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Josh Young

 
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  • Seeking Alpha Top Idea Explained In Non Technical Language - AusTex Oil [View article]
    Nathan, I think thats pretty much it. I'm going to write an article about that at some point.
    Jan 26 12:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Of The Fastest Growing E&P Companies [View article]
    I looked at Lynden closely, trades at a premium to proved reserve value and was historically heavily promoted. Perhaps it will get interesting if Mitchell Ranch works out, but it looks like that ranch is too far east away from industry activity. I'm not sure why you'd own Lynden rather than Austex, particularly considering the positive changes Austex is going through that are mitigating your concerns.
    Jan 24 05:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Ford Shale: Economic Side Effects Of Downspacing [View article]
    Great article, really interesting. Perhaps this means there may be less downspacing than is currently being forecast, which could lead to less rapid and less capital efficient production growth, supporting the price of oil...
    Jan 24 04:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Top Idea Explained In Non Technical Language - AusTex Oil [View article]
    Its an in-the-money preferred at this point. Likely not worth 60% more than intrinsic value - the value gap closes considerably as the stock appreciates. There are models for this. I'd rather not spend the time running the analysis, but my thought is maybe a ~20% premium to IV.

    I'll caveat by saying this and all of my comments are subject to the disclaimer in the article. I am not giving official valuation advice, just sharing personal thoughts which should be taken as such.
    Jan 24 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Of The Fastest Growing E&P Companies [View article]
    The January 2014 presentation was different from every other presentation the company has released in the past 2+ years. It used old numbers and out of date information. It appears to be timed with the former CEO leaving. For now I will rely on analysis by experienced, well connected sell side analysts and on my own analysis, as well as that of other intelligent, experienced buy side investors in the name. I'm certainly not "making up" anything.

    The biggest pushback on Austex for the longest time was that it was a cheap stock that didn't ever go up. (the second biggest was G&A, which is getting resolved).

    But I will take the Icahn comparison as a compliment. He did well in Herbalife, and I think Michael Stone (who did well in Herbalife WAY before Icahn) and I and other ATXDY investors may do well in Austex.
    Jan 24 02:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Top Idea Explained In Non Technical Language - AusTex Oil [View article]
    Conversion price of $7.50, not $5.

    If you so fervently believe in the PWC report, why would you have sold your stock below $12.15?

    It just doesn't make sense to me that you are so positive AND so negative on the company simultaneously. They are moving in the right direction on the production AND on the G&A front. The assets are amazing and the stock trades at a large discount to intrinsic value. What more are you looking for, and why be so negative when you agree with what I just said?
    Jan 24 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Of The Fastest Growing E&P Companies [View article]
    I used DTX's presentation and publicly disclosed Ebitda numbers, and I used GMP's numbers for ATXDY. I think both should be reasonably reliable.

    DTX is certainly cheap compared to similar sized US E&Ps, albeit slower growing. I stand by my strong preference for ATXDY over DTX.

    And your G&A issue with ATXDY is being addressed. The former CEO likely carried a ~$750k/year G&A burden, which has been removed and seems unlikely to be replaced.
    Jan 24 01:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Top Idea Explained In Non Technical Language - AusTex Oil [View article]
    How do you feel now that the Australian CEO resigned? Should lead to materially lower G&A. And is an indication the new controlling shareholder may feel the same way you do.

    The next round is already an "up" round - it is the exercise of warrants and conversion of convertible debt. People already count it against the company on a fully diluted basis, good to see the company actually getting some cash in from it.
    Jan 24 12:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Top Idea Explained In Non Technical Language - AusTex Oil [View article]
    No, the company was producing ~1,000 boepd sustained the last time they reported, in early December, and I think they're probably producing a little more than that.

    I was trying to de-code their most recent presentation, which appears to have used year-old information both for reserves and production guidance. We'll see what else they put out in the near term, now that there has been some change in the board room and executive team.

    You're taking something simple and making it complicated. It appears you:

    a) agree that the stock is incredibly cheap

    and b) don't like that the company has issued stock around the current price to finance their growth

    I agree with a and I think the company may be done diluting itself for now, so b should in theory bother you less and less over time.
    Jan 23 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Of The Fastest Growing E&P Companies [View article]
    Does it? What do you think ATXDY's EV/2014 EBITDA is? And what do you think DTX's is?

    GMP has ATXDY at less than 4x EV/2014 EBITDA. DTX is projecting 30% growth and was trading at 8.6x EV/trailing EBITDA, implying ~6.6x EV/2014 EBTIDA.
    Jan 23 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Top Idea Explained In Non Technical Language - AusTex Oil [View article]
    Thanks Bill, I appreciate that. Have you had a chance to look at Austex? What are your thoughts?
    Jan 23 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Top Idea Explained In Non Technical Language - AusTex Oil [View article]
    Bankstocks,

    A) please don't "demand" I reply to your comments on here immediately. You have my phone number and email address, and I have a full time job managing money for clients.

    B) the presentation Joe cited is full of discrepancies and seems to be based on early 2013 numbers. For example, it cites a March 2013 reserve report, when there has been a more recent reserve report cited here (http://bit.ly/1mLObsy) and in the PWC report.

    C) analysts at GMP and RBS Morgan are forecasting numbers in line with my numbers. If you don't want to believe me, thats fine, but for a small cap stock GMP and RBS are incentivized to be conservative in their equity research - it is just not worth it to be overly aggressive relative to reputational risk.
    Jan 23 01:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Top Idea Explained In Non Technical Language - AusTex Oil [View article]
    Bankstocks, they could spend $50 mm this year - $20 mm from the preferred, ~$10 mm from cash flow and $20 mm from bank debt they may bring on mid year. And with the stock well above the conversion price of the convertible debt and trading with significant volume, they may be able to spend all of that on drilling.

    They already have a lot of the necessary infrastructure in place to get there.

    Thanks for your intense interest in this stock.
    Jan 23 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Great Investment Idea: AusTex Oil Is Trading At 1/3 Of Proved Reserve Value, Growing 300% Per Year [View article]
    Joe, there are a number of discrepancies in this most recent presentation, which was released subsequent to my top idea article. For example, it uses out of date reserve numbers. The PWC report and a previous update (http://bit.ly/1mLObsy) cited a more recent reserve report. I won't speculate as to why they used outdated numbers, but considering the discrepancies, I wouldn't rely on it.

    GMP and RBS Morgan both have much higher projections than 1600 boepd for exit 2014.

    I'm looking for public releases of 2014 guidance. While I'm looking, using bankstock's cost back-in, which was a little high because a lot of infrastructure is already built out, if they spent $25 million to get to over 1,000 boepd and are spending their $20 million cash, ~$10-15 million from cash flow, and $10-20 million from bank debt added mid year, that should be $40-50 million this year, which gets them to ~3,000 boepd. This is subject to timing of capex, and assumes new wells are equivalent to old wells (the wells generally seem to be getting better as they get more familiar with the play). My guess is the 1,600 boepd exit was a pre- october 2013 equity raise number. With the incremental $17.5 million, there should be incremental 1,000-1,500 boepd exit production.
    Jan 23 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Great Investment Idea: AusTex Oil Is Trading At 1/3 Of Proved Reserve Value, Growing 300% Per Year [View article]
    Their presentation says that they are CURRENTLY at 1,600 gross BOEPD. That is different from saying that their year end goal is 1600. Net they were at ~1,000 boepd at the end of December and have said numerous times they are targetting 2,500-3,000 boepd for the end of 2014, and sell side analysts are projecting that they reach that number.
    Jan 22 08:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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