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Josh Young  

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  • Penn Virginia Corporation: Has George Soros Arrived Too Late To The Party ? [View article]
    Great call on PVA. Incidentally, the stock price of every company mentioned in the comp set in this article is down 75%+ since publication, including Nighthawk. But Nighthawk has outperformed on a relative basis...
    Jul 27, 2015. 05:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Free Fall Coming For Six Flags Shares [View article]
    Interesting article. FYI, Jim Simon's Renaissance Technologies is a huge quant fund, famous for its high investment performance. It is highly unlikely any kind of "deal" between Six Flags and Renaissance was struck. I wouldn't read anything into ownership by Renaissance, at it sometimes owns stock for hours and sometimes years, entirely driven by computer algorithms.
    Jul 14, 2015. 03:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Shale Oil Follow In The Footsteps Of Shale Gas? [View article]
    Interesting analysis, thanks for sharing.

    Unfortunately the analysis seems to fall into the familiar pattern of being bearish in a down market, after the analyst was bullish in an up market / when prices first started to fall.

    Whats missing here is the scale of US shale oil production vs total oil production worldwide. You showed relative production growth, but not the overall production base or natural decline rate worldwide.

    Also, quantifying "core" inventory is probably a relevant exercise. "Is shale oil's 'collective marcellus' big enough" is a relevant question, and can be addressed with data.
    Jul 14, 2015. 02:02 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NiSource Is Overvalued And Speculative [View article]
    Thanks for sharing. This type of regimented analysis and regimented investing is partly why there is an opportunity with NiSource.

    Pipeline companies and utility companies are valued differently, and the combination of the two businesses made NiSource screen poorly from both perspectives.

    One important consideration is the hostile bid for Williams (WMB), which implies a huge value for Columbia, substantially above its current implied price in NiSource and "when-issued" price.
    Jun 26, 2015. 01:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Oil Sands And U.S. Shale: Innovation Via Necessity [View article]
    Interesting article. I'm skeptical about the radio wave technology, and it seems important to factor in capital costs of infill wells when considering their economic impact on a project. But it is good to learn about ongoing innovations in the oil sands space.
    Jun 25, 2015. 03:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NiSource: Lowest Risk, Highest Return Income Investment In 2015 [View article]
    Compared to the valuation of the KMI, WMB, etc complexes, CPPL is undervalued to fairly valued, and NI is substantially undervalued. I'm not sure that KMI or WMB are particularly cheap, but it is possible to use them (and CPPL) to hedge a position in NI.
    May 28, 2015. 05:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NiSource: Lowest Risk, Highest Return Income Investment In 2015 [View article]
    Barry, thanks for the comment. The CPPL read-through is validated by the valuation of pipeline focused C corps like Williams and Kinder.

    Don't forget the $12-$15 billion in growth capex available to NiSource / CPG over the next 10 years, all of which can potentially drop down to CPPL in addition to the existing assets. Visible growth capex opportunities are one reason for Kinder and Williams high valuations, and that is true for CPG too.
    May 27, 2015. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Riddle Behind China's Export/Import Numbers [View article]
    Interesting article. However, I'm not convinced on the oil and gas shipments though - the shale boom in the US has dramatically reduced demand for oil imports from the worlds largest oil importer (the US), supplanted by domestic oil production.
    May 26, 2015. 05:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • La Quinta Texas Room Rates Drop 25%, Management Evades Question About Regional Exposure [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1C8z0xI

    "Dallas Fed numbers collapse at fastest pace since Lehman"... we'll see
    Apr 1, 2015. 12:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • La Quinta Texas Room Rates Drop 25%, Management Evades Question About Regional Exposure [View article]
    Shaw, what do you think of the just-announced 17,500,000 secondary offering by Blackstone?

    Lets see if those sales happen. There's a reason Blackstone IPO'd this into a weak market instead of selling the underlying assets or turning it into a REIT. And lets see those franchises actually open, and see if EBITDA actually grows for the year.
    Mar 23, 2015. 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • La Quinta Texas Room Rates Drop 25%, Management Evades Question About Regional Exposure [View article]
    Raj, the "market clearing" price on that day was $58. LQ has exposure to a number of these "small markets" with exposure to oil. LQ RevPAR increased coinciding with economic growth and increased employment in their underlying markets, almost half of which are Texas and other oil states.

    If the stock is at $24 with a 5 year string of rev par growth, what will it be at when rev par "surprises" lower? The fundamentals are in place for rev par to disappoint, and management is evading answering questions about those fundamentals.

    I think about Rex Energy (REXX), which had traded up to almost $30 on the back of quarter over quarter growth from 2009 to 2013, consistently beating numbers. When they stated missing numbers, that stock went all the way down to $2.50, down over 90% peak to trough. I don't think LQ's fundamentals are likely to deteriorate as much as REXX's did, but the point is that "beat and raise" stocks tend to fall materially when they miss. And LQ's fundamentals seem to be lining up for a big miss.
    Mar 20, 2015. 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: Dallas Sellers Club [View article]
    Hi Eric, have you looked at my work on La Quinta? I think lodging may also be substantially negatively impacted, and La Quinta (LQ) seems to have the most regional exposure. It has actually traded up even more than these banks.
    Mar 19, 2015. 01:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • La Quinta Texas Room Rates Drop 25%, Management Evades Question About Regional Exposure [View article]
    1) at $58, it is unlikely they are making money
    2) it is in the data but is a much longer conversation
    3) Blackstone is the controlling shareholder and just filed that it is selling another 15-20% of La Quinta
    4) what? 2009 was the last downturn. the low 4 star hotel rates then are indicative. I recall 2.5 star hotels going for <$30 per night.
    5) Short interest ticked up materially in the past few months. There are 3 million more shares short now than on December 31st, over $60 million. I'll politely suggest that large additions to short positions are more material than anonymous internet troll comments.
    Mar 17, 2015. 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • La Quinta Texas Room Rates Drop 25%, Management Evades Question About Regional Exposure [View article]
    Why would you want to own a stock going into further massive insider selling? Blackstone is a great investment firm. I'd rather go the direction they're going than the other way. They're selling, I'm shorting, and you're... buying?
    Mar 13, 2015. 03:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • La Quinta Texas Room Rates Drop 25%, Management Evades Question About Regional Exposure [View article]
    Shaw, the numbers you're referring to are backwards looking, and in many cases are reflective of an environment prior to the dropping of hundreds of rigs and increased economic malaise in Texas and other key LQ markets.

    Look forwards. Do you really think that over-built markets such as Houston are going to hold up? I stayed at 4 star hotels in Houston in 2009 for ~$50 per night. And my understanding is that things were even worse in the crash of 1986.
    Mar 13, 2015. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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