Seeking Alpha

Josh Krause

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Josh Krause's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Chicago Fed's Charles Evans sees a "liquidity trap" that is causing the supply of savings to exceed the demand for investment even at very low interest rates, arguing again for rates to be tied to improvement in unemployment unless inflation rises above 3%. "There is simply too much at stake for us to be excessively complacent while the economy is in such dire shape," he says.  [View news story]
    I have no problem with this as long as they use CPI w/ Food & Energy.

    What, we can't QE because any QE will send Oil to the moon?

    Well isn't that a damn shame.

    Let's get Volcker back in the Fed chair. Sure it will hurt, but at least an adult will be seated at the head of the table.
    Dec 5 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Under-The-Radar Stocks With 20% Upside In December [View article]
    The stock got chopped in half and the big money left the party. Now it's retail and shorts battling it out.

    The farther we get away from the July Massacre the more likely the big money is to get back into SODA. Some of the guidance they gave was a bit mixed once you started looking into details and currently any hiccups are interpreted as cardiac arrest.

    They can report great numbers but until the big money starts believing again, it could easily stay in this 28-35 trading range.

    SODA is trading in America but for the most part are very new to the market. There is alot of fad talk and comparisons to CROX but it simply is too new in America so it gets alot of traction.

    I'm long SODA and am selling calls against my shares to lower my cost basis. I hope that by next report they have learned the further lessons from the last two reports and absolutely kill it.
    Dec 5 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greenberg Calls Netflix, Facebook Talk A 'Silly Prediction' [View article]
    Disney has a stake in Hulu, why would they want any part of Netflix?
    Dec 4 07:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SAP announces it's acquiring cloud HR software provider SuccessFactors (SFSF) for $40/share in cash, or $3.4B. The price represents a 52% premium to SuccessFactors' Friday close. The deal comes 6 weeks after Oracle's (ORCL) deal to acquire cloud customer support software firm RightNow (RNOW), and a month after SAP said it was forming a plan to expand its cloud offerings.  [View news story]
    This is a $3 billion deal. The ORCL/RNOW deal was a $1.3 billion deal.

    CRM is currently sitting at $16 billion market cap.

    These acquisitions are small in comparison.

    Let's look at the cash stockpiles of potential suitors:

    Microsoft - $54B cash, $13B debt - Can afford it but already offering competing service
    Oracle - $31B cash, $14B debt - Can barely afford it but already offering competing service
    SAP - $5B cash, $5B debt - Can't afford it, Can hardly afford SFSF


    Why buy CRM when you can buy a competitor and attack CRM's already horrible profit margins?

    CRM might pop on this news, or it might tank. Low priced competition with massive cash stockpiles buying up the competition does not mean that CRM is in the running to be acquired, they are simply too big to buy out so the competition will more likely just take their customers with competing services instead.

    When ORCL bought RNOW, CRM was down for two days afterwards. What will happen now? Who knows but this acquisition makes CRM less likely of an acquisition target, not more. It also makes it harder for CRM to continue to their acquisition spree to hide losses through tax credits as this will only make future acquisitions more costly for everyone.
    Dec 4 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Beware: SuccessFactors' Valuation Is Frighteningly High [View article]
    Yowza, that is a whole lot of people that are going to lose a whole lot of money. 22% of the float was short. Yikes.
    Dec 4 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "The SEC is the most grossly inept failed group I've ever worked with," laments Eliot Spitzer, claiming the agency repeatedly "saw evidence [of wrongdoing] and ignored it." Spitzer also claims the "structural misrepresentations" he considers responsible for the financial crisis remain in place. (yesterday)  [View news story]
    Agreed. I still go back to the repeal of Glass Steagall as the beginning of the end. It opened the floodgates and transformed our banking system into a giant casino.
    Dec 2 05:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "The SEC is the most grossly inept failed group I've ever worked with," laments Eliot Spitzer, claiming the agency repeatedly "saw evidence [of wrongdoing] and ignored it." Spitzer also claims the "structural misrepresentations" he considers responsible for the financial crisis remain in place. (yesterday)  [View news story]
    He has his flaws but he is spot on with his opinion of the SEC.

