Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Josh Young  

View Josh Young's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Morgan Stanley Sees Oil Exposure Risk, Lowers La Quinta's Price Target [View article]
    The hotwire numbers are not at all misleading - I was curious, so I pulled up priceline and hotwire for a room in Midland today. I see a 2.5 star hotel on Priceline's "express deal" in Midland for $58, and a 3 star hotel in Odessa for $58.

    Do you really think that a "rising lodging cycle" will continue in the midst of a regional downturn? LQ management is obviously concerned, so much so that they dodged that question on their recent conference call.
    Mar 12, 2015. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley Sees Oil Exposure Risk, Lowers La Quinta's Price Target [View article]

    Perhaps. It depends on who is traveling and why they're traveling. And it depends on how much capacity was built for each. Supply and demand. In the '86 downturn in Texas, "select service" hotels did worse. In '08, luxury did worse. With the number of low level oil company employees being laid off as the rig count continues to plummet, perhaps this downturn in Texas will be more like '86.

    Note how deeply discounted 2* and 2.5* hotels across Texas are on Hotwire. Numbers will likely continue to deteriorate for select service lodging providers in Texas going forward.
    Mar 9, 2015. 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley Sees Oil Exposure Risk, Lowers La Quinta's Price Target [View article]
    Carl, that sounds pretty anecdotal. La Quinta has hundreds of locations in Texas. As the local economy spirals downward amidst waves of layoffs, local lodging providers will suffer. Perhaps the "more popular" ones will suffer even more.
    Mar 9, 2015. 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy: What Happens Once The Cash Pile Runs Out? [View article]
    Great article
    Mar 4, 2015. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • La Quinta Currently At Fair Value But Still A Long-Term Growth Story [View article]
    Mordant, you seemed to have missed the point at which Dallas said that he sold LQ. And Shawspring is now "less concerned" about oil exposure, despite having previous said he was not concerned about it.

    It sounds like you might not understand the mechanics of shorting stock. You "sell" a stock short and "buy" to cover a short position.

    When you disclose your name and relationship with the company (it is curious that you've continued to comment almost exclusively on La Quinta here on Seeking Alpha), I'll share if I've shorted more recently.
    Mar 4, 2015. 03:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • La Quinta Currently At Fair Value But Still A Long-Term Growth Story [View article]
    Both management and now you have constructed a straw man "bear" thesis. The issue isn't oil and gas corporate accounts. Its over exposure to oil states like Texas, Oklahoma, North Dakota, etc. Few people stay at La Quinta on a corporate account - it is "select service" - essentially a motel.

    But when GDP in Texas falls (not just in Midland, but across Texas), room rates and occupancy will fall (again not just in Midland, but across Texas). Midland is just the most egregious example.

    With 50% of revenue exposed to these states, we'll see how these revpar numbers look later in 2015. The rig count is down ~40%, most of which is in the past 6 weeks.

    Blackstone sold. Management sold. You sold. Blackstone will sell more. Lets see where this settles out.

    The short thesis came out at a stock price around the current price, so showing a stock chart from an IPO that priced below expectations doesn't show much, other than that your recommendation to buy the stock at that time has turned out to be correct.
    Mar 3, 2015. 12:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell? Insiders Dump La Quinta Stock [View article]
    Hi, thanks for the comment / question.

    No, they did not answer the specific question asked by an analyst in this regard. The rig count only collapsed in the last 2 months, so there has been a lag in economic impact on oil producing states. But the collapse has been dramatic, it hasn't stopped yet, and economically sensitive service providers such has lodging businesses will feel it.
    Feb 27, 2015. 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When To Buy Energy Financings - And When Not To [View article]
    Interesting article. Thanks for sharing your perspective on Canadian capital markets for oil and gas companies.
    Feb 26, 2015. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy: Panic Selling Is A Promising Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Interesting approach
    Feb 25, 2015. 05:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profit From The Oil Price Crash And Follow Blackstone: Short La Quinta Holdings [View article]
    There were numerous contradictory statements on the call. They don't actually have numbers for why visitors are staying at a particular hotel, which they said, but then they also said that oil and gas represents a smaller industry representation than other industries for them. With 30% of their hotels in Texas and another ~20% in oil states like North Dakota, that is a bold statement for them to make considering their admission that they don't really know their customers.

    They also seem to think that most of Texas will be immune from this oil price decline. JP Morgan disagrees, citing risk of a broader statewide downturn in 2015. The impact of this may be amplified by the increase in hotel rooms across the state, meaning there could be both more supply and less demand. This may also play out in other oil exposed states like North Dakota.

    I also struggle with the math of a slowdown in places like Midland not impacting margins. Room rates of $290 per night are way higher than the sub $100 average across the chain. Obviously margins at that hotel (considering the same size rooms, etc) were likely higher than average, as will other higher than average room rate hotels in other oil areas like Odessa. Already rooms are available in that area on hotwire for $100 per night for the same star level, indicating substantial excess inventory and perhaps signalling a likely posted rate price drop.

    Also, what utility rates are going down due to a drop in oil prices? Really? Oil is not a factor in electricity rates, and if anything my understanding is that electric rates across the country are going up, not down!
    Feb 25, 2015. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: La Quinta Insider Selling In Size Opens The Door For Questions And Concerns [View article]
    Not just Texas, also Colorado, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Louisiana, etc. Across those states, you're talking almost 50% of hotels and revenue base. Could be a material slowdown this year, especially now that 400+ rigs have been dropped already in 2015!

    If it was at an "attractive multiple" Blackstone wouldn't be selling here. Also, La Quinta motels are not of comparable quality to Hilton, Hyatt, etc. Inappropriate to award a similar multiple to a lower revpar, margin, etc business
    Feb 20, 2015. 01:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon: Please Lord, Don't Buy BP [View article]
    In an interesting turn of events, Berkshire Hathaway / Warren Buffett just sold all their shares of Exxon Mobil
    Feb 17, 2015. 06:34 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: La Quinta Insider Selling In Size Opens The Door For Questions And Concerns [View article]
    You may have 65 stocks in your portfolio, but you've only ever commented on one.

    Downstream capex is smaller and in areas better served by competitors to LQ than upstream heavy areas like Midland.
    Feb 16, 2015. 10:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Kid On The Block Is Generating Controversy [View article]
    Interesting article. Pricey stock considering the large amount of debt and equity it will need to issue to develop its assets
    Feb 12, 2015. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bellatrix Exploration Trading At 23% Of Its Fairly Valued Price [View article]
    PE and share price are not meaningful metrics for evaluating upstream energy companies. Analysts generally use EV/EBTIDA, if they are are using a multiple, as EV better captures the total capital structure and EBITDA avoids earnings distortions from depreciation, hedging, etc.

    In terms of using numerical stock price - share price is nearly meaningless without factoring in number of shares and calculating a market cap. Sure if it were a 2 cent stock, that would tell you something, but a $2 stock versus a $5 stock tells you nothing while comparing market caps or enterprise values tells you a lot more.
    Feb 11, 2015. 09:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment