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Josh Young

 
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  • SandRidge Energy: Disappointing Asset Sale Reinforces Valuation Concerns [View article]
    I considered writing an article that would have said pretty much exactly what this one said, but probably wouldn't have included as much detailed analysis. Well done, and thanks for doing all this work on Sandridge and sharing it with us.
    Jan 10 12:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Great Investment Idea: AusTex Oil Is Trading At 1/3 Of Proved Reserve Value, Growing 300% Per Year [View article]
    Thanks for the question. Not very common.

    I should have included in my article this little factoid- Austex raised some money recently and hired PWC to do a fairness opinion. PWC said the deal was "reasonable but not fair" because the stock is worth 50-100% more than it was trading for. This is extremely uncommon, as firms are hired to give fairness opinions on the understanding they will say the deal is fair! So PWC was incentivized to give a low estimate for Austex's value, and they still said it was worth at least 50-100% more than the deal price (deal was at ~$7 per shares)!!!
    Jan 10 11:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Prices Surging, Driving Return Potential For This Leveraged Natural Gas Liquidation Play [View article]
    Thanks. To be clear, there is risk of loss here, but I am tentatively optimistic and the expected value looks a lot higher than the current price.
    Jan 8 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taipan Resources: Applying The Pre-Drilling Multi-Bagging Hypothesis Indicates Huge Short Term Upside Potential [View article]
    Really interesting article. Are there other risks here / reasons why it might be trading at such a big discount to its risked NAV? For examply, HDY trades at a big discount but is being investigated for potential FCPA violations.
    Jan 6 06:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • High Yield, High Risk: Royalty Trust Wealth Destruction And Opportunity Update [View article]
    I'd have to take a closer look at it. Didn't screen as particularly cheap / attractive.
    Jan 3 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Yield, High Risk: Royalty Trust Wealth Destruction And Opportunity Update [View article]
    Thanks, I appreciate that!
    Jan 3 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Yield, High Risk: Royalty Trust Wealth Destruction And Opportunity Update [View article]
    SRF looks risky. Uses leverage and charges 1.25% management fee per year to invest in large, liquid stocks. Closed end funds can trade at large discounts to NAV, while this one trades at a small discount to NAV.
    Jan 2 01:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Prices Surging, Driving Return Potential For This Leveraged Natural Gas Liquidation Play [View article]
    Good question - hopefully there is a bidding war going on right now. Longer delay might mean higher price.

    Good news for nat gas prices (and bad news if you live in the midwest or northeast) - http://bit.ly/1cipuLq
    Dec 30 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cold Winter Could Lead To Massive Natural Gas Futures Price Spike [View article]
    I wrote an article that ties in to this... http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 23 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cold Winter Could Lead To Massive Natural Gas Futures Price Spike [View article]
    Interesting article
    Dec 23 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Prices Surging, Driving Return Potential For This Leveraged Natural Gas Liquidation Play [View article]
    Is this a question or a suggestion?

    In this case the risk/reward was compelling, and the liquidation should happen in the near term.
    Dec 22 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper: Irrational ETF Selling Could Mean A Multi-Bagger [View article]
    People were saying the same thing about junior (small and/or non-producing) gold mining companies two years ago - "they're not iron ore miners, they don't have the same funding issues". I'm not saying copper prices will come down, but mining funding is not isolated by commodity. Same/similar capital providers, lenders, public equity investors, etc.

    I question cost of capital assumptions here, and since it is an undeveloped project, cost of capital will drive likelihood of development and actual returns to shareholders if development takes place.
    Dec 21 06:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper: Irrational ETF Selling Could Mean A Multi-Bagger [View article]
    Financing availability for junior mining companies has gotten progressively worse over the past two and a half years.

    Kingsley, I appreciate your response but don't see much "discounting" in your article. What does the NPV look like with a 20% cost of capital? Baupost has compounded money for its investors, net of fees, at ~20% per year, so they likely target a notional return 2x that (especially considering risk adjustments).
    Dec 21 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper: Irrational ETF Selling Could Mean A Multi-Bagger [View article]
    Is there financing available for a project like this? My understanding is that project finance for mining projects is quite limited at this point.

    And if there is, what do you think it will cost? Is an 8% discount rate appropriate if the cost of capital might be significantly higher? What have recent financings looked like, how much capital has been deployed into them, what cost were they at, etc?

    It seems like the risk here is that this just doesn't get developed, which could mean this equity could be a 0. To be clear, I don't own the stock nor am I short it, but I have been pitched a LOT of mining companies in the past couple years.
    Dec 20 05:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Prices Surging, Driving Return Potential For This Leveraged Natural Gas Liquidation Play [View article]
    It is levered, but it has other issues too that may weigh down the stock. Not that different from XCO. I prefer to make "cleaner", simpler investments.
    Dec 19 08:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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