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Josh Young  

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  • Oil Markets: Sentiment And Lame Thinking Are Currently In The Driver's Seat [View article]
    Great article. I like that you incorporated the drilling permit drop, seen here: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 4, 2014. 02:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil And Gas: USA 1, OPEC 0 [View article]
    Great article. We're already seeing oil drilling permits down 40-50% in one month! http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 3, 2014. 11:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New U.S. oil and gas well permits plunge 40% in November [View news story]
    I wrote about this yesterday. Seeking Alpha should do a better job of linking its "breaking news" articles to actual articles written by contributors previously. http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 3, 2014. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Special Situation: New IPO Crashes 90% Out Of The Gate On Unexpected Dump [View article]
    Can you tell us more about the "0 cost" shares given to "consultants"? what service did the consultants provide? Who are they?
    Oct 21, 2014. 05:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MLPs Overpaying For Assets? Atlas May Have Overpaid Versus Cabot In Recent Eagle Ford Transactions [View article]
    "In connection with the acquisition, Atlas Energy, L.P.'s (ATLS) E&P development subsidiary will purchase eight wells that have been drilled but not completed and 53 undeveloped drilling locations for approximately $115 million, which is to be paid in the twelve months following closing."

    They left out the important detail that Atlas Growth is buying it from ARP (can someone provide written evidence of this?). The simplest understanding of the press release was the basis of my article. It is bizarre that they didn't clarify the related party transaction.
    Oct 16, 2014. 12:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rising Marginal Cost Of Oil Production Highlighted By Kashagan Expense Escalation [View article]
    I would argue that the current operators are among the best in the world, and that their project management issues are driven by the mindbogglingly complex nature of the project. The easy to measure costs are supplies and labor, the harder to measure costs are the indirect ones associated with increasingly complex projects. Both are escalating.
    Oct 14, 2014. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Athlon Deal Highlights Exxon Permian Steal [View article]
    Robert, thanks for the comment and the eloquent explanation. Much appreciated. If its ok with you, I may quote and cite some of it in a future article.
    Sep 30, 2014. 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Athlon Deal Highlights Exxon Permian Steal [View article]
    Did you see Devon's JV partner just took a $1.6 billion writedown for their Wolfcamp / Cline JV? I wouldn't hold my breath on Mitchell Ranch.

    We'll see on the rest, but I haven't seen BBEP buy anything in the area in a while, and LINE just sold down their interests in the area. And even at its "most blocky" it is still a scattered acreage position, which is not comparable to Athlon's.
    Sep 30, 2014. 12:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Athlon Deal Highlights Exxon Permian Steal [View article]
    Lynden's acreage in the Wolfcamp is not contiguous and is not in easily drillable blocks. It is also "non op". And I'm not aware of record setting wells having been drilled on Lynden's land. These would imply meaningful discounts from Athlon's operated, blocky, high performing acreage.

    There was some value for the pdp and some value for the undeveloped acreage. Production multiples are used as a proxy for the pdp value. Perhaps I should have gone into more detail about this. It is a very commonly used valuation approach, particularly in talking about public company assets and acquisitions.
    Sep 30, 2014. 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Athlon Deal Highlights Exxon Permian Steal [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. The reason analysts value both production and acreage is that in acquisitions, both are valued. This analytic approach is used by acquisitions experts and by sell side research analysts in evaluating deals.
    Sep 29, 2014. 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Athlon Deal Highlights Exxon Permian Steal [View article]
    RLP, if Encana didn't get 140,000 mostly undeveloped net Wolfcamp acres, that would be right. However, because Encana bought both undeveloped land and production, it is more accurate to evaluate the production value and the acreage value separately, which is what I did in the article.
    Sep 29, 2014. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Athlon Deal Highlights Exxon Permian Steal [View article]
    Thats right, but there is some value for acreage and some value for production. So its not $7.1 billion divided by each, its closer to $2 billion divided by 30,000 barrels per day and $5.1 billion divided by 140,000 acres.
    Sep 29, 2014. 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy Overpaid For Exxon's California Production [View article]
    Thanks for the comment
    Sep 24, 2014. 10:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy Overpaid For Exxon's California Production [View article]
    Comps from the past 18 months, not 18 months old. Given the very limited information provided by the company regarding this transaction, comps are a good reference point. Particularly because so many other transactions have been in line with the other comparable transactions.

    Re: my clients,
    a) I don't use seekingalpha to make buy or sell recommendations
    b) incidentally I don't own, nor recommend, nor am I short (nor do I recommend shorting) LINE at the moment. I reserve the right to change that at any point without further notice.
    Sep 24, 2014. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy Overpaid For Exxon's California Production [View article]
    Linn's engineers certainly have more information about the assets they are buying and selling than I do. However, management did not share some of the information they could have to help the public better assess a transaction. The information they chose to share does not make a great case for the transaction.
    Sep 24, 2014. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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