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Josh Young  

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  • Kinder Morgan Buys Harold Hamm's Hiland Partners - Should Continental Have Benefited? [View article]
    "Guaranteed he is plowing all that money into CLR right now" - really? I don't see any mention of that in the SEC filings. Looks like he's using the proceeds to fund his $1 billion divorce settlement with his wife.

    Shareholders of CLR are not benefiting from it. They are stuck in a long term contract paying a high price per barrel to transport their oil. And they missed out on a 20x+ return. How is that not fishy.
    Feb 1, 2015. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Games People Play [View article]
    Great article by a brilliant super-investor.
    Jan 29, 2015. 06:10 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profit From The Oil Price Crash And Follow Blackstone: Short La Quinta Holdings [View article]
    Thanks Mark. That looks interesting, although impact will be delayed compared to the impact to lodging providers like LQ.
    Jan 29, 2015. 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanderson Farms And Pilgrim's Pride: A Game Of Chicken [View article]
    What about potential price deflation of chicken?
    Jan 29, 2015. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanderson Farms And Pilgrim's Pride: A Game Of Chicken [View article]
    Interesting article. What about additions to chicken "production" capacity?
    Jan 29, 2015. 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Sector Stock I Dream About Owning One Day [View article]
    Rough forecast for CLB. I agree this is a high quality company and I just need the right valuation before investing.
    Jan 29, 2015. 08:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Exxon, Chevron And Shell Low Cost Oil Producers? [View article]
    Interesting article. I agree and wrote about this a while ago ... http://bit.ly/1JL3wEq - I like the level of detail you went into and your comparisons
    Jan 29, 2015. 01:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley Sees Oil Exposure Risk, Lowers La Quinta's Price Target [View article]
    Not at the 13.5x trailing EV/EBITDA multiple LQ is trading at. Anything less is "dilutive" to shareholders, and it would probably have to be at a lot lower multiple than that.
    Jan 29, 2015. 01:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Brutal Texas Dallas Fed Numbers [View article]
    No, oil producing states will feel the brunt of this. I think this report is supportive of my thesis that Texas will go into a recession in 2015. And that La Quinta, as the most exposed hotel company to Texas that I am aware of, will suffer declining revenue and margins in 2015.
    Jan 29, 2015. 01:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley Sees Oil Exposure Risk, Lowers La Quinta's Price Target [View article]
    I don't think they could sell for anywhere close to their current valuation. Who's going to buy a hotel in Midland or Houston today based on peak valuation multiples on peak room rates and occupancy?

    Also, they've given no indication that they are looking to sell.
    Jan 28, 2015. 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profit From The Oil Price Crash And Follow Blackstone: Short La Quinta Holdings [View article]
    Thanks. Do companies pay Cramer to promote them?
    Jan 28, 2015. 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Sector Stock I Dream About Owning One Day [View article]
    For the energy companies listed as comps, it doesn't seem like there's much of a relationship between free cash flow yield and recent stock price performance. The free cash flow positive stocks looks like they're down around as much as negative FCF stocks...
    Jan 28, 2015. 02:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley Sees Oil Exposure Risk, Lowers La Quinta's Price Target [View article]
    Thanks for the long and detailed comment. A few thoughts:

    1) room rates in Midland had been as high as $400 per night, and in similar places in ND and West Texas had been well over $200 per night. So that revpar you were estimating pre-crash should be higher.

    2) room rates are already declining. you can observe this on websites that track room prices, and you can also see this by looking at the room rates available on kayak and also the discounted hotels on hotwire

    3) there are call kinds of insufficient disclosures by LQ that are inconsistent with disclosures by other similar public lodging companies. it makes analysis more difficult and is likely obscuring the impact of the downturn

    4) things are bad and getting worse in West Texas and elsewhere. Room rates have already fallen there and in Houston. Rigs are only down 17% from the peak, but analysts are expecting the rig count to fall a total of 30-50% over the next few months from the peak. So however bad things have been for hotel rates and occupancy, they're about to get considerably worse.
    Jan 28, 2015. 12:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Brutal Texas Dallas Fed Numbers [View article]
    Probably, but companies like Denny's don't have the same kind of cyclical headwinds. In fact, probably the opposite, the lower income customer base of Denny's in places other than Texas is experiencing a wealth effect from lower gas prices. With slightly more money to spend, that customer will eat at Denny's more and at home less. The oil worker in west Texas, however, will stay at fewer hotels near well sites...
    Jan 27, 2015. 08:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Brutal Texas Dallas Fed Numbers [View article]
    Unclear, my crystal ball is broken.

    I prefer to focus on hotels for now, they are shorter cycle. La Quinta room rates in Texas look like they're already down 10%+ and half of their hotels are in oil states like Texas.
    Jan 27, 2015. 07:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
886 Comments
632 Likes