Josh Franklin

Long only
Josh Franklin
Long only
Contributor since: 2011
Company: JF Value Fund
XIN - how much debt XIN have?
Its only Jan 27 and i said by march - tick tock. when reverse split hits on march 7th and sale of floors hit thereafter then you'll see book value
guys stop fighting CNTF .74cents is on its way to 3.00 this year - 6.00 in commercial real estate and no debt. rental income is small but growing soon.
Did u mention they just received an order for $30 mill
CNTF 30 million dollar contract from international customer - me thinks nielsen
stock should get noticed here. potentially, real estate news from march - june
i kept buying
added back into XIN 3.30 also keep adding into CNTF
great trade for us in a terrible tape - i sold entire position above 3.92.
will buy back - keep adding to cntf
do some work on CNTF's commercial real estate portfolio
5.90 in BV at carrying value and trades at .74cts
near term catalysts exist too
Imagine another 4 - 6 interest rate cuts in 2016?!
XIN take the profits and keep paying off high yielding bonds and do another bond offering in late 2016 to set the interest rate expense even lower.
2017 - could be 10-12 stock if they buyback the 40 mill dollars worth of stock sooner than later.
keep your eyes on CNTF too
40 million buy back is great news. trading this one. good luck.
The action can change in 30 mins on any given day. Just a ton of silence from the company and tax loss selling headwinds keeping a lid on shares. I have not stopped accumulating. Fund(s) will come to the name in 2016 and start the rally to 1.50 then 3.00. I still believe it could be here by March/April(1.50 area). Need action by the company to kick it off.
bury going higher on CES news
my call for a mid dec -March run to 1.50-3.00 is on. I believe we're facing tax loss sellers which is ok.
I suspects Nielsen will use Cntf for their new device and it mean 20-40 million dollars in revenues if they reorder from Cntf.
The stock has priced destruction and if Nielsen orders revels in mobile should jump by 3,4,5,6 million qtr over qtr in 2016.
Company has stated its going to a 2.00-2.30 mill opex level in 2016.
32.4 mill in sales to close in March if not company keeps 19 mill per the company
25 mill in A/R could become cash of 10-17 mill or more in 16
Think company has merit and it's real estate is fully engaged in phase II as we speak
3.00 on news of sale and orders.
Adding here
Do your own work but I like the risk reward even at higher prices than .77 cts
Long bbry short apple ?! Did someone make that call last qtr?
Nielsen will drop 700-1000 meters off to participants in a panel. the devices will test markets for radio television etc
Nielsen works in 100 countries w/ PPM
Nielsen purchased a company called Arbitron that makes a Portable People Meter (PPM) for 1.2 bill and they buy the devices from CNTF
Shell Oil & Gas also uses CNTF's products
This is a real company with positives buildings vs ridiculous valuation
very bullish chart with the reverse head and shoulders break of 3.70
4.25 next stop
Pouki,
Usually you're correct. In today's market it's a tool to make your float small and controlled by the few which then brings the many.
ATV yesterday, EFUt small floater Kbio, Clint
Dong could make up for all his nonsense in one move - a reverse split. It's a hot subject and it would spring board us over Book value.
He could then deal with a whole new bunch of holders and fewer of them too. A win win for him and everyone involved.
We could only be so lucky! But you never know......lotto
My hope is a HK based real estate developer comes into the stock and buys 5-10% of the shares or some other investor from that area.
I don't believe they're stealing. Otherwise I would be gone. I think there's a run in the shares , it's in Dongs' hands to get it moving now.
Watch for offers to be taken out.
I'll buy more
Ok! The management team ,IMO, purposely omit material information.
Qtr was inline and outlook was the same.
Handset biz should be closed - my idea of a 4G order didn't happen nor do I feel it can happen. But at .70cts it worth having as a catalyst.
Board member appointed - incubator background - positive longer term.
I predicted Cash from floor sale however it was omitted. No word on what I would consider material information since its equal to its cash position. I was wrong. Deal could be delayed for tax purposes, funding, broken off or some other issue. I believe down payment could be partial or fully non refundable .....positive when and if closed one way or the other.
Bottom line , at 1/10 carry value and potentially 1/12-1/14 fair market value it's still a solid bet here .
The stock has to get above 1.00 if dong wants to keep social status of running a Nasdaq listed company. I believe it's important in China to be CEO of US listed company. I could be wrong but I was told it's important to the Chinese.
Q&A had issues with getting questions through. Bad luck or on purpose.
I'm still bullish and if all things equal like the risk reward.
Short interest down 62k to 269k
Thought for sure it would be increased
Speculation! I truly don't get why Dong hasn't acted on a buyback or another insider buy. Add to that, why he hasn't taken company private at 2.00-3.00.
These are things that make the logical sense to me. Doesn't take a lot to drive stock price here.
I think dong will surprise us positively in the next 3-6 months.
GL
Just my humble opinion
The funds are exited from the name - they can only come in now - positive! Shorts are near the highs at 330k but nothing to get excited about - kind of silly to short here. reverse head and shoulders pattern in place - positive. Real Estate has traction w/ 2 parks at 95% & 100% occupancy. The floors in 4th ring Beijing building need to be sold to generate income and return on investment.
Things to consider on the long side:
New incubator business with CNTF's engineers and labs already in place. a good deal of $$$ invested in their facilities - Big upside.
New board members coming to table to further establish RE business to Wall Street.
JV on new land tracts or in current Parks.
Alibaba buys Hangzhou or the whole company outright.
Land pricing supposedly has increased 7 fold on Beijing Tech Park or 8 mill to ~ 56 million. Last week's news that land pricing is dropping developers bids in Beijing further backs the deep discount CNTF trades at. One of these HK developers or funds will buy 2-5 mill shares when they stumble upon it.
Handset business was late to 4G but it should be ready now hence the huge short all in revenues. A big order uptick can happen overnight.
I see the new profit zone on the business model as 17-20 million in handset sales(15% Gm) and 1.7-2.00 mill in real estate per qtr. I see opex being dropped down to 3.50 mill per qtr from 4.3 million.
Who knows maybe a few customers ordered new 4G phones and CNTF can finally deliver them in size. That's been the true problem at CNTF the past 3-4 qtrs.
Expect a great mid Dec - March run..... 1.50 - 3.00 high.
Dongs want the stock price to reflect true value. To get there they must provide significant steps to shareholders.
Watch for good proof in that time frame.
A Hong Kong buyer will surface. Beijing Developers are backing away from land purchases as the prices have skyrocketed. Big positive for CNTF's 16 building office park on cusp on getting govt approval to lease or sell.
Handset business will be downsized to see if big order comes thru from a handful of large enterprises (Shell, Nielsen) that would make them cash flow positive in short order.
technical: top of BB is .86cts; 50 day mvg avg .71cts; 200 day mvg avg .95cts - the turn is approaching and the break thru .86 cts is the first major green light to a run to 1.52-1.80.
reverse head n shoulders pattern is in place - just need a close above .86cts and traders will be all over the name. Add a few solid press releases and/or insider buying and 2.00 is in the cards.
Google: China developers back out of Beijing land purchase as costs rise ...
Then look into Cntf mkt cap vs assets.
Sense a big rally is coming into shares.