good point though, and it makes me want to see if I can actually find the founding legislation for the ECB.
    Jul 9 01:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Hedged By Thursday As Merkel Says 'Nein!' And The Fire Nears France [View article]
    The VIX does indeed measure volatility. However, my observation is that on days where the markets has big drops the VIX soars, and on big market up days the VIX plummets. I do think you would see a high VIX during a particularly volatile period, such as post-Lehman when the DOW was swinging 500 points almost daily. In general though, my opinion is that its best use is for a downside hedge in equities. By the way, David Pinsen (first comment above) has a link in his comment to an article with an interesting way to buy put options to also hedge downside stock risks. Worth a read IMHO.
    Jun 27 04:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Hedged By Thursday As Merkel Says 'Nein!' And The Fire Nears France [View article]
    Excellent point Robin, and I almost wish I had mentioned it in my article. German politics are indeed playing a large role in all this (I have some family in Europe, and Eurobonds now would ensure they vote against Merkel). Its all about kicking the can down the road for another 12 - 18 months to keep things alive until they get the politics right. Josh
    Jun 27 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The ECB Must Engage In Massive QE To Salvage The Euro [View article]
    Asbytec is correct. One of the entire "raison d'etres" of a central bank is to be the lender of last resort. I'd say the situation in the Eurozone qualifies. I also think its a mistake to picture all this as the virtuous North vs. the lazy South. Italians are some of the most prolific savers in the world, with consumer savings rates approaching 15% (3 times ours'). Until then crisis, Spain's gov't debt to GDP was only 60%, putting the Germans and French to shame. QE is not a permanent solution for the Eurozone, but it does bring them some time, and is justified in Europe now in a way that it is no longer in the US.
    Jun 26 02:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EU Leaders Remain Deadlocked On Eurobonds: Hedge Yourself Against A Meltdown In Europe [View article]
    Right now, Germany is having none of it. Check out the latest:
    Jun 25 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EU Leaders Remain Deadlocked On Eurobonds: Hedge Yourself Against A Meltdown In Europe [View article]
    Hi pony01: Interesting you mention that. I wrote an article a couple of weeks back in whcih I mentioned that Germany itself choosing to leave the Eurozone was a possibility: One commenter said the idea was a "nutty conspiracy theory", but people are underestimating how deeply the resentful the majority of the German public is about the indefinite bailouts they are being asked to take on. Think about it - German workers should sacrifice so the French can retire at 60 rather then 62? If I were German, I'd be pretty pissed at that scenario as well!
    Jun 24 09:24 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get A 12% Yield On Alcatel-Lucent's Preferred [View article]
    Interesting. I used to work for Lucent back before they merged with Alcatel. At one point Lucent traded at a PE of 80 - crazy. Lucent fell behind as the market moved to IP and mobile, but the overall company seems to have recovered nicely. I think Lucent recently won some big mobile infrastructure contracts in the US. Didn't realize the preferreds were trading at such a discount now. Good find.
    Jun 22 01:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Opts To Extend Operation Twist, Which Will Likely Accomplish Nothing [View article]
    Let's hope equity markets keep edging up and that the next job numbers are better. Treasuries are just the hedge:)
    Jun 20 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Firms Predict Fed Will Announce QE3 [View article]
    Nor am I must admit. Well, win some, lose some....
    Jun 20 02:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • UNG Catches Fire As Natural Gas Rises 7% [View article]
    Hi, Couple quick questions:

    1) Is it too late to get in on the rally for nat gas?

    2) What are the best stocks, ETFs (stocks only) or MLPs to play nat gas? Looking for something that pays decent dividends, and could still be a beneficiary of the broad nat gas story. How about the First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index Fund (FCG)?
    Jun 19 10:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Western Economies Totter, Don't Overlook Explosive Growth In Africa [View article]
    Correct - Ghana is worth mentioning as well. Some statistics I've just researched:

    1) Ghana's GDP per capita has doubled in the last nine years from approximately $800 to around $1,700.

    2) Ghana's GDP has averaged 7.47% between 2000 and 2011, and actually went up 16% on an annualized growth rate in Q4 2011.

    3) Government debt to GDP has gone down from 125% to 41% in the last 10 years.

    It is also one of the better governed countries in Africa. Ghana certainly seems to be one of the better stories on the continent.
    Jun 19 04:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment