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Josh Young

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  • Peter Schiff's Euro Pacific Capital Thinks Lucas Energy Is Worth $3 Per Share [View article]
    Thank you for the question. I think one could have asked that about the performance of a number of stocks immediately before Mr. Musante initiated on them. BEXP was down over 90% in the previous year, and then traded up over 3600% over two years. Similar story for other stocks, albeit with less extreme returns. Small caps underperform for various reasons and outperform for various reasons.
    Oct 14 11:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Talisman Still A Buy At $14 Per Share Now That Carl Icahn Stepped In? [View article]
    Why would the disclosure mention Lucas? There is nothing in the article about Lucas.

    I still have my position in Lucas, actually working on an article about it right now. Did you see the recent initiation of coverage with a price target of $3 by Euro Pacific Capital?
    Oct 10 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GreenHunter - Ongoing Concerns... Failed Asset Sale, Negative Working Capital, No More Room On Shelf [View article]
    There is no plan. I simply write articles about positions I am holding that explain why I hold them. I don't have a strong view on NES; it does seem like they are troubled at the moment, but I've chosen to short GRH instead.
    Oct 8 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Acreage Transaction Parallels Sanchez Deal In The TMS [View article]
    Okoil, can you please state your name? It is a bit odd to have this conversation with an anonymous profile that appears to have been created specifically to comment on this article.

    I understand very well how "this" works. Gastar is using some of the same service firms other Hunton operators have used, and likely has had in depth conversations with all of the relevant firms to extract maximum available information. My point about the Marcellus is that Gastar has proven they can ramp up quickly and be an excellent operator in an unconventional shale play.

    Gastar made its type curve 7 wells because those are the wells Gastar participated in. They have said publicly that they expect somewhere in between 1 in 5 and 1 in 10 wells to be as productive as the Thrasher well, so it is appropriate for them to include one such well in a set of 7 wells for a type curve. Their 6th well appears to be tracking well over the type curve so far despite significant mechanical issues, so perhaps there are more future Thrasher-like wells than you're implying.

    I was asking for a link so everyone can see - if it is public this should be easy to show. It would be interesting to see exactly how that cost number is calculated. Gastar's net cost on its operated acreage is negative due to its sale to Newfield and Husky.

    The buyer, like I said, has bought in a number of areas at a relatively low cost. So while you might be able to point to one section in all of Kingfisher County where a few acres might have transacted at $575 per acre, these budget-oriented buyers bought 750 net acres across a 5,000+ gross acre block for $2,200 per acre, plus likely some amount of drilling carry...

    One other thing - Newfield paid almost $1,000 per acre for Gastar's Woodford acreage in Kingfisher that wasn't even prospective for the Hunton. This supports a higher value for acreage that is prospective for both.
    Oct 8 11:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Talisman Still A Buy At $14 Per Share Now That Carl Icahn Stepped In? [View article]
    I am. I basically said in the article I thought it might trade up but that fundamentally it isn't the most compelling investment for me.

    Interestingly, a number of the best sell side research firms came out with notes this morning that said similar things, which perhaps might be holding down the price.
    Oct 8 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Talisman Still A Buy At $14 Per Share Now That Carl Icahn Stepped In? [View article]
    It had traded to $14 per share after hours on October 7th
    Oct 8 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Acreage Transaction Parallels Sanchez Deal In The TMS [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. Can you provide any specific examples of such pooling orders? It is not very common for companies to pay $2,200 per acre for land they could buy for $700 per acre, and the acquiring company has done a pretty good job of achieving a low cost basis in other areas.

    Can you also provide evidence for the claim that they are relying on turnkey drilling contracts in Oklahoma? They certainly seem to be doing an excellent job in the Marcellus, and seem likely to be able to translate their expertise from drilling dozens of unconventional wells there to effectively drilling and completing wells in the Hunton.

    I think Gastar's incentive on its first few operated Hunton wells is to get as high an initial production rate as possible, even if that means a higher cost. Look at how Goodrich's stock has responded to 1,500 barrel per day production rates, despite well costs as high as $17 million! Everyone understands the 20th well will be cheaper than the 1st well, and the market is forgiving of that as long as there is economic resource available to exploit. And it appears that the Hunton play is working, across the dozens of successful wells that have been drilled so far by private operators.
    Oct 8 03:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forest Oil: Disappointing Asset Sale Raises Valuation Concerns [View article]
    Excellent article with very interesting analysis. Thanks for sharing.
    Oct 7 12:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Hunter Continues To Be Challenged [View article]
    Apc, thanks for the comment. I've shared my reasoning for why I shorted the stock. Can you share why you say you own it? It seems like Green Hunter is not in a very financially stable position.
    Sep 23 12:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pair Trade Idea: Long Oasis, Short Kodiak [View article]
    User, ironically OAS has WAY outperformed KOG since this article was published - http://yhoo.it/16lhk2h;range=20120626,201309...
    Sep 20 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shale Math Coming Into Play Sooner Than Expected For Gastar Exploration [View article]
    Gastar generates IRRs of 38-70+% on its development capex - http://bit.ly/XZE48d
    Sep 18 02:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shale Math Coming Into Play Sooner Than Expected For Gastar Exploration [View article]
    Valushka, thank you for the comment. Short answer - analysts have been raising their estimates for production and ebitda for Gastar for 2013 (and going forward). This is promising.

    Long answer:
    E&P valuations seem to be driven by a combination of net asset values, cash flows, and rates of return on invested capital. Ebitda is generally used by industry analysts rather than net income, as it better reflects the long-run value of an E&P business and its assets. Thus I watch for Ebitda rather than net income. And Gastar's production is rapidly ramping up, which combined with recent high oil prices is driving up analyst estimates of Ebitda...
    Sep 17 10:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shale Math Coming Into Play Sooner Than Expected For Gastar Exploration [View article]
    I have no opinion on the options. Currently only own the common stock, although I'm definitely kicking myself for not buying $5 december calls at 5 cents a few months ago...
    Sep 17 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shale Math Coming Into Play Sooner Than Expected For Gastar Exploration [View article]
    Slacker,

    Thank you for the comment and for following me / reading my articles. I have been very excited about the recent developments at Gastar, and I seem to be the only person writing about it and have been getting great feedback. The article before this one was about Niobrara focused companies and only mentioned Gastar because it was an interesting comparison, not the focus of the article - http://seekingalpha.co...

    The next article I'm writing is similar, focused on another investment of mine. I might mention Gastar in it too but Gastar will not be the focus of the article (at least, that is my current plan).
    Sep 17 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Prices Surging And Positive Developments Driving These 2 Oil Stocks Higher [View article]
    See my other articles on these stocks. Both trade at large discounts to NAV and to the valuations of neighboring companies.
    Sep 15 10:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
656 Comments
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