Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Josh Young  

View Josh Young's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Chesapeake Energy: Panic Selling Is A Promising Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Interesting approach
    Feb 25, 2015. 05:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profit From The Oil Price Crash And Follow Blackstone: Short La Quinta Holdings [View article]
    There were numerous contradictory statements on the call. They don't actually have numbers for why visitors are staying at a particular hotel, which they said, but then they also said that oil and gas represents a smaller industry representation than other industries for them. With 30% of their hotels in Texas and another ~20% in oil states like North Dakota, that is a bold statement for them to make considering their admission that they don't really know their customers.

    They also seem to think that most of Texas will be immune from this oil price decline. JP Morgan disagrees http://seekingalpha.co..., citing risk of a broader statewide downturn in 2015. The impact of this may be amplified by the increase in hotel rooms across the state, meaning there could be both more supply and less demand. This may also play out in other oil exposed states like North Dakota.

    I also struggle with the math of a slowdown in places like Midland not impacting margins. Room rates of $290 per night are way higher than the sub $100 average across the chain. Obviously margins at that hotel (considering the same size rooms, etc) were likely higher than average, as will other higher than average room rate hotels in other oil areas like Odessa. Already rooms are available in that area on hotwire for $100 per night for the same star level, indicating substantial excess inventory and perhaps signalling a likely posted rate price drop.

    Also, what utility rates are going down due to a drop in oil prices? Really? Oil is not a factor in electricity rates, and if anything my understanding is that electric rates across the country are going up, not down!
    Feb 25, 2015. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: La Quinta Insider Selling In Size Opens The Door For Questions And Concerns [View article]
    Not just Texas, also Colorado, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Louisiana, etc. Across those states, you're talking almost 50% of hotels and revenue base. Could be a material slowdown this year, especially now that 400+ rigs have been dropped already in 2015!

    If it was at an "attractive multiple" Blackstone wouldn't be selling here. Also, La Quinta motels are not of comparable quality to Hilton, Hyatt, etc. Inappropriate to award a similar multiple to a lower revpar, margin, etc business
    Feb 20, 2015. 01:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon: Please Lord, Don't Buy BP [View article]
    In an interesting turn of events, Berkshire Hathaway / Warren Buffett just sold all their shares of Exxon Mobil
    Feb 17, 2015. 06:34 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: La Quinta Insider Selling In Size Opens The Door For Questions And Concerns [View article]
    You may have 65 stocks in your portfolio, but you've only ever commented on one.

    Downstream capex is smaller and in areas better served by competitors to LQ than upstream heavy areas like Midland.
    Feb 16, 2015. 10:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Kid On The Block Is Generating Controversy [View article]
    Interesting article. Pricey stock considering the large amount of debt and equity it will need to issue to develop its assets
    Feb 12, 2015. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bellatrix Exploration Trading At 23% Of Its Fairly Valued Price [View article]
    PE and share price are not meaningful metrics for evaluating upstream energy companies. Analysts generally use EV/EBTIDA, if they are are using a multiple, as EV better captures the total capital structure and EBITDA avoids earnings distortions from depreciation, hedging, etc.

    In terms of using numerical stock price - share price is nearly meaningless without factoring in number of shares and calculating a market cap. Sure if it were a 2 cent stock, that would tell you something, but a $2 stock versus a $5 stock tells you nothing while comparing market caps or enterprise values tells you a lot more.
    Feb 11, 2015. 09:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hotel Exposure To The Oil Crash [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. Room rates were over $400 during the peak last year. They are far lower now. I just checked on hotwire and there are LQ-quality rooms available for $100 right now. I may write an article about this, highlighting how far and how fast room rates have fallen.
    Feb 10, 2015. 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hotel Exposure To The Oil Crash [View article]
    Yes, LQ still owns ~50% of their properties. Thats partly why it deserves a lower multiple than its comps. That and it having lower end properties which tend to be lower margin.
    Feb 10, 2015. 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Wizard World Provide Magic For Investors? [View article]
    If its too speculative, why do you call it a "unique investment opportunity"?

    And if its an investment opportunity, why not try to value it using some kind of metric or approach?
    Feb 9, 2015. 08:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: La Quinta Insider Selling In Size Opens The Door For Questions And Concerns [View article]
    mk, you should look at occupancy rates for the past month and particularly for the past 2 weeks, during which the rig count has fallen by 20%! 6 months old numbers won't help you much in figuring out how bad its going to be for West Texas, North Dakota, North Colorado, South Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana hotels.
    Feb 9, 2015. 08:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Wizard World Provide Magic For Investors? [View article]
    Interesting article, but no real discussion of valuation
    Feb 9, 2015. 02:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: La Quinta Insider Selling In Size Opens The Door For Questions And Concerns [View article]
    You don't think their substantial over exposure to oil producing states and local areas will mean a net negative effect to their business from lower oil prices?

    Also, you don't think the timing of Blackstone's sales are meaningful? Particularly in concert with insider sales?

    Regardless, I'm glad you put out this article.
    Feb 9, 2015. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: La Quinta Insider Selling In Size Opens The Door For Questions And Concerns [View article]
    Mordant, since you are exclusively interested in LQ on here, why don't you show us the contrary? Management certainly hasn't...
    Feb 9, 2015. 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Price Crash Continues To Affect Oilfield Housing - RV Parks Emptying Out [View article]
    Haha, I hadn't thought about the stripper angle. Where have the strippers and the practitioners of the world's oldest trade been living? When the roughnecks lose their jobs and leave town, I'd imagine all sorts of ancillary industries, such as those, will pack up too.
    Feb 8, 2015. 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
886 Comments
632 Likes