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Josh Young  

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  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    I hope so too. In the meantime, I am not saying the state government is necessarily in trouble, just that there will likely be an economic slowdown because of the huge drop in oil revenue and oilfield activity.
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    I have one of those bumper stickers, I was given it in 2009 from an investment research firm.
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    GDP isn't measured by government income tax receipts, it is a measure of economic activity. the barrels of oil produced and sold in the state contribute to GDP...
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    Alex, there are many ways to look at this. Could look at it versus 2008/2009 or other past downturns like the early 80's. Could compare it to other countries. Could do more guestimates. I may write more articles to analyze it from some of these other perspectives. But I think this was a good start.
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brad Thomas Positions For 2015: Attractive Opportunities Present Themselves In REITs [View article]
    Interesting interview
    Dec 23, 2014. 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Consistent Risk/Reward Speculation That I Have Ever Found [View article]
    Cost to borrow eats up most of these profits
    Dec 22, 2014. 12:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cheap Oil May Be Here To Stay [View article]
    Specifically, you should look at F&D + LOE. And you shouldn't just look at EOG's economics, EOG is only producing a small fraction of the oil in the US. You should look at the more marginal drillers as well, and if they aren't drilling and might go bankrupt, you should incorporate the absence of that production in forecast production levels.

    I think the result of this analysis is clear. The price of oil will be a lot higher in two years than it is today.
    Dec 22, 2014. 12:17 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cheap Oil May Be Here To Stay [View article]
    I think there is some confusion here about what half cycle economics mean. I think the actual marginal cost of production is a lot higher than what you're showing.
    Dec 21, 2014. 10:52 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan And The Good, The Bad And The Ugly Truth Regarding Falling Oil Prices [View article]
    In your article, which you referenced, you/the company said that every $1 change in the price of WTI would affect pre tax earnings by $7 million.

    $50 (change in oil price) x $7 million (change in pre tax earnings per $ change in oil price) = $350 million
    Dec 16, 2014. 04:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan And The Good, The Bad And The Ugly Truth Regarding Falling Oil Prices [View article]
    I'm not sure what you mean by that. I'm not short KMI, just wanted to get your input. Can you clarify what your view is on a) the likely $350 million drop in ebitda (from your article) and b) increased credit risk of KMI suppliers
    Dec 16, 2014. 04:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan And The Good, The Bad And The Ugly Truth Regarding Falling Oil Prices [View article]
    "every $1 change in the average WTI crude oil price per barrel will impact the CO2 segment by approximately $7 million pre tax"

    Oil is down ~$50 from its peak, so that should have an impact of ~$350 million. Thats roughly 5% of KMI's EBITDA. That is neither minute nor inconsequential.

    Also, no one is talking about all of the projects that won't get filled, nor are they talked about the negative credit impact this has had on the upstream companies that supply KMI with product. Lower credit suppliers implies higher required rates of return from projects (because of greater risk they default on their take or pay contracts with KMI).

    The midstream stocks have not been impacted too much so far, but if this oil downturn lasts for much longer, they will be.
    Dec 16, 2014. 04:20 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan And The Good, The Bad And The Ugly Truth Regarding Falling Oil Prices [View article]
    What about Kinder Morgan's CO2 / oil producing business? It would seem like that would be a relevant point to bring up, as falling oil prices will negative impact the cash flow generated from that business segment.
    Dec 16, 2014. 03:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC November Crude Production Numbers [View article]
    Interesting article, thanks for sharing
    Dec 10, 2014. 09:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ivy League Returns: Are They For The Rest Of Us? [View article]
    This looks like it would have been an even more interesting article if it weren't missing the charts
    Dec 9, 2014. 04:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying California Resources  [View instapost]
    Interesting article. I think if Oxy thought the Monterrey would be successful, they would have kept it.
    Dec 9, 2014. 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
884 Comments
631 Likes