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Josh Young  

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  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    Try lyft or uber. I used lyft in oklahoma city and got a ride in 3 minutes.
    Dec 24, 2014. 08:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    Richard48, could you try to quantify your critique?

    I'd argue that the first 30% of the revenue is easy - 25% typically goes to mineral rights owners who collect royalty payments and are most often local landowners. And ~5% goes to the state in severance taxes.

    Some of the rest goes to salaries and equipment to keep the pumps running and to transport the oil to a refinery.

    And all of the rest and then some goes to drilling new wells - the oil industry, particularly onshore US, outspends its cash flow.

    I see very little slippage in terms of oil revenues net actually leaving the state.
    Dec 24, 2014. 04:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's: 5 Oil Stocks To (Not) Buy Now And The Importance Of Using The Right Metrics [View article]
    They are having trouble maintaining their current production levels while spending all of the cash they're generating. They were having this problem when oil was at $100, which means it may be a lot harder for them now that it is closer to $55.

    They are certainly better positioned than many levered small cap oil and gas producers. But they trade at high valuations considering assets that have peaked production in aggregate.
    Dec 24, 2014. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's: 5 Oil Stocks To (Not) Buy Now And The Importance Of Using The Right Metrics [View article]
    Thanks Paul. That would require a whole other article
    Dec 24, 2014. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Approach Resources: Approaching A Bottom? [View article]
    I think your NGL price estimates are way too high. According to the Wall Street Journal, NGL prices are down 40% since July, while you have them modeled as flat. http://on.wsj.com/13ETQLA
    Dec 24, 2014. 01:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    Cross, perhaps economically but that is all. Texas is a great state, it may just have some near term economic issues due to the sudden drop in oil prices.
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    I hope so too. In the meantime, I am not saying the state government is necessarily in trouble, just that there will likely be an economic slowdown because of the huge drop in oil revenue and oilfield activity.
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    I have one of those bumper stickers, I was given it in 2009 from an investment research firm.
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    GDP isn't measured by government income tax receipts, it is a measure of economic activity. the barrels of oil produced and sold in the state contribute to GDP...
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    Alex, there are many ways to look at this. Could look at it versus 2008/2009 or other past downturns like the early 80's. Could compare it to other countries. Could do more guestimates. I may write more articles to analyze it from some of these other perspectives. But I think this was a good start.
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brad Thomas Positions For 2015: Attractive Opportunities Present Themselves In REITs [View article]
    Interesting interview
    Dec 23, 2014. 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Consistent Risk/Reward Speculation That I Have Ever Found [View article]
    Cost to borrow eats up most of these profits
    Dec 22, 2014. 12:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cheap Oil May Be Here To Stay [View article]
    Specifically, you should look at F&D + LOE. And you shouldn't just look at EOG's economics, EOG is only producing a small fraction of the oil in the US. You should look at the more marginal drillers as well, and if they aren't drilling and might go bankrupt, you should incorporate the absence of that production in forecast production levels.

    I think the result of this analysis is clear. The price of oil will be a lot higher in two years than it is today.
    Dec 22, 2014. 12:17 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cheap Oil May Be Here To Stay [View article]
    I think there is some confusion here about what half cycle economics mean. I think the actual marginal cost of production is a lot higher than what you're showing.
    Dec 21, 2014. 10:52 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan And The Good, The Bad And The Ugly Truth Regarding Falling Oil Prices [View article]
    In your article, which you referenced, you/the company said that every $1 change in the price of WTI would affect pre tax earnings by $7 million.

    $50 (change in oil price) x $7 million (change in pre tax earnings per $ change in oil price) = $350 million
    Dec 16, 2014. 04:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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875 Comments
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