    After reading the book written by the guy that brought Madoff to the SEC on multiple occassions starting in 1996 I have absolutely no respect for the organization.

    It's a great read. Gives you a good eye into the level of "enforcement" that is used on the big players of Wall Street.
    Dec 2 05:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This week is the start of a year-end rally that should take the S&P to at least 1,350, JPMorgan's Thomas J. Lee believes. He recommends a "cyclical cocktail" of stocks, including financials such as BAC and MA, casinos like WYNN and LVS, and a bunch of others. UBS' Jonathan Golub thinks it's better to wait, anticipating better entry points in 2012.  [View news story]
    1350 by the end of the year? 1000 points in 3 weeks?

    Sure if they announce QE3, China speeds back up and Europe fixes all of its problems on Dec 9, then sure, 1350 is possible.

    No QE3, China continues to slow down and Europe does nothing on Dec 9, then sure 1150.

    Then we can enjoy the new year with $120 oil and $2000 gold.
    Dec 2 05:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Employment data is due out this morning, with economists expecting that the growth in nonfarm payrolls accelerated to 125,000 in November from 80,000 in October, although that is unlikely to have been enough to bring down the jobless rate from 9%.  [View news story]
    Wouldn't there be some variation, statistically we should not have downward revisions 100% of the time unless they are completely worthless at forecasting.
    Dec 2 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Employment data is due out this morning, with economists expecting that the growth in nonfarm payrolls accelerated to 125,000 in November from 80,000 in October, although that is unlikely to have been enough to bring down the jobless rate from 9%.  [View news story]
    Nothing better than being able to downward adjust your employment numbers every month to ensure that declines don't appear as severe as reality would indicate.
    Dec 2 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream Can Deliver As Much Fizz As Investors Need [View article]
    On the conference call they mentioned this. I think they said that Target gave the kaibosh to that idea.

    The display in Target is hardly even that. In every Target I've been in they have been positioned in the rear of an aisle and usually blocked off by large Water Coolers so you can only find them if you know where to look.

    Bed Bath and Beyond is a great setup. Even Costco has a good setup. SODA needs to work with Target on their placement in their stores, it is not conducive to much customer interest.
    Dec 2 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With The World Embracing QE, Here's How To Play It [View article]
    Couldn't their decision just be a reaction to their continuing slow down as seen in the Nov ISM?

    We won't know until Dec 9, but to say that the Fed decision = QE3 so buy everything may be a bit of an overreaction.

    If they don't present a solid fix on Dec 9, the market won't react well. Even if they do I don't see any rally lasting through the end of the year.
    Dec 1 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce 10Q: Stock Expense, Deferred Revenue And CMOs [View article]
    CRM has shot up along with the rest of the market. If the market continues up, we could see 130 again.

    That is until they announce Q4 results. If they disappoint again, there will be many less big boys drinking the kool aid.
    Dec 1 03:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • With The World Embracing QE, Here's How To Play It [View article]
    But the announcement is no where near QE3. It simply lowers the rate on a program that was already put in place in September.

    This is not LSAP, this isn't even the Twist, this is just a headline that the market is chasing for the Santa rally.

    Same thing happened in 2008 and the markets swooned in the next weeks. It doesn't fix anything, it doesn't even try to, it's just a confidence game being played to kill the shorts.

    In September they announced the same program at 1% and the market crashed until October. Now they change it 0.5% and it is suddenly QE3+?

    I don't see where the "This is QE3" calls are coming from.
    Dec 1 03:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Stocks That Didn't Make It To The Rally [View article]
    Add SODA to the list. Down 3% yesterday for some unknown reason. Shorts had to pile in somewhere I guess.
    Dec 1 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,361 Comments
920 Likes