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Josh Young

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  • The Periphery Is Failing [View article]
    Interesting article. I'd like to hear more about the specific periphery you are talking about for this particular crisis and what evidence there is that it is failing. Versus 6 months ago or a year ago or something.
    Aug 27 07:14 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Seeking Alpha Is Doing To Prevent Paid Stock Promotion [View article]
    Great article. Amit, that's an interesting idea.
    Mar 27 06:53 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II: More Risk, More Reward [View article]
    Respectfully, you seem to have missed a major problem with SDR. You didn't seem to notice that they accelerated their development and at their current rate will be done drilling by mid 2014, implying peak production and distributions by the end of 2014, followed by a precipitous drop off. The wells have substantially underperformed, and that underperformance has been obscured by the accelerated drilling. Also, once the drilling is done, subordination goes away 12 months later, which is also not accurately captured.

    I really enjoyed your PER writeup and think you captured the attractiveness of that investment. Unfortunately I don't think this analysis was quite as thorough nor was it as accurate.
    Apr 24 07:41 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Don't Believe Bloomberg's Google Rumor [View article]
    Thanks. I really like your writing style, and this was an interesting article.
    Dec 13 03:18 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Herbalife Regulatory Risk Too High To Invest? Nu Skin Aftermath [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. You make some great points, but I'm not sure it is a sure thing that HLF "crumbles". It may happen, but HLF has existed for decades so far...
    Jan 19 02:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Great Investment Idea: AusTex Oil Is Trading At 1/3 Of Proved Reserve Value, Growing 300% Per Year [View article]
    Great article, I commented on it and have previously discussed Sandridge's issues, and I actually said in an article a while back that Sandridge's royalty trust results indicated bad future well results and problems for the parent company. Austex is focused on a specific core vertical field in an area Sandridge doesn't have much exposure to. Apples and oranges. Thank you for the comment and the opportunity to make the distinction.
    Jan 11 12:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Synergy's Q3 Is Good, But Q4 Will Be Much Better [View article]
    Bill,

    Other high growth E&Ps trade at a fraction of the valuation you're describing. Why do you think SYRG merits trading much higher than the comp set?

    I don't see how it makes any sense to value an E&P at $150,000 per flowing barrel based on an exit production rate a year from now.

    And I'm not sure it makes sense to assume they'll actually achieve the production growth targets they are setting (it takes a lot to get from 2,400 boepd to 7,000 boepd in a year).

    The most recent sell side reports I've seen are valuing Bakken production (with much higher netbacks than Wattenberg boe's) at $60,000 per boepd. At $60,000 per boepd, SYRG's current market value looks rather stretched compared to that implied value.
    Nov 12 02:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sandridge Could Be Further Negatively Impacted By Poor Trust Well Performance [View article]
    I'm not sure what your point is? Do you disagree with this argument? I did the detailed work and the results look ugly, and I linked to the press release which goes through the details. My point was that the trusts are generating disappointing results, and this will read through negatively to SD, and I believe that is conveyed without specifying if PER drilled 80 wells or 50.
    Apr 26 02:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Amazon Law' Is The Signal To Sell Far Overpriced Amazon [View article]
    Great article. AMZN stock price confounds me, particularly when there are ridiculously cheap, rapidly growing stocks out there http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 22 01:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Small Oil Stocks Surging - Time To Look Off The Beaten Path? [View article]
    There have been a lot of scammy US listed Chinese stocks that have imploded. Its not obvious to me that LPH isn't going to implode in the future. I'd stick with oil companies active in domiciles that respect property rights, such as in the US, Canada, Australia, etc.
    Sep 27 06:11 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Royalty Trust Wealth Destruction And Opportunity [View article]
    That's right, 3 years, not two and a half. However, production is declining and hedges will run out at the end of 2012, so distributions could fall meaningfully in the meantime. It could actually pay out much less than $7, versus the current $17 unit price.
    May 25 02:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baytex Bids To Buy Out Aurora Oil: Investment Implications [View article]
    Obviously not
    Feb 14 12:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Battleground Growth Stocks: Facebook, Tesla And Netflix [View article]
    Thanks, I appreciate that. Its amazing to me that individual investors buy in to multi-billion dollar momentum plays and think they have some kind of edge or somehow are going to earn above-market returns.

    Skill aside, value-priced, smaller cap stocks statistically perform much better than the market. And with some skill, they perform even better...
    Jan 30 02:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Great Investment Idea: AusTex Oil Is Trading At 1/3 Of Proved Reserve Value, Growing 300% Per Year [View article]
    Jay,

    I've been invested in Austex for a while in a number of different ways. I participated in a senior secured convertible offering 19 months ago, convertible at 15 cents per AOK share (AOK was trading at ~13.5 cents per share when I wrote this article). I then purchased a considerable amount of stock in the open market for myself and clients, at approximately 13.5 cents per share. And I think participated in convertible preferred offering, convertible at 16 cents per share (versus the 13.5 cents per share it was trading at prior to this article).

    Thus my exposure was at or above the market price prior to this article. I don't generally give this much disclosure regarding my cost bases, but you do bring up a valid point that not all of my shares were bought in the open market - the ones that weren't had higher! strike prices than the then-market price of the stock.

    It seems like you are making 2 points - 1) I bought stock off the market and 2) the stock is not the same price as it was two weeks ago.

    1) is true, but at higher effective prices than the market price. this indicates my confidence in the company and the prospects of the stock

    2) could be said about any stock, few stocks stay at a static price. Yes, it is higher, but just a little, so now perhaps it trades for ~40% of its proved reserve value instead of 33% - I have not sold a share and I expect substantial upside in my position.
    Jan 20 12:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Great Investment Idea: AusTex Oil Is Trading At 1/3 Of Proved Reserve Value, Growing 300% Per Year [View article]
    Thanks for the question. Not very common.

    I should have included in my article this little factoid- Austex raised some money recently and hired PWC to do a fairness opinion. PWC said the deal was "reasonable but not fair" because the stock is worth 50-100% more than it was trading for. This is extremely uncommon, as firms are hired to give fairness opinions on the understanding they will say the deal is fair! So PWC was incentivized to give a low estimate for Austex's value, and they still said it was worth at least 50-100% more than the deal price (deal was at ~$7 per shares)!!!
    Jan 10 11:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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