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Josh Young

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  • Will Lucas Energy's Gonzales County Acreage Be Developed? [View article]
    "Again, I'm not here just to bash the stock, even though it may seem like it." - I don't understand what you're doing other than that. "I come to bury Caesar, not to praise him"...
    Jul 25 09:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Important But Unpublished News For These Oil And Gas Companies [View article]
    This is ancient history. Read the past 6 10-ks for more detail, but its not at all relevant to Gastar now.
    Jul 25 09:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Important But Unpublished News For These Oil And Gas Companies [View article]
    I believe there is no more exposure to Gastar - the last exposure I think was settled for $20 million, which Gastar is suing to recover (along with legal fees) from its insurers.
    Jul 25 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Lucas Energy's Gonzales County Acreage Be Developed? [View article]
    Um, they disclosed it. You make it sound like it was surreptitious - they have a shelf in place and a filing with the SEC came out shortly after it happened. Press releases cost just under $1000 to put out, plus lawyer time to get them approved, executive time to write them, etc. For a $250k investment, just not economic.

    But you're right. Maybe it would have been worth the money. A press release might have gone along the lines of "the largest holder and chairman of our company just bought another 0.6% interest in our company, purchasing shares directly from the company at the market price. we are thrilled to see the chairman further aligning his interests with the company, illustrating his commitment to the company and his view that shares of the company may be materially undervalued"

    Of course, you might have criticized that as promotional. Instead they went the low key path of just putting up the appropriate filings, not spending the money on legal fees and press releases, and continued about their business. Which you are now criticizing. When your cup is half empty, you can't win.
    Jul 25 03:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Lucas Energy's Gonzales County Acreage Be Developed? [View article]
    I was just about to write one talking about how Meson buying that stock is positive, and explaining why insider buys are material and good indicators.
    Jul 25 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Lucas Energy's Gonzales County Acreage Be Developed? [View article]
    UHC, I actually think the $250k is meaningful. It tells you that Ryan, the chairman of the board of Lucas, thinks that he's going to make money buying the stock around its current price. $250k is small for Lucas but large for Meson (based on SEC filings disclosing holdings). I love it when the management and the board of a company buys stock, and I don't have a strong preference for them to buy it in the open market versus buying it directly from the company.
    Jul 25 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Important But Unpublished News For These Oil And Gas Companies [View article]
    Johnny, thanks for the comment/questions.
    1) I have no insight into when the money might be collected. It could be years from now. But it is certainly good to know there is a reasonably good chance a $200 million mkt cap company will be reimbursed ~$25 million at some point.
    2) No insight. Heard rumors that they're funded and other rumors that they aren't. We'll see in the next couple weeks. I don't think Gastar would have given them the extensions that they gave them unless they thought the deal would close, so I think its reasonably likely but its hard to assign a probability.

    Regarding E Texas, don't forget that there are MASSIVE unbooked gas reserves there that become economic at $5 natural gas. It is a huge call option on higher gas prices in the future. That is partly why someone would pay so much for it relative to the current proved reserve value at $3.70 natural gas. With oil over $100, a 10-1 ratio implies $10 gas; 20-1 implies $5 gas and there have only been a few years in history with a greater than 20-1 ratio, and there are powerful mean reverting factors. So it is not exactly a one-sided deal. But it would still be good for Gastar to have the cash, as they can re-invest it at high rates of return.
    Jul 25 01:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Lucas Energy's Gonzales County Acreage Be Developed? [View article]
    I (obviously) disagree with this analysis. I think the answer to the rhetorical question is yes. And unlike the author, I am betting on it.

    I think this analysis is logically flawed. It is not mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive - (http://bit.ly/13fYfhj) - yes, I started my career as a management consultant. It addresses the monster EOG well 6.5 miles away but does not address the numerous EOG wells 100-1000 feet away. It does not consider other possibilities of why MRO is not developing the acreage. And it ignores the huge productivity improvements in Eagle Ford wells in Gonzales county in the past 3 years.
    Jul 25 12:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Important But Unpublished News For These Oil And Gas Companies [View article]
    I participated in multiple equity offerings with Lucas prior to getting appointed to the board and between those offerings which had warrants attached and the (~8 thousand) warrants I was granted for sitting on the board, there are a variety of strike prices and expiration dates. Its all public and would be time consuming to look them up and post them here. Almost all are way out of the money.

