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Josh Young

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  • An End To Our Relationship With Yahoo, A New Era For Equity Research [View article]
    I think this is an interesting idea.

    Have you thought about tracking mobile views again and paying authors for those instead of a fixed additional amount of money? As an author, I like to be able to know how many people are actually reading my articles, matters more to me than getting paid a little more.
    Jul 25, 2014. 03:19 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Everything Has Changed: Oil, Saudi Arabia, And The End Of OPEC [View article]
    Between 2000 and now, world oil production and consumption has increased substantially, and the price of oil is up considerably as well.
    Jan 13, 2015. 12:37 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan And The Good, The Bad And The Ugly Truth Regarding Falling Oil Prices [View article]
    "every $1 change in the average WTI crude oil price per barrel will impact the CO2 segment by approximately $7 million pre tax"

    Oil is down ~$50 from its peak, so that should have an impact of ~$350 million. Thats roughly 5% of KMI's EBITDA. That is neither minute nor inconsequential.

    Also, no one is talking about all of the projects that won't get filled, nor are they talked about the negative credit impact this has had on the upstream companies that supply KMI with product. Lower credit suppliers implies higher required rates of return from projects (because of greater risk they default on their take or pay contracts with KMI).

    The midstream stocks have not been impacted too much so far, but if this oil downturn lasts for much longer, they will be.
    Dec 16, 2014. 04:20 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Periphery Is Failing [View article]
    Interesting article. I'd like to hear more about the specific periphery you are talking about for this particular crisis and what evidence there is that it is failing. Versus 6 months ago or a year ago or something.
    Aug 27, 2013. 07:14 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crash In Oil Prices Raises Questions And Opportunities For A Lifetime [View article]
    J, I think you're right on the money. It is ironic that this article focuses on two of the oil producer stocks that are down the least.

    I think its interesting to think about potentially attractive longs and shorts here. I wrote about a potential short and am in the process of writing about one that I've been in the process of shorting.

    One of the most obvious implications of the drop in the price of oil, even if it is temporary, is the economic impact on oil producing states, particularly Texas

    And on the long side, I like some of the smaller companies you mentioned in your list.
    Jan 6, 2015. 04:36 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 Oil Prices Are Key To Bakken Rig Movement [View article]
    Iran says a lot of things
    Jan 19, 2015. 07:21 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Seeking Alpha Is Doing To Prevent Paid Stock Promotion [View article]
    Great article. Amit, that's an interesting idea.
    Mar 27, 2014. 06:53 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Shale Oil: What Doesn't Kill Me Makes Me Stronger [View article]
    Thats a natural gas price ( not gasoline at the pump price.

    Richard, I think the best play here is selling stocks of companies that serve the oil and gas industry but have not traded off for whatever reason. Look at LQ, they house oil workers across texas and north dakota, but their stock is at an all time high -
    Jan 13, 2015. 08:45 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cheap Oil May Be Here To Stay [View article]
    Specifically, you should look at F&D + LOE. And you shouldn't just look at EOG's economics, EOG is only producing a small fraction of the oil in the US. You should look at the more marginal drillers as well, and if they aren't drilling and might go bankrupt, you should incorporate the absence of that production in forecast production levels.

    I think the result of this analysis is clear. The price of oil will be a lot higher in two years than it is today.
    Dec 22, 2014. 12:17 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II: More Risk, More Reward [View article]
    Respectfully, you seem to have missed a major problem with SDR. You didn't seem to notice that they accelerated their development and at their current rate will be done drilling by mid 2014, implying peak production and distributions by the end of 2014, followed by a precipitous drop off. The wells have substantially underperformed, and that underperformance has been obscured by the accelerated drilling. Also, once the drilling is done, subordination goes away 12 months later, which is also not accurately captured.

    I really enjoyed your PER writeup and think you captured the attractiveness of that investment. Unfortunately I don't think this analysis was quite as thorough nor was it as accurate.
    Apr 24, 2013. 07:41 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Slow But Steady, Value Erosion Is Underway [View article]
    Great article Richard, and interesting insight Michael. I wrote about this, albeit in a lot less detail, almost exactly a year ago. - - I think the oil majors are challenged. They were at $100 oil and they will be even more so at current oil prices. Obviously their stock prices have held up, but their fundamentals have not. Thanks for adding detail and depth to this conversation.
    Jan 20, 2015. 11:11 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cheap Oil May Be Here To Stay [View article]
    I think there is some confusion here about what half cycle economics mean. I think the actual marginal cost of production is a lot higher than what you're showing.
    Dec 21, 2014. 10:52 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Don't Believe Bloomberg's Google Rumor [View article]
    Thanks. I really like your writing style, and this was an interesting article.
    Dec 13, 2013. 03:18 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    GDP isn't measured by government income tax receipts, it is a measure of economic activity. the barrels of oil produced and sold in the state contribute to GDP...
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Herbalife Regulatory Risk Too High To Invest? Nu Skin Aftermath [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. You make some great points, but I'm not sure it is a sure thing that HLF "crumbles". It may happen, but HLF has existed for decades so far...
    Jan 19, 2014. 02:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment