4 Stocks That Will Pop Or Drop In 2012 [View article]
UPS and FedEx swan dove on the first whiff of Recession. Suddenly they will outperform in 2012 as Europe Recession gets confirmed and the rest of the world soon follows?
No, I find that doubtful. Post Office volume is low margin. So low they can't make money on it. No thanks.
Pacific Sunwear (PSUN) skies 40% AH after announcing a deal with its landlords to close 175-200 underperforming stores and new financing from its lenders. For good measure, the company also announced a Q3 loss of ($0.10), beating by $0.04 on revenue of $242M ($233M expected). (PR) [View news story]
Homebuilders Are Telling You The Fall Melt-Up Is Back [View article]
If they can get a positive result and the ECB follows up with a big printing run, we could definitely see 1300+ as there is a ton of money on the sidelines waiting for the EU summit results.
Not that it would in any way fix the insolvency problem, but that is for the January crash to bring to light. Santa needs to drop fat bonuses all over Wall Street.
If we did get to 1300+, how in the hell is Bernanke going to justify QE3? Oil will probably jump to 110 at least and that will kill any growth hopes for Q1 2012.
Ready To Invest In SodaStream For The Long Haul: Part 1 [View article]
Agreed, that roll out plan makes sense.
Comparing product placement in stores is interesting. They don't get much from being in Target right now. The way they are placed in the stores you would have to know what you are looking for to buy any of their products. Live demos are out of the question in Target and even getting the Sodastream video thing was said to be out on the most recent quarterly conference call. The best we can hope for there is an endcap placement and I don't know what it would take to get that accomplished.
Walmart would be no different, no videos, no live demonstrations, unlikely end cap placement.
Sam's club, if it gets included in the Walmart deal, would be a better addition as they could have the live demonstrations that are key in selling the system.
Trader Joes and Whole Foods are another thing entirely. Both could offer live demonstrations and they would mostly be selling consumables which are the higher margin products anyway.
The key is going to continue to be market penetration. If they can get penetration high enough the grovery and conveience stores would be in, but until then they aren't going to gain anything from adding them as the inventory will likely be very slow moving and will sour the grocery stores on the product.
I know I scoffed at the system the first few times I saw it on the shelves but the first live demo I ran into was enough to sell me on giving it a try. Just like the initial scoffing at Keurig, the Soda system needs to be seen and used to be understood and appreciated. It may not be for everyone, but SODA doesn't need everyone to be wildly successful.
The major unknown is what the big boys KO and PEP do about this new competitor. They are decidedly chump change but the larger the penetration in the world markets, the more habits will change. While them selling syrup directly would limit SODA's consumables sales, it would greatly increase their penetration and validate their product line in the eyes of Wall Street. Preferrably they get bought out for 1-2 billion and we all go home happy.
Netflix (NFLX +3.8%) rallies after the House passes a bill allowing its videos to be shared through social networking sites. Meanwhile, Reed Hastings' colorful comments at a UBS conference are still making waves. Among other things, Hastings said he was previously convinced Netflix shares would soon reach $1,000, and compared his company's content-purchasing moves to the "Moneyball" tactics of the Oakland A's. [View news story]
Wow, the man is delusional. He has drowned in his own koolaid if he thought the stock was going to $1000. That alone should be enough for major investors to question his judgement.
The Moneyball approach is to pay a small amount for a great performer, not pay a huge amount for essentially garbage.
The streaming business was so successful because they did start at the Moneyball level by fooling Starz into their current content deal. Now, the market has adjusted and is charging appropriately large sums for any and all content. The A's were great at the beginning but once the market caught up to them, the lessons learned when applied to operators with deeper pockets began to again price them out of the market.
You are not going to get mass appeal by getting the key episodes of an obscure TV show and paying millions per episode. Mass appeal comes from having the new releases, that is what the competition is reaching for and that is what the customer wants. Netflix can't afford and is going for the long tail model ala their DVD section. Only problem with that is the content for streaming has proven to be exceedingly more expensive than DVD and the demand is now able to be filled by many more competitiors.
Ready To Invest In SodaStream For The Long Haul: Part 1 [View article]
I saw the Analyst that is predicting WalMart in 2012. Do we have confirmation from the company on that?
Where did you hear Whole Foods and Trader Joes?
The more places they get into the better, especially if they can have live demonstrations of the products. Whole Foods and Trader Joes have live demonstrations all the time, they would be perfect outlets.