    I'm not sure what your points are regarding Gastar or Gale Force. Gale Force is trading around where it was when I first wrote about it a little over a year ago, despite having operational issues which surprised both the management team and other investors, including myself. And Gastar has done exceptionally well since I started writing about it extensively a few months ago, both as a stock and as an underlying business.

    Making unsubstantiated comments like "I wonder when it will tank" is almost as bad as making outright false comments like "there's no money or cash flow". Consensus EBITDA estimates for Gastar for 2013 are around $70 million (and rising) and Gastar has well over $50 million in cash at the moment with nothing drawn on its bank line. You may be waiting for it to "tank" for a long time, and in the meantime the stock price has almost doubled, cash on hand has risen by tens of millions of dollars, a successful bond offering has financed capex for 2013 and into 2014, etc.
    Jul 24 06:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Important But Unpublished News For These Oil And Gas Companies [View article]
    You're welcome. I've written a number of articles about Gastar as its situation has evolved over the past 6 months. It has done quite well, and its CEO keeps pulling rabbits out of his hat. Tony (the CEO of Lucas) has pulled rabbits out of his hat in his career, both at Lucas so far (getting the company to cash flow positive earlier than expected) and at previous companies. I am optimistic that between the asset base and management, Lucas stock could do quite well too.
    Jul 23 10:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • For Sale: Sonde Resources [View article]
    We'll see. I was obviously way off on this one. Hoping for the best but who knows.
    Jul 23 10:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Important But Unpublished News For These Oil And Gas Companies [View article]
    Duly noted. I will try to remember to include a more thorough disclosure regarding my past relationship with Lucas in articles mentioning the company.

    The warrants you refer to were associated with my appointment to the Board of Directors at Lucas in October 2012. The number of warrants I personally hold in Lucas was reduced upon my resignation from the board, from 50,000 to ~8,000 (there was a vesting issue or something along those lines). I don't recall the strike price but I think they are approximately at the money at the moment.
    Jul 23 08:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Important But Unpublished News For These Oil And Gas Companies [View article]
    I believe I have no material, non-public information about Lucas at this point. I of course have relationships with various people involved but have not had discussions with them about the company since the 10-k came out. I have recently traded emails with the CEO to validate an estimate of the distance of the huge EOG well from Lucas's leases (turns out it is ~6.5 miles from Lucas's Gonzales acreage).
    Jul 23 08:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Important But Unpublished News For These Oil And Gas Companies [View article]
    I see other companies do deals like this all the time. It is a tiny number of shares and a small amount of money. The material aspect of it (in my opinion, since you asked) is that an entity controlled by the chairman of the board bought stock.

    I wish that every company I invested in sold stock directly to the chairman of the board at the then-market price of the stock. This kind of deal is very shareholder friendly, as it furthers the alignment of the chairman with the company in a fair, at-the-market transaction.
    Jul 23 08:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Important But Unpublished News For These Oil And Gas Companies [View article]
    Black Gold, your claim that "certainly you know something" is not that different from Jeb's career advice for me in an earlier comment. I do in fact not know any more facts about this purchase than any other public investor - I only learned about it by seeing the filings on the edgar.com website.

    You are welcome to speculate, as you did in your comment, as to why Meson bought the position directly and why the company sold it to Meson directly. As I discussed in the second article I wrote about Lucas, I don't think there is a balance sheet issue, so I don't think it was to meet some kind of short term capital need. But I do not know exactly, and since it is, as you say, a small investment for Lucas, I'm not sure there is much to infer from the particular method of the acquisition. But I do think that it is meaningful that Meson bought the stock, which is why I mentioned it.

    I was surprised to be included in the 13-g filing and had no notice of it prior to the filing going out.
    Jul 23 05:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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