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Josh Young  

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  • Drop In Oil Prices 'Going To Make Things Ugly... Quickly': Dallas Fed Data Out [View article]
    Major, thanks for the comment. I'm honing in on what specifically to focus on. I've take some small specific positions that I'm not yet ready to talk about.

    I actually got this idea from an astute friend who lives in Houston. He pointed out that the homebuilders were way over their skiis in the area. But I think before the homebuilders get hit, ... gets hit
    Dec 29, 2014. 07:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Drop In Oil Prices 'Going To Make Things Ugly... Quickly': Dallas Fed Data Out [View article]
    Right? It will be interesting to see how they word next month's release!
    Dec 29, 2014. 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Drop In Oil Prices 'Going To Make Things Ugly... Quickly': Dallas Fed Data Out [View article]
    bbro, thanks for the comment. I agree there is some difference between the areas, but my understanding is that a lot of the mineral rights and shares in companies are held by people based in Dallas, Austin, etc. And that oil money has been used to fund a lot of the growth in those areas, similar to how Dubai has no oil but is a beneficiary of neighboring Gulf states that have oil
    Dec 29, 2014. 04:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas manufacturing activity picks up pace [View news story]
    Yorick, there were orders that are being filled, but new orders are harder to come by, so things may slow down next year
    Dec 29, 2014. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Liquidity Curse [View article]
    I haven't seen this phenomenon in the oil and gas sector
    Dec 29, 2014. 02:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas manufacturing activity picks up pace [View news story]
    I wrote an article about this, waiting for it to get through the editorial process...
    Dec 29, 2014. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Asset Manager BlackRock Gave Me The Willies About 2015 [View article]
    Really interesting article. How do you think local recessions in the US might fit in? http://seekingalpha.co...?
    Dec 28, 2014. 08:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Black Bear Is Unleashed [View article]
    This is really interesting. I talked about one of the implications here in the US from lower oil prices here... http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 26, 2014. 12:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy 'Crisis' Is A Drop In The Bucket [View article]
    I think this article downplays the risk of actual underlying economic issues from the drop in Oil price. See whats happening in Texas ... http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 26, 2014. 12:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Sector Layoffs May Soon Alter The Jobless Claims Trend [View article]
    Thanks for sharing your perspective. I think it will be worse than many people think, as I discuss in my article about a potential recession in Texas in 2015 http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 25, 2014. 09:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Sector Layoffs May Soon Alter The Jobless Claims Trend [View article]
    Thanks for your on the ground perspective. Some of those high cost players are being forced to lay down rigs at the start of 2015 (like Goodrich Petroleum, which is cutting capex more than 50% from 2014). And others may be forced as they violate bank covenants and go into bankruptcy or restructuring...
    Dec 25, 2014. 09:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    David, were you personally expecting a recession in Texas in the early 80s? Please tell us more about that experience.

    Oil is down 45%, GDP is going to be down 4%+ just from the direct effect of the price of oil, plus more likely from add-on effects. I could be wrong by 3% and it would still be a recession, all that means is negative GDP
    Dec 25, 2014. 08:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    David and DJ, the situation is changing for the worse in real time. Wait until 1900 rigs actively drilling becomes 1500 rigs by the end of Q1 2015 (and that may be a high estimate, some analysts are calling for a 50% fall in rig count). San Antonio is economically tied to Eagle Ford development activity and Houston is more generally linked to the oil and gas industry.
    Dec 24, 2014. 08:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    Agreed, I think it being a global headquarters for energy companies could be a double edged sword - those companies are cutting back too, and may lay off people, cut expenses, reduce travel budges, etc.
    Dec 24, 2014. 08:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    A 4% movement in GDP is material and will obviously have follow-on effects.
    Dec 24, 2014. 08:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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