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Josh Krause  

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  • Salesforce And The Sell Side Kool-Aid [View article]
    I know, I was just trying to identify potential suitors.

    Microsoft, Oracle, SAS, all the big boys in the market already offer competing services and as such are actively competing with CRM and would likely not be interested in acquiring CRM for anywhere near their current market cap.

    The only thing that they have that the competition wants is the customer base. There is no patent portfolio, no market breaking technology just a sales team with a competitive product offering.

    I don't see anyone willing to pay more than $10 billion for the company which is a significant discount from their current valuation.
    Nov 21, 2011. 09:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Narrowly Escaping Disaster [View article]
    Amy printing in todays financial industry climate would result in massive inflation in commodities and yes equities but it would not impact wage growth for the majority and would just end up making the rich hyper wealthy and annihilating what little of the middle class that still exists in this country.

    We already printed trillions and we are getting stagflation. You want to go 10x that amount and shoot for super stagflation instead.

    I hear the economy works great when gas is $6 a gallon.
    Nov 18, 2011. 11:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce And The Sell Side Kool-Aid [View article]
    Agreed. At 15 billion CRM is too large for a take over target.

    Who would want it? GOOG? Why bother? Why enter a new market by buying the most expensive product offering that has gone from profitable to unprofitable in one year's time?

    That is the only valuation metric that gives me some idea of what fair value is on CRM that does not end up with like 20-45.

    I would love 45. LOVE. But I just don't see it happening soon.
    Nov 18, 2011. 04:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Though many analysts are defending Salesforce.com (CRM -10.9%) following yesterday's FQ3 report (I, II), JPMorgan's John DiFucci isn't one of them, lowering his PT to $115 in a report titled "Slowing Business Momentum." DiFucci, who asked a pointed question during Salesforce's earnings call, is concerned about the fact new subscription billings growth dropped to just 12% Y/Y, well below a 34% consensus.  [View news story]
    The first cracks are starting to form in CRM.

    Slowing sales when two huge competitors are actively trying to steal your competitors and crowd you out of the market? Who could have seen that coming?

    Add in the fact that CRM can't post a profit without aggressive accounting and stock dilution through massive stock option awards.

    Will be interesting to see what happens when all the sales people realize that their stock options are going to expire worthless if the stock continues to trend down.

    Mass exodus of sales people to the competition? Possible in the medium to long term.
    Nov 18, 2011. 04:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce And The Sell Side Kool-Aid [View article]
    If it does make it back up the 130's range I'm just going to get some more.

    I'm not going to cover until around $90.

    The only fair value estimate I can make (sense PE, etc are useless on a GAAP basis for CRM) is Price / Sales. The RightNow deal says that fair value for CRM is ~7x sales (though that is rich due to CRM not making money vs. Right Now making a profit) so that would put my fair value for CRM around $90.
    Nov 18, 2011. 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • End Of LinkedIn's Lock-Up Period Does Not Bode Well For Investors [View article]
    Hey at least you didn't cover NFLX at $186 (from $220) the day that their stock imploded thinking that it couldn't go down that fast.

    That was $3000 dollars I'll never see.

    Hopefully my LNKD puts will make me some money next week.

    I jumped out of YOKU puts right before the lockup expired. Another $2000 that I missed out on. Going to stick with LNKD this time.
    Nov 18, 2011. 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: Latest Jim Cramer Favorite To Be Crushed By Mr. Market? [View article]
    That was your first mistake. You listened to Cramer.

    Lehman is fine! NFLX at 300 is still a great deal!
    Nov 18, 2011. 04:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce And The Sell Side Kool-Aid [View article]
    If they miss or disappoint on deferred revenues next quarter you mught see a more violent move down but I could easily see it trading in a range until the next report.
    Nov 18, 2011. 04:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Narrowly Escaping Disaster [View article]
    Inflation is low? So the 30% increase in a boatload of household goods and gas is just small potatoes?

    Great let's debase the dollar some more and see how high we can get commodities go!
    Nov 18, 2011. 04:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce And The Sell Side Kool-Aid [View article]
    Here, here!

    If they have another flat to down quarter of deferred revenues (likely due to oncoming recession and increased competition) this pig will take another few steps down the ladder.

    Implode? Probably not. Controlled demolition? Likely.
    Nov 18, 2011. 03:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com's CEO Discusses Q3 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    The stock has been in a downtrend from 160 and is now looking to play around with the 52 week low of 109.

    If it trends along with the rest of the market, pure technical trading and liquidations could take it down to fair value around 90.

    While I think it is actually worth around 60 I would probably cover my short if we did actually get to the 90 level.

    I can't see the company imploding in such a spectacular fashion but I can easily see it continuing to trend down as competition increases and growth slows.

    It is currently priced for rapid growth but Oracle and Microsoft will greatly impact their potential in the future.
    Nov 18, 2011. 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: Latest Jim Cramer Favorite To Be Crushed By Mr. Market? [View article]
    Just because everyone will say it again. The forward P/E is based on non-GAAP basis. The company is going to lose money for 2011 and will show a PE of N/A after the next quarter report.

    These reporting sites are doing a great diservice by continuing to reporting the forward PE on a non-GAAP basis.
    Nov 18, 2011. 02:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com (CRM -9.6%) remains sharply lower post-earnings, as its FQ3 beat and healthy revenue guidance get offset by so-so EPS guidance (the result of aggressive spending) and soft billings and deferred revenue figures. Goldman, Deutsche, and Jefferies are staying bullish, with Jefferies noting management's CC comments about expecting strong deferred revenue growth in FQ4.  [View news story]
    Flirting with the 52 week low now. Sub 109 we could see a nice little waterfall into the double digits.
    Nov 18, 2011. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Cloud Will Be Open Source And Ubiquitous [View article]
    CRM should also get some negative winds from the commoditization of the cloud.

    Will have to look into the short case for those three companies.

    Commodization of the internet led to extreme multiple contraction. Cloud could be of the same flavor.
    Nov 18, 2011. 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com's CEO Discusses Q3 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    As far as I know he is just sketchy as hell. The company uses every possible aggressive accounting trick to ensure their stock picture is as good as it can be.

    Reality may be catching up to them if the deferred revenue and bookings continue to slow down or exhibit slower growth.

    Only makes sense that growth will slow now that Oracle and Microsoft are specificially targteting their business and customers.

    Wouldn't know that from talking with Beinoff of course. Everything is amazing when you swim with dolphins every week.
    Nov 18, 2011. 02:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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