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Josh Young

 
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  • Shale Math Coming Into Play Sooner Than Expected For Gastar Exploration [View article]
    I bought a portion of that offering, and like Ptolmey capital, I've been buying in the open market since then.

    Look into who Ptolmey capital is. I think your concern with corporate governance has been resolved going forward.
    Dec 6, 2013. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shale Math Coming Into Play Sooner Than Expected For Gastar Exploration [View article]
    Thanks. Still in it. Management in their last announcement basically said the next Hunton well will be really good too, and another massive result could further re-rate the stock.

    Take another look at AOK. Rapid production growth there...
    Dec 4, 2013. 10:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Recommendation Of Approach Resources Is Underperforming, Better Value Indeed Elsewhere [View article]
    GST has been a winner since the Barrons article, PXD has not.
    Dec 2, 2013. 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sonde's Spin-Off Opportunity [View article]
    I think they need to wait for shareholder approval. They should announce when they are planning to make the distribution and the record date for the distribution. Not sure how long that will take, could take a month or more.
    Nov 25, 2013. 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Colorado Regulatory Environment Turns Unfavorable, Could Negatively Impact Wattenberg Players [View article]
    I like how people create profiles on seekingalpha just to write nonsensical comments about particular companies that they own stock in. This seems to happen with stocks that are being aggressively promoted and with companies that are using their equity as currency - see the comments on my articles on Green Hunter and the deals SYRG has just done using equity to buy land.
    Nov 25, 2013. 01:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sonde's Spin-Off Opportunity [View article]
    Tsoukup,

    I agree, Sonde management has managed to disappoint in every way possible. I would not be surprised to see an activist get involved at this point.
    Nov 22, 2013. 03:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sonde's Spin-Off Opportunity [View article]
    I think it is obvious that Zarat is valuable. The question is who buys it / farms in, and what price they pay for it. I don't have a strong view on this, other than that it is likely worth more than the implied value net of Marquee spinoff shares.
    Nov 20, 2013. 09:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Synergy's Q3 Is Good, But Q4 Will Be Much Better [View article]
    Bankstocks, you have to incorporate the cost to borrow and availability of borrow in such an analysis. Also, I'll point out that if you grow as fast as SYRG is growing, your natural decline rate is extremely high, which means you need to replace lots of production just to keep production levels flat. If SYRG manages to grow to 7,000 boepd exit 2014, it will have to replace well over 3,500 boepd in 2015 before it is able to grow. Two steps forward, one step back. Which is part of the short thesis- sustaining triple digit growth is extremely difficult, particularly without blocked-up acreage (they are doing pads but the pads are not adjacent to each other, losing some synergies ironically).
    Nov 19, 2013. 12:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sonde's Spin-Off Opportunity [View article]
    There will be substantial synergies, using their current ffo number won't help that much.
    Nov 19, 2013. 04:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sonde's Spin-Off Opportunity [View article]
    Sonde has tons of cash relative to mkt cap. It is a very attractive takeout candidate at this point. It could fall but seems unlikely to trade below the value of cash + skwef shares.

    Marquee seems to be very confident in the 37-39 mm cf guidance for next year. Massive synergies from basically shutting down Sonde's operations and using Marquee's people for everything.

    It just seems so cheap to me (thus I bought additional shares recently), its trading as if Zarat has no value beyond potential cost reimbursement over a multi-year period, and as if the exploration portfolio in W Canada is worthless. Neither is true, and spinoffs have a funny way of frequently way outperforming the market.
    Nov 19, 2013. 04:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sonde's Spin-Off Opportunity [View article]
    Thank you.

    I wrote the article and submitted it prior the the Viking deal falling through. I did mention this as a risk in the article "One big risk is that the Zarat JV is not funded".

    Like I said in the article, "Management claims that if it is not funded, they would be able to find another partner on better terms (things are more stable now than they were in the midst of the Libyan civil war and Tunisian political unrest, so the political risk premium may have diminished). But there is no guarantee."

    Anyway, like I said in the article, spinoffs outperform the general market, and this is a particularly off the run spinoff that appears to be particularly undervalued relative to its assets. So we'll see.
    Nov 18, 2013. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wattenberg Transaction Read Through To Public Companies In The Area [View article]
    Bankstocks, that is a good point, but the valuation difference is pretty extreme. And SYRG seems to trade at a much higher valuation on 2014 numbers than BBG and BCEI.
    Nov 15, 2013. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Synergy's Q3 Is Good, But Q4 Will Be Much Better [View article]
    Lucas is ~100 feet from the closest EOG well - its leases are adjacent to EOG leases that EOG has already developed.

    SYRG is miles away from acreage Noble recently acquired and even further from horizontal wells that have actually been developed.

    And SYRG is nothing like GeoResources. I was a significant investor in GEOI's $12 equity offering...
    Nov 15, 2013. 12:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Synergy's Q3 Is Good, But Q4 Will Be Much Better [View article]
    Synergy paid $212 per acre in March 2013 for almost their whole Extension acreage position (17,000 net acres) - http://bit.ly/1gQpBW8

    Whiting has extended their acreage south but are still miles north of Synergy's acreage block. I'd suggest connecting with the other operators in the area to get a better understanding of the geological changes as you approach Synergy's acreage.

    You wrote an excellent article on SLCA / EOG, I'm sure you can do the work and figure this out.
    Nov 15, 2013. 02:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wattenberg Transaction Read Through To Public Companies In The Area [View article]
    Dmiller,

    It looks like they got a decent deal. Which I think highlights their valuation versus what assets are going for in the private market. BCEI and BBG trade for a lot closer to private market asset value than SYRG, based on the metrics discussed above.
    Nov 14, 2013. 09:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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