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Josh Young

 
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  • Confession Time: Miller Reveals The Truth [View article]
    I'm not sure this analysis works. I don't think Miller's assets are necessarily proportionately similar to Buccaneer's. Doesn't Miller own platforms, equipment, etc? And isn't it hard to assess the development potential of each company's resources without doing some work on them?

    I like the quantitative approach and have done well shorting stocks with numerous red flags, just would like some more clarity on the analysis above.
    Sep 19, 2014. 03:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Conoco Phillips Is Not Exiting The North Sea [View article]
    I went through my calculations again and figured it out. Those numbers from the British Government website are cubic meters. Adjusting it to barrels per day from cubic meter per day increases it by just over 6x. And I used 150,000 cubic meters per day production as a baseline to account for higher recent levels of production in the past year and for associated gas production.
    Sep 18, 2014. 07:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Conoco Phillips Is Not Exiting The North Sea [View article]
    I think we're saying the same thing. I'm saying the production multiple is meaningful, and in this case it means that there is a huge untapped resource. And you're saying, don't use the production multiple because there is a huge untapped resource. We agree - there is a huge untapped resource....

    I'm just saying that I think current production is an important metric in an area like the North Sea. Note the numerous disappointing or failed asset sales in the region in the past couple years, including Marathon, Talisman, Valiant, etc. Note the bankruptcy of ATP and the imminent bankruptcy of END, despite large "untapped resource". The big stand out in all of these is this COP potential transaction.

    I triangulated my production estimate from a few different places, including estimated maximum field level production from articles I linked. It looks like its ~8,000 boepd (that number didn't include gas production), not 800.
    Sep 18, 2014. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Conoco Phillips Is Not Exiting The North Sea [View article]
    Michael, it looks like it is 100,000 barrels per month, not per day. Note it says barrels per month on the top of the chart.

    For a field at the level of development Clair is at, production multiples are very relevant. In this case, the very high price per barrel currently being produced tells you there are substantial non producing reservoirs / contingent resource.
    Sep 18, 2014. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Conoco Phillips Is Not Exiting The North Sea [View article]
    Interesting article and discussion. I'm surprised you didn't discuss the sale metrics (I did in an article published yesterday ... http://seekingalpha.co...)

    The metrics imply a surprisingly high value for Clair. Good news all around, and supportive of the argument you're making.
    Sep 17, 2014. 01:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Approach Resources Q2 Earnings Announcement: What To Look For [View article]
    Brent, interesting article. Any thoughts on why its down so much after reporting? It looks like they missed on "earnings" but beat on production ...
    Aug 5, 2014. 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An End To Our Relationship With Yahoo, A New Era For Equity Research [View article]
    I think this is an interesting idea.

    Have you thought about tracking mobile views again and paying authors for those instead of a fixed additional amount of money? As an author, I like to be able to know how many people are actually reading my articles, matters more to me than getting paid a little more.
    Jul 25, 2014. 03:19 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparative Analysis Of Interoil [View article]
    On the contrary, this article was entirely fact driven and motivated. Note subsequent performance. One stock up almost 100%, one stock down substantially. Whoda thunk.
    Jul 24, 2014. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter And Spartan Surge After Equity Offerings [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. In my last article I suggested Spartan could double, and I think the recent acquisition will help them along the way. They certainly acted more quickly than I expected, perhaps indicating there are many attractive deals available. As they buy more assets, I may revisit.

    What is striking to me is the huge, obvious quality difference between the two companies mentioned in this article.
    May 28, 2014. 04:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spartan Energy May Double: Stellar Management Track Record, Cheap Valuation, And Production Outperformance [View article]
    Thanks Patrick. The "Americans coming" should help SPE, as investors look for high performing management teams and companies that consistently beat guidance as they look to deploy money into a market that is "new" for them.

    SPE raised guidance recently and Canadian investment banks reiterated their buy recommendations, saying investors misunderstood the last quarterly update and pointing out that Spartan is now outperforming in the Detrial play in Central Alberta as well as in SE Saskatchewan. I may write an article about this, it is interesting to see this kind of effect. We may see the opposite next quarter, when the acquisition financial impact is felt and Spartan shows MASSIVE q/q revenue growth, cash flow growth, etc.
    May 16, 2014. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Energy Is The Way To Play The Buda Oil Discovery [View article]
    Interesting article. Have any of USEG's Buda wells under-performed recently? You mentioned the best well - what does the worst well look like, and what is the average well so far?
    May 14, 2014. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GeoMet Preferred: The Little Preferred Issue That Has Outperformed Linn And Magnum Hunter [View article]
    The company sold their assets at the worst possible time - right before a spike in natural gas prices had a chance to reset natural gas asset values upwards. I owned some GMETP and have sold it.
    May 13, 2014. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spartan Energy May Double: Stellar Management Track Record, Cheap Valuation, And Production Outperformance [View article]
    Global Investor, thank you for the comment. I think Spartan Management's past performance is so exceptional that, while it does not guarantee future returns, it does give a good indication of what they might be.

    Pinecrest was involved in the Slave Point play, and blew up twice - once upon failing to drill economic primary Slave Point wells, and a second time when an aggressive waterflood program failed to deliver.

    Spartan is already delivering massively economic wells, way outperforming expectations. I don't think Pinecrest is a good analogy. Perhaps Paramount is a better one.
    May 9, 2014. 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spartan Energy May Double: Stellar Management Track Record, Cheap Valuation, And Production Outperformance [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I think its more interesting now than it was a month ago, driven by the recent operational outperformance. Before it would have been purely a bet on their track record, but now there is tangible evidence they are doing it again...
    May 5, 2014. 01:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spartan Energy May Double: Stellar Management Track Record, Cheap Valuation, And Production Outperformance [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I'd point to recent substantial outperformance both in aggregate production and specifically in the set of 10 wells recently reported in SE Saskatchewan which came on at 3x the expected 30 day IP rates...
    May 4, 2014. 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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