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Josh Young  

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  • Kinder Morgan Buys Harold Hamm's Hiland Partners - Should Continental Have Benefited? [View article]
    While they are separate companies, being a CEO and a board member involves fiduciary duties. I think its an interesting question how those duties were fulfilled, particularly considering the huge stakes.

    Ironically it might have been more lucrative for Hamm to have had Continental buy Hiland in 2009. Imagine how much CLR stock would go up if it was getting $2.5 billion in the door today. With his large CLR stake, he might have made more than $2.35 billion mark to market on his CLR position. Obviously lots of "might haves" versus $2.5 billion in his pocket. But it is another consideration.
    Jan 23, 2015. 01:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley Sees Oil Exposure Risk, Lowers La Quinta's Price Target [View article]
    Thanks Kay. Can you talk about why you own puts?
    Jan 23, 2015. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheniere Energy: A Scary Midstream Stock To Avoid [View article]
    Very interesting, thorough writeup. Have you thought about what you might be missing? Seth Klarman has his reputation for a reason...
    Jan 22, 2015. 08:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profit From The Oil Price Crash And Follow Blackstone: Short La Quinta Holdings [View article]
    Cramer and thestreet.com pumping it? LQ hotel rates certainly aren't at 52 week highs!
    Jan 22, 2015. 05:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Slow But Steady, Value Erosion Is Underway [View article]
    Retired Aviator, marginal cost of production is an interesting metric. Are you asking what Exxon's first barrel costs or its last barrel or what an incremental barrel would cost?

    My bet is that there is a HUGE variance, and that Exxon's true marginal cost of incremental production is higher than many other public oil and gas companies.
    Jan 20, 2015. 11:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Slow But Steady, Value Erosion Is Underway [View article]
    Great article Richard, and interesting insight Michael. I wrote about this, albeit in a lot less detail, almost exactly a year ago. - http://bit.ly/1Bd0e8V - I think the oil majors are challenged. They were at $100 oil and they will be even more so at current oil prices. Obviously their stock prices have held up, but their fundamentals have not. Thanks for adding detail and depth to this conversation.
    Jan 20, 2015. 11:11 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hotel Exposure To The Oil Crash [View article]
    The numbers for the Texas comptroller tie with the numbers from La Quinta's filings, that is a non issue. Hyatt and Hilton don't disclose their number of Texas hotels because they don't have to - they are much less exposed to Texas than La Quinta on a percentage basis, so I found another source.

    La Quinta has something like 50% of its hotels in oil states like Texas and North Dakota. It will get hit by both the direct impact of a drilling slowdown as well as the wealth effect lower oil prices have on those states - look at what happened to hotels in Texas in the 1980s. La Quinta is the most exposed to that.

    Note management's selective disclosure today - http://seekingalpha.co...
    And make sure to read the article where I lay out my full thesis - http://seekingalpha.co...

    At the very least, the aggressive sales by Blackstone AND by the CEO and CFO should catch your attention. Is it ever a good sign when a controlling shareholder and the executive team all sell a large portion of their holdings in a company?
    Jan 20, 2015. 08:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Selective Disclosure Highlights La Quinta's Oil Exposure [View article]
    Thanks Michael, well said. Their disclosure was absurdly, obviously selective. To the point where it makes you wonder what they aren't disclosing.

    Also, no one is saying Q4 will be disastrous. The bigger question is run rate, Q1 and then what things look like going forward. Q4 could have been great and it wouldn't mean anything - the worst movement in E&P stocks and in the oil price was from Thanksgiving to the end of the year, and capex budgets have come down much farther than expected already, but those cuts are only now starting to be seen and felt.
    Jan 20, 2015. 08:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 Oil Prices Are Key To Bakken Rig Movement [View article]
    Douglas, marginal wells are used to delineate areas and to discover new resources and hone new drilling techniques. Also, 30%+ IRRs were high enough to justify capital investment, so with projected $100 oil whole companies were built around developing assets that are uneconomic at current sub $50 oil prices.
    Jan 19, 2015. 08:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • La Quinta's Follow Through Of Operating Excellence And Free Cash Flow Generation Make It A Growth Favorite In 2015 [View article]
    It is mentioned but understated. Why else do you think insiders and the controlling shareholder are dumping their stock?
    Jan 19, 2015. 07:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 Oil Prices Are Key To Bakken Rig Movement [View article]
    Iran says a lot of things
    Jan 19, 2015. 07:21 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Main Bearish Thesis On Crude [View article]
    Interesting article. It sounds like you don't have high conviction on this bearish thesis. Is that fair to say?
    Jan 19, 2015. 04:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 Oil Prices Are Key To Bakken Rig Movement [View article]
    Fred, I think if oil prices stay low, this number will go down a lot over time...
    Jan 19, 2015. 04:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 Oil Prices Are Key To Bakken Rig Movement [View article]
    great article, as usual. any thoughts on lodging providers in places like north dakota? I wrote an article about one, La Quinta, which is over exposed to west texas and north dakota, and has a bunch of debt (http://seekingalpha.co...) - what do you think?
    Jan 19, 2015. 03:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Holloway Lodging Update: Oil Pains [View article]
    Thanks for the reference to my article on La Quinta. It looks like Holloway is active with their normal course issuer bid, versus La Quinta management and controlling shareholder dumping stock. And as you mention in your article, Holloway trades at a discount to NAV. While I wouldn't personally own Holloway here, I prefer to be short La Quinta. (for relevant disclosures, see http://bit.ly/1KTTEti)

    One specific reason is that I don't think there was the same kind of boomtown effect in Western Alberta as there was in West Texas or North Dakota. Room rates didn't get quite as inflated, which means there's less room for them to come down and less of an effect on earnings.
    Jan 19, 2015. 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
875 Comments
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