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Josh Young

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  • What Seeking Alpha Is Doing To Prevent Paid Stock Promotion [View article]
    Great article. Amit, that's an interesting idea.
    Mar 27 06:53 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Willi-Food International Should Be Taken Private For A Potential 100% Gain [View article]
    Couldn't they just stop paying Nasdaq the exchange fees or violate some of the exchange's reporting requirements? Getting kicked off the exchange would likely knock the stock price down substantially, potentially allowing for a buyback on the cheap (or for the controlling shareholder to buy more shares directly from minority investors on the cheap).

    Not saying this will happen, just exploring the possibility. Thanks for your previous quick response.
    Mar 24 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Willi-Food International Should Be Taken Private For A Potential 100% Gain [View article]
    Igor,

    Interesting writeup. Isn't it theoretically possible that they could de-list from the nasdaq intentionally to drive down the share price and then either buy back at much lower levels or engage in other shenanigans to take value from the minority shareholders? It doesn't seem to me at first glance like there are sufficient structural protections in place, particularly considering the people involved. Perhaps you can elaborate.

    Thanks,
    Josh
    Mar 24 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Frac Sand Pricing Could Go Parabolic In Q3 2014 [View article]
    Michael,

    The crux of this article seems to be that the prospectivity of Parshall is effectively identical to the prospectivity of Sanish, and that the prospectivity of EOG's Gonzales county acreage is effectively identical to the prospectivity of PVA's Gonzales county acreage, and that therefore the difference in productivity must be the completion technique / using more sand.

    Neither of these are true. Not even close. Even Whiting and PVA will tell you that EOG's land in their respective areas is better than Whiting's/PVA's (I've asked them, and I asked Magnum Hunter, and they all said the same thing- EOG's rock is better). Might be worth spending some more time digging into, because since these claims are not true, there may not be the wave of sand utilization you're expecting.

    Specifically, there are geologic features under EOG's land in Gonzales county (such as grabbens, I believe) that are not present elsewhere in Gonzales. And the geology of Parshall and Sanish are well documented and not identical.
    Mar 6 03:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tuscaloosa Disappointment Validates Investment Thesis, Negative Implications For Other TMS Players [View article]
    Austex has over $20 mm in cash - between that and operating cash flow, they can fund this year's drilling program. Why would you guess they drill 22 wells in a year when you know they drilled 4 wells just in January and have been increasing the number of wells they drill? 22 wells would mean them cutting their drilling activity in half. Making up numbers for the sake of being contrarian is idiotic.
    Feb 24 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tuscaloosa Disappointment Validates Investment Thesis, Negative Implications For Other TMS Players [View article]
    JF, you should take a closer look at both ATXDY and HK. I actually owned HK at the current price level a few years ago when it was RAME, and sold into the runup after Floyd Wilson took over.

    You should notice the relative debt levels and relative capital efficiency. ATXDY is one of the most capital efficient oil and gas companies in North America. The same cannot be said (not even close) about HK. Also, HK has billions of dollars of net debt, while ATXDY has almost 0 net debt.

    HK has traded down a lot, but it still trades at a high multiple due to its debt. ATXDY, with its low debt levels and very high historic and current capital efficiency, trades at a very low forward multiple.

    And you can validate the exit rate assumption by looking at actual well performance - easily gets you to 3,000 boepd exit 2014. Wells come on at a 30 day rate of ~80 boepd and exit a year at ~30 boepd. They drilled 4 wells in January, a rate of 48 wells per year. If you assumed every new well was ~6 months old at the end of the year, thats 2400 boepd + the current 940 boepd (minus maybe 300 boepd for natural decline). Getting you to 3,000 boepd by the end of the year. Perhaps they miss by a little and grow by 250% instead of 300%. Still huge growth...
    Feb 21 06:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baytex Bids To Buy Out Aurora Oil: Investment Implications [View article]
    Randy,

    There is a 50 to 1 conversion between the Australian shares and US ADRs (and then a USD to AUD conversion should be taken into account).

    I've made numerous investments in the company at different prices, ranging from ~12-16 cents per share, translating to $5.40-7.20 per ATXDY share.

    Before making a comment like the one you made above implying unethical practices, it is worth doing a modicum of diligence. And ultimately, even though my cost basis happens to be very close to the current share price, that should not affect the investment prospects going forward one way or the other. I wish you were right and that I had bought my shares for 1/60 of the current price!
    Feb 20 07:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Baytex Bids To Buy Out Aurora Oil: Investment Implications [View article]
    Obviously not
    Feb 14 12:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baytex Bids To Buy Out Aurora Oil: Investment Implications [View article]
    Thanks. LEI is a "cleaner comparison" from an acreage perspective but Austex has the rapid production growth and Australian listing in common.

    I think Baytex would be a more likely joint venture candidate for LEI than an outright buyer, but either way, it could be very beneficial for LEI to have Baytex active in the area.
    Feb 11 10:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Boardwalk Blows Up - $3 Billion Of Market Value Evaporates In One Day [View article]
    Devon is both not particularly cheap AND not growing particularly quickly. Austex is trading at ~1/3 of its proved reserve value and is growing rapidly.
    Feb 11 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boardwalk Blows Up - $3 Billion Of Market Value Evaporates In One Day [View article]
    I agree regarding best of breed independents. But since they are so expensive, I go down a level and invest in rapidly growing E&Ps trading at large discounts to reserve value. Like Austex.
    Feb 11 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boardwalk Blows Up - $3 Billion Of Market Value Evaporates In One Day [View article]
    That is certainly one perspective. But CVX has been SHRINKING while OUTSPENDING cash flow. Not a recipe for good investment returns going forward. I wrote an article about this - http://seekingalpha.co...

    The point of my article is that just because something seemed "safe" or "secure" does not mean that it is, despite strong historic returns. And that despite seeming "unsafe", certain smaller cap investments can offer a substantial margin of safety and can outperform going forward.

    Looking in the rearview mirror at investment returns only gets you so far.
    Feb 11 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boardwalk Blows Up - $3 Billion Of Market Value Evaporates In One Day [View article]
    If you're looking for interesting undervalued, high growth energy stocks, you might find this one interesting: http://seekingalpha.co...

    And if you're looking for yield, you might find this one interesting: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 11 01:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investing In Abraxas Could Be Your Best Bet For 2014 [View article]
    I'm curious, if you think its a good investment, why don't you own it? Your disclosure says you don't own it.
    Feb 10 11:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Utica Shale: Antero Revises Down EUR Estimates For Condensate Window [View article]
    Agreed, although Cabot is putting upper higher EURs than that.
    Feb 7 07:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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654 Comments
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