Netflix's Latest Update Rife With Uncertainty [View article]
They depended on the Starz content to start streaming, it is effectively the cornerstone of their streaming offering.
Whether or not their customers have moved on from wanting to watch movies and now only wish to consume mass quantities of old TV reruns remains to be seen.
I am doubtful that turning Netflix streaming into such a niche product offering is conducive to the growth that is required for the company to meet current debts and obligations.
If customers or Revenues slip this quarter, expect further gaps down.
Netflix's Latest Update Rife With Uncertainty [View article]
Yes, that is true. But certainly no one will be joining Netflix because Starz content is no longer available.
They are already struggling for growth and this will only negatively impact their growth prospects.
They are going from a 16 P/E to N/A starting soon. Revenues are dependent on subscriber growth and that is likely to decrease / stagnate as they die the death of a million cuts from the competition.
No wonder shareholders want a big daddy to come along and buy up the company, as it stands it is not financially able to compete in the space anymore.
Ready To Invest In SodaStream For The Long Haul: Part 1 [View article]
Wow, Wholefoods and Trader Joes? The move to mainstream syrup sales has begun. The move to grocery stores will be a very interesting one. It is all high margin consumables so there is alot of room for profit on this move.
They must be projecting fast growth in the US installed base as they current penetration is pretty low at <1%.
Whole Foods and Trader Joes are great stores to start with, targetting the same roll out plan as the soda makers. Boutique (William Sonoma) to Middle Class (Bed Bath and Beyond) to Everybody Else (Target, Walmart). If this trend goes we should see the next move in middle class stores (Kroger, Harris Teeter) and then into Everyone Else (Food Lion, etc)
Installed base will still have alot of room to grow before we see Kroger, Food Lion, etc added to the list but that is a very interesting development.
Netflix's Latest Update Rife With Uncertainty [View article]
If I recall correctly they were saying that it was 8% of their total streaming offerings, not their movie/feature film offerings.
Alot of their recent additions have been bulk tv reruns. If they lose 50% of their movie offerings but double their bulk rerun content, is that supposed to be a net positive for the customer?
Alot of the bulk TV can be found on Hulu for free and they are still paying top dollar for what is appearing to be their long tail portion of their streaming business.
If the Starz content is the meat of their movie offerings, that should be a significant negative to the value proposition of the service, regardless of whether or not I can watch all of the Golden Girls reruns I can find.
CNBC's All-America Economic Survey says Americans plan robust holiday spending increases this year despite recession-like attitudes about the economy. The survey shows the average American plans to spend $751 on gifts this year, a 22% gain over last year's expectations. But actual data of past years has rarely lined up with forecasts. [View news story]
22% more for how many items?
Inflation alone is going to account for a big chunk of it.
Luckily this is one case where the CPI is probably more accurate what with the large electronics purchases that constant depreciate.
Netflix's Latest Update Rife With Uncertainty [View article]
Doubled its content but is losing a large portion of its streaming movie offerings with the Starz deal.
Does anyone have the breakdown of the Starz deal as a percentage of their movie offerings?
Will customers like it when they get their movie offerings decimated but it is made up for in old reruns? That doesn't sound like a very attractive proposition to me.
Homebuilders, Banks, Italy And The Fall Melt-Up Return [View article]
So, if the Fall Melt Up is back upon us, which it may be as long as we get the hand holding come to Jesus meeting picture on Friday, when will you start writing about the "Winter of Cliff Diving" or "February Foolishness"
With the Euro recession likely to be confirmed in Q1 and with pretty much all of the bad news being ignored currently in front of the Dec 9 meeting, do you think that there will be a massive cliff dive in January as the animal spirits encounter reality?
QE3 or massive ECB printing will of course take that off the table but unless the Fed somehow thinks that $4 gas is going to boost the spending power of the nation (they are crazy and far enough removed from reality that they might just think so) it will peter out even more so once the program ends.
If the Fall Melt Up is a given, when do you think the hangover will hit us?
LinkedIn: Living In Facebook's Shadow [View article]
This could easily run up back to 80 or even higher depending on how the Eurozone pans out and if Santa comes to town before Christmas.
The underwriters waited long enough to catch a bunch of new shorts and are proceeding to manipulate this pig back to the stratosphere.
Just as it did for about 2 week, LNKD will meet with gravity after the 2nd lockup expires.
Shorting or buying puts about 2 weeks before the expiration looks to be the play.
Does anyone know if they have the same 10-15 day delay on teh secondary lockup as they did on the first? Does the lockup get delayed if the earnings are announced within a certain time period?
There will be alot of people looking at the stock prior to earnings. Shorting before or after could be argued either way.
Personally I will probably wait until after earnings, maybe a small bet before earnings to capture a down move. Should be plenty of room to fall if the stock is in the 80's come February.
Time Warner Head Bearish On Netflix, Bullish On TV Everywhere [View article]
What they need to see and how they actually will see it have diverged significantly in the past.
They might come up with the right answer this time, or they might not. Them not selling Hulu does give some credence to them having a better clue than usual.
4 Stocks That Will Pop Or Drop In 2012 [View article]
No, I find that doubtful. Post Office volume is low margin. So low they can't make money on it. No thanks.
Pacific Sunwear (PSUN) skies 40% AH after announcing a deal with its landlords to close 175-200 underperforming stores and new financing from its lenders. For good measure, the company also announced a Q3 loss of ($0.10), beating by $0.04 on revenue of $242M ($233M expected). (PR) [View news story]
Homebuilders Are Telling You The Fall Melt-Up Is Back [View article]
Not that it would in any way fix the insolvency problem, but that is for the January crash to bring to light. Santa needs to drop fat bonuses all over Wall Street.
If we did get to 1300+, how in the hell is Bernanke going to justify QE3? Oil will probably jump to 110 at least and that will kill any growth hopes for Q1 2012.
Crazy market is crazy.
Ready To Invest In SodaStream For The Long Haul: Part 1 [View article]
Comparing product placement in stores is interesting. They don't get much from being in Target right now. The way they are placed in the stores you would have to know what you are looking for to buy any of their products. Live demos are out of the question in Target and even getting the Sodastream video thing was said to be out on the most recent quarterly conference call. The best we can hope for there is an endcap placement and I don't know what it would take to get that accomplished.
Walmart would be no different, no videos, no live demonstrations, unlikely end cap placement.
Sam's club, if it gets included in the Walmart deal, would be a better addition as they could have the live demonstrations that are key in selling the system.
Trader Joes and Whole Foods are another thing entirely. Both could offer live demonstrations and they would mostly be selling consumables which are the higher margin products anyway.
The key is going to continue to be market penetration. If they can get penetration high enough the grovery and conveience stores would be in, but until then they aren't going to gain anything from adding them as the inventory will likely be very slow moving and will sour the grocery stores on the product.
I know I scoffed at the system the first few times I saw it on the shelves but the first live demo I ran into was enough to sell me on giving it a try. Just like the initial scoffing at Keurig, the Soda system needs to be seen and used to be understood and appreciated. It may not be for everyone, but SODA doesn't need everyone to be wildly successful.
The major unknown is what the big boys KO and PEP do about this new competitor. They are decidedly chump change but the larger the penetration in the world markets, the more habits will change. While them selling syrup directly would limit SODA's consumables sales, it would greatly increase their penetration and validate their product line in the eyes of Wall Street. Preferrably they get bought out for 1-2 billion and we all go home happy.
Netflix (NFLX +3.8%) rallies after the House passes a bill allowing its videos to be shared through social networking sites. Meanwhile, Reed Hastings' colorful comments at a UBS conference are still making waves. Among other things, Hastings said he was previously convinced Netflix shares would soon reach $1,000, and compared his company's content-purchasing moves to the "Moneyball" tactics of the Oakland A's. [View news story]
The Moneyball approach is to pay a small amount for a great performer, not pay a huge amount for essentially garbage.
The streaming business was so successful because they did start at the Moneyball level by fooling Starz into their current content deal. Now, the market has adjusted and is charging appropriately large sums for any and all content. The A's were great at the beginning but once the market caught up to them, the lessons learned when applied to operators with deeper pockets began to again price them out of the market.
You are not going to get mass appeal by getting the key episodes of an obscure TV show and paying millions per episode. Mass appeal comes from having the new releases, that is what the competition is reaching for and that is what the customer wants. Netflix can't afford and is going for the long tail model ala their DVD section. Only problem with that is the content for streaming has proven to be exceedingly more expensive than DVD and the demand is now able to be filled by many more competitiors.
Ready To Invest In SodaStream For The Long Haul: Part 1 [View article]
Where did you hear Whole Foods and Trader Joes?
The more places they get into the better, especially if they can have live demonstrations of the products. Whole Foods and Trader Joes have live demonstrations all the time, they would be perfect outlets.
Netflix's Latest Update Rife With Uncertainty [View article]
Whether or not their customers have moved on from wanting to watch movies and now only wish to consume mass quantities of old TV reruns remains to be seen.
I am doubtful that turning Netflix streaming into such a niche product offering is conducive to the growth that is required for the company to meet current debts and obligations.
If customers or Revenues slip this quarter, expect further gaps down.
Netflix's Latest Update Rife With Uncertainty [View article]
They are already struggling for growth and this will only negatively impact their growth prospects.
They are going from a 16 P/E to N/A starting soon. Revenues are dependent on subscriber growth and that is likely to decrease / stagnate as they die the death of a million cuts from the competition.
No wonder shareholders want a big daddy to come along and buy up the company, as it stands it is not financially able to compete in the space anymore.
Ready To Invest In SodaStream For The Long Haul: Part 1 [View article]
They must be projecting fast growth in the US installed base as they current penetration is pretty low at <1%.
Whole Foods and Trader Joes are great stores to start with, targetting the same roll out plan as the soda makers. Boutique (William Sonoma) to Middle Class (Bed Bath and Beyond) to Everybody Else (Target, Walmart). If this trend goes we should see the next move in middle class stores (Kroger, Harris Teeter) and then into Everyone Else (Food Lion, etc)
Installed base will still have alot of room to grow before we see Kroger, Food Lion, etc added to the list but that is a very interesting development.
Might see my money back on my SODA shares yet.
Netflix's Latest Update Rife With Uncertainty [View article]
Alot of their recent additions have been bulk tv reruns. If they lose 50% of their movie offerings but double their bulk rerun content, is that supposed to be a net positive for the customer?
Alot of the bulk TV can be found on Hulu for free and they are still paying top dollar for what is appearing to be their long tail portion of their streaming business.
If the Starz content is the meat of their movie offerings, that should be a significant negative to the value proposition of the service, regardless of whether or not I can watch all of the Golden Girls reruns I can find.
CNBC's All-America Economic Survey says Americans plan robust holiday spending increases this year despite recession-like attitudes about the economy. The survey shows the average American plans to spend $751 on gifts this year, a 22% gain over last year's expectations. But actual data of past years has rarely lined up with forecasts. [View news story]
Inflation alone is going to account for a big chunk of it.
Luckily this is one case where the CPI is probably more accurate what with the large electronics purchases that constant depreciate.
Netflix's Latest Update Rife With Uncertainty [View article]
Does anyone have the breakdown of the Starz deal as a percentage of their movie offerings?
Will customers like it when they get their movie offerings decimated but it is made up for in old reruns? That doesn't sound like a very attractive proposition to me.
Homebuilders, Banks, Italy And The Fall Melt-Up Return [View article]
With the Euro recession likely to be confirmed in Q1 and with pretty much all of the bad news being ignored currently in front of the Dec 9 meeting, do you think that there will be a massive cliff dive in January as the animal spirits encounter reality?
QE3 or massive ECB printing will of course take that off the table but unless the Fed somehow thinks that $4 gas is going to boost the spending power of the nation (they are crazy and far enough removed from reality that they might just think so) it will peter out even more so once the program ends.
If the Fall Melt Up is a given, when do you think the hangover will hit us?
LinkedIn: Living In Facebook's Shadow [View article]
The underwriters waited long enough to catch a bunch of new shorts and are proceeding to manipulate this pig back to the stratosphere.
Just as it did for about 2 week, LNKD will meet with gravity after the 2nd lockup expires.
Shorting or buying puts about 2 weeks before the expiration looks to be the play.
Does anyone know if they have the same 10-15 day delay on teh secondary lockup as they did on the first? Does the lockup get delayed if the earnings are announced within a certain time period?
There will be alot of people looking at the stock prior to earnings. Shorting before or after could be argued either way.
Personally I will probably wait until after earnings, maybe a small bet before earnings to capture a down move. Should be plenty of room to fall if the stock is in the 80's come February.
Time Warner Head Bearish On Netflix, Bullish On TV Everywhere [View article]
They might come up with the right answer this time, or they might not. Them not selling Hulu does give some credence to them having a better clue than usual.