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Josh Young  

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  • Energy Sector Layoffs May Soon Alter The Jobless Claims Trend [View article]
    Thanks for your on the ground perspective. Some of those high cost players are being forced to lay down rigs at the start of 2015 (like Goodrich Petroleum, which is cutting capex more than 50% from 2014). And others may be forced as they violate bank covenants and go into bankruptcy or restructuring...
    Dec 25, 2014. 09:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    David, were you personally expecting a recession in Texas in the early 80s? Please tell us more about that experience.

    Oil is down 45%, GDP is going to be down 4%+ just from the direct effect of the price of oil, plus more likely from add-on effects. I could be wrong by 3% and it would still be a recession, all that means is negative GDP
    Dec 25, 2014. 08:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    David and DJ, the situation is changing for the worse in real time. Wait until 1900 rigs actively drilling becomes 1500 rigs by the end of Q1 2015 (and that may be a high estimate, some analysts are calling for a 50% fall in rig count). San Antonio is economically tied to Eagle Ford development activity and Houston is more generally linked to the oil and gas industry.
    Dec 24, 2014. 08:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    Agreed, I think it being a global headquarters for energy companies could be a double edged sword - those companies are cutting back too, and may lay off people, cut expenses, reduce travel budges, etc.
    Dec 24, 2014. 08:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    A 4% movement in GDP is material and will obviously have follow-on effects.
    Dec 24, 2014. 08:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    Try lyft or uber. I used lyft in oklahoma city and got a ride in 3 minutes.
    Dec 24, 2014. 08:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    Richard48, could you try to quantify your critique?

    I'd argue that the first 30% of the revenue is easy - 25% typically goes to mineral rights owners who collect royalty payments and are most often local landowners. And ~5% goes to the state in severance taxes.

    Some of the rest goes to salaries and equipment to keep the pumps running and to transport the oil to a refinery.

    And all of the rest and then some goes to drilling new wells - the oil industry, particularly onshore US, outspends its cash flow.

    I see very little slippage in terms of oil revenues net actually leaving the state.
    Dec 24, 2014. 04:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's: 5 Oil Stocks To (Not) Buy Now And The Importance Of Using The Right Metrics [View article]
    They are having trouble maintaining their current production levels while spending all of the cash they're generating. They were having this problem when oil was at $100, which means it may be a lot harder for them now that it is closer to $55.

    They are certainly better positioned than many levered small cap oil and gas producers. But they trade at high valuations considering assets that have peaked production in aggregate.
    Dec 24, 2014. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's: 5 Oil Stocks To (Not) Buy Now And The Importance Of Using The Right Metrics [View article]
    Thanks Paul. That would require a whole other article
    Dec 24, 2014. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Approach Resources: Approaching A Bottom? [View article]
    I think your NGL price estimates are way too high. According to the Wall Street Journal, NGL prices are down 40% since July, while you have them modeled as flat. http://on.wsj.com/13ETQLA
    Dec 24, 2014. 01:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    Cross, perhaps economically but that is all. Texas is a great state, it may just have some near term economic issues due to the sudden drop in oil prices.
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    I hope so too. In the meantime, I am not saying the state government is necessarily in trouble, just that there will likely be an economic slowdown because of the huge drop in oil revenue and oilfield activity.
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    I have one of those bumper stickers, I was given it in 2009 from an investment research firm.
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    GDP isn't measured by government income tax receipts, it is a measure of economic activity. the barrels of oil produced and sold in the state contribute to GDP...
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    Alex, there are many ways to look at this. Could look at it versus 2008/2009 or other past downturns like the early 80's. Could compare it to other countries. Could do more guestimates. I may write more articles to analyze it from some of these other perspectives. But I think this was a good start.
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
880 Comments
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