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Josh Young

 
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  • The Next Great Investment Idea: AusTex Oil Is Trading At 1/3 Of Proved Reserve Value, Growing 300% Per Year [View article]
    Its an Australian listed company. It has Australian and Canadian market compliant reserves. Breaking out pud vs pdp is not as instructive for rapidly growing companies. I'd expect PDP % of reserves to be skyrocketing along with production as these wells are consistently coming online at high rates.

    Skeptical of listing in Canada? They added an additional market at almost no cost. I think they should have listed in the US but its expensive to go from IFRS to GAAP. They hopefully will eventually.

    I didn't want to hit everyone over the head with all of the info you are requesting. Please look at their website and at their corporate presentation, it is all there. Lots of production, reserves, cash flow, growth. It is real, it is growing, and it is super cheap...
    Jan 11, 2014. 06:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Great Investment Idea: AusTex Oil Is Trading At 1/3 Of Proved Reserve Value, Growing 300% Per Year [View article]
    The situation has changed significantly. Biggest differences are that way more wells have been drilled, there is way more production, and way more reserves. There is also much better corporate governance, and the reserves are now vetted by multiple parties.

    It was cheap then and is even cheaper now...
    Jan 11, 2014. 06:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Great Investment Idea: AusTex Oil Is Trading At 1/3 Of Proved Reserve Value, Growing 300% Per Year [View article]
    Great article, I commented on it and have previously discussed Sandridge's issues, and I actually said in an article a while back that Sandridge's royalty trust results indicated bad future well results and problems for the parent company. Austex is focused on a specific core vertical field in an area Sandridge doesn't have much exposure to. Apples and oranges. Thank you for the comment and the opportunity to make the distinction.
    Jan 11, 2014. 12:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Great Investment Idea: AusTex Oil Is Trading At 1/3 Of Proved Reserve Value, Growing 300% Per Year [View article]
    Thanks for the comment, you're totally right. I should have focused more on insider buying, it is an important aspect of the thesis. I really liked your analysis of Nova Copper and Xyratex. Perhaps you'll write a follow on article about Austex?
    Jan 10, 2014. 09:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy: Disappointing Asset Sale Reinforces Valuation Concerns [View article]
    I considered writing an article that would have said pretty much exactly what this one said, but probably wouldn't have included as much detailed analysis. Well done, and thanks for doing all this work on Sandridge and sharing it with us.
    Jan 10, 2014. 12:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Great Investment Idea: AusTex Oil Is Trading At 1/3 Of Proved Reserve Value, Growing 300% Per Year [View article]
    Thanks for the question. Not very common.

    I should have included in my article this little factoid- Austex raised some money recently and hired PWC to do a fairness opinion. PWC said the deal was "reasonable but not fair" because the stock is worth 50-100% more than it was trading for. This is extremely uncommon, as firms are hired to give fairness opinions on the understanding they will say the deal is fair! So PWC was incentivized to give a low estimate for Austex's value, and they still said it was worth at least 50-100% more than the deal price (deal was at ~$7 per shares)!!!
    Jan 10, 2014. 11:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Prices Surging, Driving Return Potential For This Leveraged Natural Gas Liquidation Play [View article]
    Thanks. To be clear, there is risk of loss here, but I am tentatively optimistic and the expected value looks a lot higher than the current price.
    Jan 8, 2014. 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taipan Resources: Applying The Pre-Drilling Multi-Bagging Hypothesis Indicates Huge Short Term Upside Potential [View article]
    Really interesting article. Are there other risks here / reasons why it might be trading at such a big discount to its risked NAV? For examply, HDY trades at a big discount but is being investigated for potential FCPA violations.
    Jan 6, 2014. 06:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • High Yield, High Risk: Royalty Trust Wealth Destruction And Opportunity Update [View article]
    I'd have to take a closer look at it. Didn't screen as particularly cheap / attractive.
    Jan 3, 2014. 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Yield, High Risk: Royalty Trust Wealth Destruction And Opportunity Update [View article]
    Thanks, I appreciate that!
    Jan 3, 2014. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Yield, High Risk: Royalty Trust Wealth Destruction And Opportunity Update [View article]
    SRF looks risky. Uses leverage and charges 1.25% management fee per year to invest in large, liquid stocks. Closed end funds can trade at large discounts to NAV, while this one trades at a small discount to NAV.
    Jan 2, 2014. 01:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Prices Surging, Driving Return Potential For This Leveraged Natural Gas Liquidation Play [View article]
    Good question - hopefully there is a bidding war going on right now. Longer delay might mean higher price.

    Good news for nat gas prices (and bad news if you live in the midwest or northeast) - http://bit.ly/1cipuLq
    Dec 30, 2013. 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cold Winter Could Lead To Massive Natural Gas Futures Price Spike [View article]
    I wrote an article that ties in to this... http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 23, 2013. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cold Winter Could Lead To Massive Natural Gas Futures Price Spike [View article]
    Interesting article
    Dec 23, 2013. 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Prices Surging, Driving Return Potential For This Leveraged Natural Gas Liquidation Play [View article]
    Is this a question or a suggestion?

    In this case the risk/reward was compelling, and the liquidation should happen in the near term.
    Dec 22, 2013. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
735 Comments
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