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Josh Young

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  • Five Of The Fastest Growing E&P Companies [View article]
    Oxboro, thanks for the comment. It costs ~$600,000 per well and the 90 day ip looks like it is ~60 boepd. Very high irr, payout in less than 1 year... they are vertical wells. With a 29 out of 29 success rate.
    Jan 19 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Shell And Oil Majors, Buy High Growth Undervalued Juniors [View article]
    Looks tough on a valuation basis. STO and CVX have done a better job recently than the other oil majors but still aren't cheap and could run into similar issues over time. I strongly prefer super fast growing, super cheap small caps like ATXDY
    Jan 19 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Royal Dutch Shell: 'Shell Shock' Offering Buying Opportunity? [View article]
    I agree its a buying opportunity, but perhaps not to buy Shell stock. I wrote an article about their report too, suggested perhaps it makes sense to look for smaller, more undervalued oil companies: http://seekingalpha.co...

    I'll take another look at the European oil companies you suggest. But I think Australian traded ones with US assets like Austex might be even cheaper.
    Jan 19 02:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Herbalife Regulatory Risk Too High To Invest? Nu Skin Aftermath [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. You make some great points, but I'm not sure it is a sure thing that HLF "crumbles". It may happen, but HLF has existed for decades so far...
    Jan 19 02:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Herbalife Regulatory Risk Too High To Invest? Nu Skin Aftermath [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. That is definitely the bull thesis. I am not short either stock, but I am definitely more cautious, as regulatory risk is real here.
    Jan 19 02:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Of The Fastest Growing E&P Companies [View article]
    Thanks for your comment. I discuss the troubles major oil companies are having with growing production in the below article, which makes me more comfortable with having long oil price exposure to stocks like ATXDY. Here is the article http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 19 02:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Two Reasons Why Herbalife Was Not Bought Out In The Midst Of A Bear Raid - A Theory [View article]
    More precisely, the guy who took it private in 02 and bid to take it private in 07 found something more compelling.
    Jan 18 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Two Reasons Why Herbalife Was Not Bought Out In The Midst Of A Bear Raid - A Theory [View article]
    Anyone can make a bid at any time for a public company, audit or not, unless they are legally or contractually restricted. So my understanding is that your assumptions are faulty.
    Jan 17 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Yield, High Risk: Royalty Trust Wealth Destruction And Opportunity Update [View article]
    Thanks, I appreciate that. I was just trying to caution people and share my sense of caution regarding the space. Sometimes high yield comes with high risk.
    Jan 17 03:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Two Reasons Why Herbalife Was Not Bought Out In The Midst Of A Bear Raid - A Theory [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. Its about both - JH Whitney's no-bid on Herbalife seems related to its former Managing Director's recent 30% position in Austex.
    Jan 17 03:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Great Investment Idea: AusTex Oil Is Trading At 1/3 Of Proved Reserve Value, Growing 300% Per Year [View article]
    J,

    Thanks for the note. Yes, there are substantial warrants and convertible notes outstanding. Yes, I look at the dilution like you do - it hurts the equity valuation somewhat, but also helps because it de-levers the company as the stock price rises and gives them cash to accelerate development. If the stock were at $15 usd today with volume, the company could potentially rapidly increase the number of wells drilled per month and could exit the year with way more than 3,000 boepd of production, driving further equity value.
    Jan 14 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Great Investment Idea: AusTex Oil Is Trading At 1/3 Of Proved Reserve Value, Growing 300% Per Year [View article]
    Should be both. Revenue and cash flow of course matter, as they do for any business.
    Jan 14 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Great Investment Idea: AusTex Oil Is Trading At 1/3 Of Proved Reserve Value, Growing 300% Per Year [View article]
    Adam, thanks for the comment, you've done some great work here on seekingalpha. Austex primarily trades on the ASX. It is very common for much larger companies that trade on foreign exchanges to be listed on the otc as well.

    In Austex's case in particular, considering it has us assets, listing on a major us exchange could help.
    Jan 14 08:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Great Investment Idea: AusTex Oil Is Trading At 1/3 Of Proved Reserve Value, Growing 300% Per Year [View article]
    Their reserve report is compliant with Canadian and Australian exchange standards, and is consistent with other public e&p companies. Please share more about your "maths"
    Jan 14 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Great Investment Idea: AusTex Oil Is Trading At 1/3 Of Proved Reserve Value, Growing 300% Per Year [View article]
    Thanks, I really appreciate that comment, glad you're making some money on this idea. I agree that it was remarkable to see the PWC fairness opinion. Has anyone ever seen a fairness opinion that said a deal was unfair, particularly when the author of the opinion (PWC in this case) was being paid by the party seeking the opinion (Austex in this case)?
    Jan 13 11:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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