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Josh Young  

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  • Kinder Morgan And The Good, The Bad And The Ugly Truth Regarding Falling Oil Prices [View article]
    I'm not sure what you mean by that. I'm not short KMI, just wanted to get your input. Can you clarify what your view is on a) the likely $350 million drop in ebitda (from your article) and b) increased credit risk of KMI suppliers
    Dec 16, 2014. 04:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan And The Good, The Bad And The Ugly Truth Regarding Falling Oil Prices [View article]
    "every $1 change in the average WTI crude oil price per barrel will impact the CO2 segment by approximately $7 million pre tax"

    Oil is down ~$50 from its peak, so that should have an impact of ~$350 million. Thats roughly 5% of KMI's EBITDA. That is neither minute nor inconsequential.

    Also, no one is talking about all of the projects that won't get filled, nor are they talked about the negative credit impact this has had on the upstream companies that supply KMI with product. Lower credit suppliers implies higher required rates of return from projects (because of greater risk they default on their take or pay contracts with KMI).

    The midstream stocks have not been impacted too much so far, but if this oil downturn lasts for much longer, they will be.
    Dec 16, 2014. 04:20 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan And The Good, The Bad And The Ugly Truth Regarding Falling Oil Prices [View article]
    What about Kinder Morgan's CO2 / oil producing business? It would seem like that would be a relevant point to bring up, as falling oil prices will negative impact the cash flow generated from that business segment.
    Dec 16, 2014. 03:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC November Crude Production Numbers [View article]
    Interesting article, thanks for sharing
    Dec 10, 2014. 09:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ivy League Returns: Are They For The Rest Of Us? [View article]
    This looks like it would have been an even more interesting article if it weren't missing the charts
    Dec 9, 2014. 04:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying California Resources  [View instapost]
    Interesting article. I think if Oxy thought the Monterrey would be successful, they would have kept it.
    Dec 9, 2014. 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Markets: Sentiment And Lame Thinking Are Currently In The Driver's Seat [View article]
    Great article. I like that you incorporated the drilling permit drop, seen here:
    Dec 4, 2014. 02:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil And Gas: USA 1, OPEC 0 [View article]
    Great article. We're already seeing oil drilling permits down 40-50% in one month!
    Dec 3, 2014. 11:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New U.S. oil and gas well permits plunge 40% in November [View news story]
    I wrote about this yesterday. Seeking Alpha should do a better job of linking its "breaking news" articles to actual articles written by contributors previously.
    Dec 3, 2014. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Special Situation: New IPO Crashes 90% Out Of The Gate On Unexpected Dump [View article]
    Can you tell us more about the "0 cost" shares given to "consultants"? what service did the consultants provide? Who are they?
    Oct 21, 2014. 05:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MLPs Overpaying For Assets? Atlas May Have Overpaid Versus Cabot In Recent Eagle Ford Transactions [View article]
    "In connection with the acquisition, Atlas Energy, L.P.'s (ATLS) E&P development subsidiary will purchase eight wells that have been drilled but not completed and 53 undeveloped drilling locations for approximately $115 million, which is to be paid in the twelve months following closing."

    They left out the important detail that Atlas Growth is buying it from ARP (can someone provide written evidence of this?). The simplest understanding of the press release was the basis of my article. It is bizarre that they didn't clarify the related party transaction.
    Oct 16, 2014. 12:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rising Marginal Cost Of Oil Production Highlighted By Kashagan Expense Escalation [View article]
    I would argue that the current operators are among the best in the world, and that their project management issues are driven by the mindbogglingly complex nature of the project. The easy to measure costs are supplies and labor, the harder to measure costs are the indirect ones associated with increasingly complex projects. Both are escalating.
    Oct 14, 2014. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Athlon Deal Highlights Exxon Permian Steal [View article]
    Robert, thanks for the comment and the eloquent explanation. Much appreciated. If its ok with you, I may quote and cite some of it in a future article.
    Sep 30, 2014. 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Athlon Deal Highlights Exxon Permian Steal [View article]
    Did you see Devon's JV partner just took a $1.6 billion writedown for their Wolfcamp / Cline JV? I wouldn't hold my breath on Mitchell Ranch.

    We'll see on the rest, but I haven't seen BBEP buy anything in the area in a while, and LINE just sold down their interests in the area. And even at its "most blocky" it is still a scattered acreage position, which is not comparable to Athlon's.
    Sep 30, 2014. 12:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Athlon Deal Highlights Exxon Permian Steal [View article]
    Lynden's acreage in the Wolfcamp is not contiguous and is not in easily drillable blocks. It is also "non op". And I'm not aware of record setting wells having been drilled on Lynden's land. These would imply meaningful discounts from Athlon's operated, blocky, high performing acreage.

    There was some value for the pdp and some value for the undeveloped acreage. Production multiples are used as a proxy for the pdp value. Perhaps I should have gone into more detail about this. It is a very commonly used valuation approach, particularly in talking about public company assets and acquisitions.
    Sep 30, 2014. 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment