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Josh Krause

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  • Latest On SodaStream [View article]
    Generally I consider companies amoral as they are simply in the search for profits, but the green approach does lend creedance to a preference for social responsibility.

    It's a marketing tactic as well, but sometimes serendipity arrives.
    Oct 16 07:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cash disappearance machines, 3 VIX ETPs (VXX, TVIX, UVXY) currently have $1.9B in assets despite inflows of $4.5B YTD. The design of these makes them more like options - in most environments declining as time passes. The different construction of other VIX products - VQT and XVZ - has allowed them to preserve a bit more value even as volatility erodes. [View news story]
    But these ETNs perform exactly as advertised. Where is the malpractice when something does exactly what it is meant to do?
    Oct 9 06:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cash disappearance machines, 3 VIX ETPs (VXX, TVIX, UVXY) currently have $1.9B in assets despite inflows of $4.5B YTD. The design of these makes them more like options - in most environments declining as time passes. The different construction of other VIX products - VQT and XVZ - has allowed them to preserve a bit more value even as volatility erodes. [View news story]
    TVIX is not broken. It follows the FUTURES not SPOT. You just have to know what you are trading.

    You can't start trading volatility blindly as you will get destroyed, but if you educate yourself, it can definitely be traded successfully.
    Oct 8 04:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Latest On SodaStream [View article]
    Fears of Israel attacking Iran are likley flavoring the price action as well.

    I am of the opinion that this is currently jut saber rattling and the Iranians are already experiencing significant internal pressure due to the rampant inflation. I don't expect a destabilizing nation to be able to commit to the effort required to develop nuclear weapons and I hope that hostilities are avoided.

    It would be great if there were a peaceful overturn of power to a more secular government that would not suffer the same sanctions, but I don't see the mullahs going down without a fight.

    The run up into November earnings should take us back into the 40's and possibly higher if the channel checks remain strong.
    Oct 8 11:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interview: SodaStream CEO Daniel Birnbaum [View article]
    I shouldnt but I do anyway. What started as a trade has become an investment and I need to change my thought process to match.
    Oct 1 11:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interview: SodaStream CEO Daniel Birnbaum [View article]
    Today is a great example of the complete control the shorts still have over the stock.

    Market is up 1%, SODA down 4% on no news whatsoever. Just mind blowing, but whatever, the run up to earnings will be fun this quarter.
    Oct 1 03:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility Players: The Hangover 3, Starring Ben Bernanke [View article]
    So the 50DMA test failed in spectacular fashion. XIV for a little while will be the winning player.

    I'm expecting new lows in spot and then another pop up crisis that the banksters use to test the 100/200DMA.

    Just because that would be the bankster thing to do.
    Sep 27 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility Players: The Hangover 3, Starring Ben Bernanke [View article]
    I expected a test of the 50dma which we saw today.

    While it will likely bounce.around tomorrow and Friday due to window dressing, if the current European emporer has no clothes.moment continues we could be heading to the next set of averages in the 18-19 range.

    Will have another.basic run down published tomorrow.

    If you size you trades appropriately you should be ok wven if you start accumulating XIV here. I wouldnt go too heavy yet though.
    Sep 26 11:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interview: SodaStream CEO Daniel Birnbaum [View article]
    Why do I get the impression that the shorts in SODA are operating under a ton of outdated information and biased by the collapse last year?

    It seems anything is being used as a justification to keep the stock down, well below where it's growth rates would imply.
    Sep 26 11:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream: Firing On All Cylinders Heading Into 2013 [View article]
    Fizz giz looks like a high schooler designed their website. Even at the current co2 refill prices the sodastream carbonator beats out almost all of the sparkling water on the market and is relatively even with coke, etc. especially with the rise in prices I have seen in my local stores.

    12 pack of coke not on sale for $6? Costco 12 pack for $3.33?

    The value proposition of the system is just getting more and more attractive.

    Best part is they will likely see little to no margin pressure on their refills and the syrup should be vastly cheaper to produce in bulk than canned or bottled soda.

    Thry should see much less follow through for any input cost increases.

    Fizz giz is just as much of a threat as Primo was with their waterstation.
    Sep 25 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream: Firing On All Cylinders Heading Into 2013 [View article]
    I am not worried. They have developed a tried and true method of entering new markets. Start in the upscale retailers and then build down the economic ladder. That is how they grew Europe and that is how they are growing the US market.

    Even if they enter foreign markets, as long as the go the route that has proven successful and can maintain positive cash flow without growing inventory past demand, I don't see any reason to question their expansion plans.

    The fact that they are not rushing into the US grocery and drug stores speaks highly of their longer term viewpoint of market entry.

    Their product requires an installed base to establish itself and create sustained demand. The larger the installed base, the more generalized the appeal.
    Sep 25 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream: Firing On All Cylinders Heading Into 2013 [View article]
    Besides the fact that it undercuts their bottling company partners and would cause chaos to their business plan?

    Well, there is the logistics of rolling out a competing CO2 exchange or rolling out a product with lower margins.

    Sounds much simpler to just buy them out.

    KO and PEP won't sell syrup directly to the public because it would kill their business partners.
    Sep 25 10:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Riding The SodaStream Roller Coaster [View article]
    Old news. Primo has discontinued the product. The LivingSoical.deal is likely someone just liquidating their inventory.
    Sep 23 06:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Federal regulators open a formal probe into JPMorgan's electricity trading operations, and may reportedly suspend the bank's right to sell power  in California. A preliminary finding says JPM may have submitted misleading or omitted material information in an earlier informal investigation. [View news story]
    Holder, Obama and Geithner have such a horrible track record enforcing the law in Wall Street that I would expect JPM to pass this with no problems.

    Don't worry Obama supporters, I highly doubt a wall street animal like Romney will be any better.
    Sep 21 09:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility Players: The Hangover 3, Starring Ben Bernanke [View article]
    My feeling is that we could see continued weakness through next week due to quarter end window dressing.

    Starting in October we should be ready for a test and rise. I would expect the first test to fail but at some point the market is going to prepare for the upcoming events and at vix sub15 the market is still avoiding thinking about it.
    Sep 21 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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