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Josh Krause

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  • General TVIX Has Been Demoted: Use VIX ETFs Instead [View article]
    That is because VXX does not track spot VIX. It is based on a mix of front month and one month out VIX contracts.

    For example, if it is May the value of VXX is being determined by the price of the May, June or July contract with the mix determined by the date of May. So VXX will never track spot VIX. You can't trade spot VIX effectively with any of the VIX products on the market.

    Check my So You Want To Trade Volatility? for more info.
    May 16 07:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why New York Community Bancorp Is My Favorite Financial [View article]
    If a car can't run it's a lawn ornament.

    As of their most recent report I am showing:

    Total Assets: 43B
    Total Liabilities: 37B
    Total Equity: 6B

    500M in Long Term Debt vs. 118M in Quarterly Net Income

    Compare that to BAC:

    Total Assets: 2.18T
    Total Liabilities: 1.95T
    Total Equity: 232M

    404B in Long Term Debt vs. 653M in Quarterly Net Income

    Yeah, please go on about how super over-leveraged NYB is compared to BAC and the TBTF crew.

    Yes, NYB is mainly a vehicle for dividend collection. The stability shown through the 2008 crisis is more than enough to recommend it over the TBTF mod squad.
    May 16 01:33 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) recently began talks with premium TV channel Epix (owned by VIA, LGF, and MGM) over a deal to stream movies to Apple TV set-top boxes and a future TV set, Reuters reports. Netflix (NFLX) currently has exclusive rights to streaming Epix movies, but that deal ends in September, and a new one is expected to be costly. Apple previously was rumored to be interested in exclusive rights to the English Premier League.  [View news story]
    NFLX vs. AAPL, I wonder who I would put my money on...
    Apr 27 05:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herb Greenberg calls chatter kickstarted by Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster on a Research In Motion (RIMM -5.1%) bankruptcy absurd given the tech firm's balance sheet and cash flow. [View news story]
    I completely agree. More likely chatter is to get a better price on a buyout.

    The company has no debt, $1B in cash and is still profitable (for now).
    Apr 3 11:18 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Upside Is Limited In The Near Term [View article]
    Twice a day unless you are using miltary time.
    Feb 29 09:51 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse attempts triage on Netflix (NFLX) - in a steep slide following the announcement of Comcast's VOD move - saying the impact will be limited as Comcast's service is only offered to existing subscribers. Netflix remains at the day's lows, -3.4%.  [View news story]
    So VZ and Comcast are coming out with competing services. Soon enough Time Warner Cable and AT&T might make similar annoucements.

    Netflix's valuation and future survivability depends on large amounts of future growth. As the competing services pile up, the growth will be divided into smaller and smaller piles. Even if Netflix remains supreme, it's growth prospects are limited and with the poor cash situation and immense content obligations, that is not a good thing for the future of the company.
    Feb 21 04:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix (NFLX), which ended Q4 with less than 24M streaming subscribers, is aiming to eventually have 60M-90M, or 2x-3x as many as HBO, according to a presentation from Reed Hastings. His logic: Netflix is cheaper than HBO, doesn't require a cable subscription, offers a wider selection of content, and features a personalized UI. It has also been labeled as "rerun TV" due to its focus on older shows. (earlier)  [View news story]
    Yeah, it's not like one would expect the CEO to know that 90M domestic households is basically impossible.

    A CEO that knows a rough estimate of their addressable market? Now that is simply asking too much.

    Hastings selling his book and at this point is looking increasingly desperate.
    Feb 16 09:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jan. Nonfarm Payrolls: +243K vs. consensus of +125K, +203K (revised) in Dec. Unemployment 8.3% vs 8.5% expected. Avg. hourly earnings +0.2%. to $23.29. Workweek unchanged at 34.5.  [View news story]
    Through the magic of government statistical wizardry.

    This economic report is exactly why there is going to be a massive correction in the future.

    It is the tool of bubble blowers. Good headline numbers with insanely horrible fundamentals.

    Great for getting a fresh crop of bagholders in at the top.
    Feb 3 09:39 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jan. Nonfarm Payrolls: +243K vs. consensus of +125K, +203K (revised) in Dec. Unemployment 8.3% vs 8.5% expected. Avg. hourly earnings +0.2%. to $23.29. Workweek unchanged at 34.5.  [View news story]
    Shorts initiated due to the 1330 topping range are going to get crushed by this.

    That would include me.
    Feb 3 08:37 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PIIGS Look Beautiful And Why The Bull Move Is Just Getting Started [View article]
    With the LTRO Europe has kicked the can for at least a year barring Greece hard default breaking it all apart.

    The market is currently also pricing in the Bernanke plan of letting Inflation run rampant savers and old people be damned.

    There is going to be a reckoning for this bubble blowing, that much is certain. Of course no one will have seen it coming, much teeth gnashing and astonished reactions will occurr when it is revealed that as soon as rates were allowed to rise and liquidity removed from the system, everything froze up all over again but worse this time.
    Feb 1 02:46 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock markets have already digested a significant amount of very bad news, so there's no reason to fear an impending collapse, says Marc Faber. A rare turn for the uber-bear, who's know for his dire predictions. "My view is simply: relax." We have major support going back to August 2010, and even if the S&P does manage to drop, the Fed will just step in with another round of quantitative easing.  [View news story]
    The Fed will save us all. Prosperity through Dollar destruction!
    Jan 19 08:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Shorting Groupon Worth The Cost? [View article]
    I say wait until 2 weeks before the lockup expires then load the truck with puts.

    Big money is going to ensure this stock stays above it's IPO price until lockup, no way they are going to let themselves lose money on a stock that is so easy to manipulate with such a low float.
    Nov 16 10:34 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Gold And Oil Signaling QE3 Coming? [View article]
    QE3 with oil above $90 a barrel? Wow, that would be some balls. They didn't do QE3 in August or September when oil was significantly lower.

    How they would think that $100+ oil would be in any way beneficial to the economy, I just don't see. I hear the economy really starts humming when gas approaches $4 a gallon.
    Oct 26 04:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Netflix, Competition Keeps Getting Uglier [View article]
    Why is it being a side business and being extremely harmful mutually exclusive?

    If I open a lemonade stand and Whole Food opens up homemade lemonade as part of a home delivery program, it might not bring much to Whole Food's bottom line but will annihilate my venture.

    Netflix is a kayak in a sea full of cruise ships. The cruise ships are doing their own thing and their wake could capsize the Netflix boat without specifically meaning to. They can outspend them 10 to 1 without actually trying to do so.
    Aug 17 10:35 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trillion Dollar Coin Idea Goes Mainstream [View article]
    Well, as long as who ever is issued the coin never uses it or borrows against it the coin should not be inflationary.

    The only entity I could see doing that would be the Fed and I have 0% faith in them to not borrow against or use it in any way.

    If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.
    Jul 29 03:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment