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  • La Quinta Texas Room Rates Drop 25%, Management Evades Question About Regional Exposure [View article]
    1) at $58, it is unlikely they are making money
    2) it is in the data but is a much longer conversation
    3) Blackstone is the controlling shareholder and just filed that it is selling another 15-20% of La Quinta
    4) what? 2009 was the last downturn. the low 4 star hotel rates then are indicative. I recall 2.5 star hotels going for <$30 per night.
    5) Short interest ticked up materially in the past few months. There are 3 million more shares short now than on December 31st, over $60 million. I'll politely suggest that large additions to short positions are more material than anonymous internet troll comments.
    Mar 17, 2015. 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • La Quinta Texas Room Rates Drop 25%, Management Evades Question About Regional Exposure [View article]
    Why would you want to own a stock going into further massive insider selling? Blackstone is a great investment firm. I'd rather go the direction they're going than the other way. They're selling, I'm shorting, and you're... buying?
    Mar 13, 2015. 03:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • La Quinta Texas Room Rates Drop 25%, Management Evades Question About Regional Exposure [View article]
    Shaw, the numbers you're referring to are backwards looking, and in many cases are reflective of an environment prior to the dropping of hundreds of rigs and increased economic malaise in Texas and other key LQ markets.

    Look forwards. Do you really think that over-built markets such as Houston are going to hold up? I stayed at 4 star hotels in Houston in 2009 for ~$50 per night. And my understanding is that things were even worse in the crash of 1986.
    Mar 13, 2015. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • La Quinta Texas Room Rates Drop 25%, Management Evades Question About Regional Exposure [View article]
    Midland pricing and utilization has led pricing and utilization across Texas. We're watching the unwinding of growth in Texas, which is being felt in lodging, among other sectors.
    Mar 13, 2015. 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • La Quinta Texas Room Rates Drop 25%, Management Evades Question About Regional Exposure [View article]
    Raj,

    The metrics you're mentioning are rearview mirror oriented. La Quinta grew through, among other things, following economic growth and oil field activity. That growth, in states like Texas, is faltering. And that activity has fallen off. Going forward, metrics may look much worse.
    Mar 13, 2015. 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • La Quinta Texas Room Rates Drop 25%, Management Evades Question About Regional Exposure [View article]
    You took that quote out of context. He's talking about the 3% of systemwide revenue that oil & gas CORPORATE ACCOUNTS account for. He's not addressing the 26% of revenue that Texas accounts for, or the almost 50% of revenue that Texas + other large oil producing states account for.
    Mar 13, 2015. 03:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley Sees Oil Exposure Risk, Lowers La Quinta's Price Target [View article]
    And incidentally, La Quinta's posted rates for Midland area hotels are down. The La Quinta "Inn and Suites" property room rate is down to $218 posted rate (available via Kayak.com) from $290 posted rate in January. And the La Quinta "Inn" room rate is down to $130 from $175 in January. (prices cited in this article: http://seekingalpha.co...)

    Midland will feel an exaggerated effect, but with more than 1/4 of its revenue from Texas and almost 50% from oil producing states, forward looking prospects may be much more negative than the backward looking data that you are citing. Note management's failure to respond to this question...
    Mar 12, 2015. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley Sees Oil Exposure Risk, Lowers La Quinta's Price Target [View article]
    The hotwire numbers are not at all misleading - I was curious, so I pulled up priceline and hotwire for a room in Midland today. I see a 2.5 star hotel on Priceline's "express deal" in Midland for $58, and a 3 star hotel in Odessa for $58.

    Do you really think that a "rising lodging cycle" will continue in the midst of a regional downturn? LQ management is obviously concerned, so much so that they dodged that question on their recent conference call.
    Mar 12, 2015. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley Sees Oil Exposure Risk, Lowers La Quinta's Price Target [View article]
    Shawspring,

    Perhaps. It depends on who is traveling and why they're traveling. And it depends on how much capacity was built for each. Supply and demand. In the '86 downturn in Texas, "select service" hotels did worse. In '08, luxury did worse. With the number of low level oil company employees being laid off as the rig count continues to plummet, perhaps this downturn in Texas will be more like '86.

    Note how deeply discounted 2* and 2.5* hotels across Texas are on Hotwire. Numbers will likely continue to deteriorate for select service lodging providers in Texas going forward.
    Mar 9, 2015. 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley Sees Oil Exposure Risk, Lowers La Quinta's Price Target [View article]
    Carl, that sounds pretty anecdotal. La Quinta has hundreds of locations in Texas. As the local economy spirals downward amidst waves of layoffs, local lodging providers will suffer. Perhaps the "more popular" ones will suffer even more.
    Mar 9, 2015. 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy: What Happens Once The Cash Pile Runs Out? [View article]
    Great article
    Mar 4, 2015. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • La Quinta Currently At Fair Value But Still A Long-Term Growth Story [View article]
    Mordant, you seemed to have missed the point at which Dallas said that he sold LQ. And Shawspring is now "less concerned" about oil exposure, despite having previous said he was not concerned about it.

    It sounds like you might not understand the mechanics of shorting stock. You "sell" a stock short and "buy" to cover a short position.

    When you disclose your name and relationship with the company (it is curious that you've continued to comment almost exclusively on La Quinta here on Seeking Alpha), I'll share if I've shorted more recently.
    Mar 4, 2015. 03:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • La Quinta Currently At Fair Value But Still A Long-Term Growth Story [View article]
    Both management and now you have constructed a straw man "bear" thesis. The issue isn't oil and gas corporate accounts. Its over exposure to oil states like Texas, Oklahoma, North Dakota, etc. Few people stay at La Quinta on a corporate account - it is "select service" - essentially a motel.

    But when GDP in Texas falls (not just in Midland, but across Texas), room rates and occupancy will fall (again not just in Midland, but across Texas). Midland is just the most egregious example.

    With 50% of revenue exposed to these states, we'll see how these revpar numbers look later in 2015. The rig count is down ~40%, most of which is in the past 6 weeks.

    Blackstone sold. Management sold. You sold. Blackstone will sell more. Lets see where this settles out.

    The short thesis came out at a stock price around the current price, so showing a stock chart from an IPO that priced below expectations doesn't show much, other than that your recommendation to buy the stock at that time has turned out to be correct.
    Mar 3, 2015. 12:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell? Insiders Dump La Quinta Stock [View article]
    Hi, thanks for the comment / question.

    No, they did not answer the specific question asked by an analyst in this regard. The rig count only collapsed in the last 2 months, so there has been a lag in economic impact on oil producing states. But the collapse has been dramatic, it hasn't stopped yet, and economically sensitive service providers such has lodging businesses will feel it.
    Feb 27, 2015. 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When To Buy Energy Financings - And When Not To [View article]
    Interesting article. Thanks for sharing your perspective on Canadian capital markets for oil and gas companies.
    Feb 26, 2015. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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