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Josh Krause

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  • The S&P 500 Tests Support Again Thursday [View article]
    And since the time this was posted the S&P dropped below the 50 day and is currently at 1216.

    Will it rally from here? The Shadow knows....
    Nov 17 06:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn Lock-Up Period Expires Monday, Buy Puts [View article]
    There was an extension due to earnings falling within a certain time period before the lockup expiration.
    Nov 17 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn Lock-Up Period Expires Monday, Buy Puts [View article]
    It will be interesting if it does. Why anyone would want to be long LNKD after Friday I can only guess.

    They may be betting that the underwriters can manipulate it on Monday but that is such a risky bet to take.
    Nov 17 05:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix On The Road To Recovery With New Deals [View article]
    You could do the same for RIMM circa a year ago.

    "RIMM is still the leader in smartphones, plus they are expanding internationally which is a good long term investment, and we're confident that RIMM has a promising future."

    At least RIMM is a viable buyout candidate. Why buy NFLX and take on the $3.5 billion non dischargeable content obligations?

    Short NFLX and making money for once.
    Nov 17 05:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix On The Road To Recovery With New Deals [View article]
    So much for NFLX ever getting back the Starz content.
    Nov 17 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: Not All Cash Is Born The Same [View article]
    Could be that Oracle and Microsoft are crowding them out.

    Nahhhhh Bienoff swims with Dolphins every week, he'll make it through.
    Nov 17 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still Exasperated With Salesforce.com's Ascent [View article]
    $90 is very aggressive.

    I could easily see it opening at 120 tomorrow because they are Cramer's love child.

    I heard that Cramer had Beinoff come on his show prior to the conference call. They are going to damage control as much as possible.
    Nov 17 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Longs Hold Advantage In Playing Salesforce.com After Evening Earnings [View article]
    AMZN definitely will have alot of pressure on it. Might start entering a short position. Maybe cover some CRM and switch over to AMZN.
    Nov 17 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3Q Earnings Preview For Salesforce.com [View article]
    Well the stock has tanked in the last two days and is now trading under the 200 day moving average. If they don't wow the markets we could see sub 100 as soon as tomorrow.

    I honestly couldn't tell you where they will end up in AH but my gut says up because then my short will be as painful as I fear it may be.
    Nov 17 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn Lock-Up Period Expires Monday, Buy Puts [View article]
    I'm just hoping it follows the trajectory of YOKU post lock up. It did today with a bounce on Thursday before expiration.

    If it closes down on Friday we could se quite the waterfall on Monday.
    Nov 17 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn (LNKD +5.4%) shares are up sharply today after its offer of 8.75M shares priced at just a fractional discount yesterday. Combined with Angie’s List (ANGI +21.8%) shares jumping post-IPO, it seems that investors still can’t get enough of Internet and social media companies.  [View news story]
    I wouldn't put much faith in the up move unless it maintain's through Monday.

    Could easily fall apart next week.
    Nov 17 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: Not All Cash Is Born The Same [View article]
    Revenue guidance will likely be slightly above what the market expects because they already know what their revenues are going to be.

    EPS guidance on a GAAP basis will likely be guided down as it has been guided down every quarter for the last few quarters. FY2012 EPS guidance should remain negative if nothing else.

    On a non-GAAP basis they should meet or a small beat. Of course it should, they can always just award more shares instead of paying salaries to ensure they make their numbers.

    I don't see them blowing out any numbers on the report. I would be very surprised if they did beat EPS by more than 0.01 - 0.02 or Rev's by more than 10%.

    FY2013 estimates will be interesting to see. If they forecast a lower revenue growth rate that there should be some negative reaction.
    Nov 17 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Momentum Stocks That Could Fall Victim To Negative Sentiment [View article]
    How many times does it take to realize that the forward PE for CRM is N/A. Whatever data source you are using uses the non-GAAP numbers for Forward P/E while the current PE uses GAAP numbers.

    On a P/E basis CRM is the most absurdly values of the bunch but for some reason all of the reporting sites are allowing them to compare PEs on an apples to oranges basis.

    This has to be the 20th article in a month that uses CRM's forward P/E and compares it to the current P/E and says there will be growth.

    There will not be growth. They will be posting a loss for 2011 so their forward PE is N/A as in they are going from a profit on a GAAP basis in 2010 to a loss in 2011.

    No EPS growth.
    Nov 17 01:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: Not All Cash Is Born The Same [View article]
    But CRM has had a 4% dilution as Paulo indicated above, so the comparison you are making is inaccurate as well.

    How do the numbers work with the historical 4% dilution we have seen from CRM?
    Nov 17 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn (LNKD) prices its 8.75M share secondary offering at $71 per share, just slightly below its $71.56 closing price. Shares +0.7% AH.  [View news story]
    Should be worth? Somewhere between $45 and $65.

    As far as action on Monday goes I can't really get a clear picture until tomorrow. If it does follow in the footsteps of YOKU we will see a bounce on Friday but close well down and a continuing downtrend into next week.

    While that would be great for my puts that are currently well into the red, I don't know how feasible that timetable will end up being.

    The clause that allows the underwriters to manipulate the stock to maintain a positive selling price has me questioning how well it will mirror the YOKU action.

    Friday will be very informative.
    Nov 17 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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