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Josh Young

 
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  • Sonde's Spin-Off Opportunity [View article]
    Tsoukup,

    I agree, Sonde management has managed to disappoint in every way possible. I would not be surprised to see an activist get involved at this point.
    Nov 22, 2013. 03:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sonde's Spin-Off Opportunity [View article]
    I think it is obvious that Zarat is valuable. The question is who buys it / farms in, and what price they pay for it. I don't have a strong view on this, other than that it is likely worth more than the implied value net of Marquee spinoff shares.
    Nov 20, 2013. 09:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Synergy's Q3 Is Good, But Q4 Will Be Much Better [View article]
    Bankstocks, you have to incorporate the cost to borrow and availability of borrow in such an analysis. Also, I'll point out that if you grow as fast as SYRG is growing, your natural decline rate is extremely high, which means you need to replace lots of production just to keep production levels flat. If SYRG manages to grow to 7,000 boepd exit 2014, it will have to replace well over 3,500 boepd in 2015 before it is able to grow. Two steps forward, one step back. Which is part of the short thesis- sustaining triple digit growth is extremely difficult, particularly without blocked-up acreage (they are doing pads but the pads are not adjacent to each other, losing some synergies ironically).
    Nov 19, 2013. 12:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sonde's Spin-Off Opportunity [View article]
    There will be substantial synergies, using their current ffo number won't help that much.
    Nov 19, 2013. 04:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sonde's Spin-Off Opportunity [View article]
    Sonde has tons of cash relative to mkt cap. It is a very attractive takeout candidate at this point. It could fall but seems unlikely to trade below the value of cash + skwef shares.

    Marquee seems to be very confident in the 37-39 mm cf guidance for next year. Massive synergies from basically shutting down Sonde's operations and using Marquee's people for everything.

    It just seems so cheap to me (thus I bought additional shares recently), its trading as if Zarat has no value beyond potential cost reimbursement over a multi-year period, and as if the exploration portfolio in W Canada is worthless. Neither is true, and spinoffs have a funny way of frequently way outperforming the market.
    Nov 19, 2013. 04:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sonde's Spin-Off Opportunity [View article]
    Thank you.

    I wrote the article and submitted it prior the the Viking deal falling through. I did mention this as a risk in the article "One big risk is that the Zarat JV is not funded".

    Like I said in the article, "Management claims that if it is not funded, they would be able to find another partner on better terms (things are more stable now than they were in the midst of the Libyan civil war and Tunisian political unrest, so the political risk premium may have diminished). But there is no guarantee."

    Anyway, like I said in the article, spinoffs outperform the general market, and this is a particularly off the run spinoff that appears to be particularly undervalued relative to its assets. So we'll see.
    Nov 18, 2013. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wattenberg Transaction Read Through To Public Companies In The Area [View article]
    Bankstocks, that is a good point, but the valuation difference is pretty extreme. And SYRG seems to trade at a much higher valuation on 2014 numbers than BBG and BCEI.
    Nov 15, 2013. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Synergy's Q3 Is Good, But Q4 Will Be Much Better [View article]
    Lucas is ~100 feet from the closest EOG well - its leases are adjacent to EOG leases that EOG has already developed.

    SYRG is miles away from acreage Noble recently acquired and even further from horizontal wells that have actually been developed.

    And SYRG is nothing like GeoResources. I was a significant investor in GEOI's $12 equity offering...
    Nov 15, 2013. 12:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Synergy's Q3 Is Good, But Q4 Will Be Much Better [View article]
    Synergy paid $212 per acre in March 2013 for almost their whole Extension acreage position (17,000 net acres) - http://bit.ly/1gQpBW8

    Whiting has extended their acreage south but are still miles north of Synergy's acreage block. I'd suggest connecting with the other operators in the area to get a better understanding of the geological changes as you approach Synergy's acreage.

    You wrote an excellent article on SLCA / EOG, I'm sure you can do the work and figure this out.
    Nov 15, 2013. 02:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wattenberg Transaction Read Through To Public Companies In The Area [View article]
    Dmiller,

    It looks like they got a decent deal. Which I think highlights their valuation versus what assets are going for in the private market. BCEI and BBG trade for a lot closer to private market asset value than SYRG, based on the metrics discussed above.
    Nov 14, 2013. 09:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Synergy's Q3 Is Good, But Q4 Will Be Much Better [View article]
    Far enough for acreage to sell for a few hundred dollars per acre rather than thousands of dollars per acre. Order of magnitude difference in price...
    Nov 14, 2013. 04:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meramec Shale Oil Play Unveiled By Newfield Exploration [View article]
    Got it, thanks. Its on a sub row which is probably how I missed it. 800-1,000 mboe is not bad at all...
    Nov 13, 2013. 08:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Would You Fund This Company? Capital Destruction At Green Hunter Resources [View article]
    Can you say why you "believe" this. My view is purely driven by data - the data says (in my understanding of it) that Green Hunter has accumulated ~$150 million in losses so far, and that it needs to raise money just to stay in business.
    Nov 13, 2013. 07:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Synergy's Q3 Is Good, But Q4 Will Be Much Better [View article]
    It makes a huge difference in the private asset market. Acreage sells for way more in Noble or BCEI's core area than in the area SYRG picked up acreage. There's a reason there aren't others bidding for it.

    Speaking of private market, here's something I put together on the transaction announced today. http://seekingalpha.co...

    Private market is saying SYRG is currently not worth a whole lot, and even if it grows to Bill's estimates it maybe might be worth ~65% of what its trading for towards the end of next year.
    Nov 13, 2013. 06:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Would You Fund This Company? Capital Destruction At Green Hunter Resources [View article]
    In that case, look at NES - just being in the oil services business doesn't guarantee success, and these particular niches seem to be challenging for whatever reasons.
    Nov 13, 2013. 02:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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