Seeking Alpha

Josh Young

View as an RSS Feed
View Josh Young's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • An End To Our Relationship With Yahoo, A New Era For Equity Research [View article]
    I think this is an interesting idea.

    Have you thought about tracking mobile views again and paying authors for those instead of a fixed additional amount of money? As an author, I like to be able to know how many people are actually reading my articles, matters more to me than getting paid a little more.
    Jul 25, 2014. 03:19 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan And The Good, The Bad And The Ugly Truth Regarding Falling Oil Prices [View article]
    "every $1 change in the average WTI crude oil price per barrel will impact the CO2 segment by approximately $7 million pre tax"

    Oil is down ~$50 from its peak, so that should have an impact of ~$350 million. Thats roughly 5% of KMI's EBITDA. That is neither minute nor inconsequential.

    Also, no one is talking about all of the projects that won't get filled, nor are they talked about the negative credit impact this has had on the upstream companies that supply KMI with product. Lower credit suppliers implies higher required rates of return from projects (because of greater risk they default on their take or pay contracts with KMI).

    The midstream stocks have not been impacted too much so far, but if this oil downturn lasts for much longer, they will be.
    Dec 16, 2014. 04:20 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Periphery Is Failing [View article]
    Interesting article. I'd like to hear more about the specific periphery you are talking about for this particular crisis and what evidence there is that it is failing. Versus 6 months ago or a year ago or something.
    Aug 27, 2013. 07:14 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Seeking Alpha Is Doing To Prevent Paid Stock Promotion [View article]
    Great article. Amit, that's an interesting idea.
    Mar 27, 2014. 06:53 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II: More Risk, More Reward [View article]
    Respectfully, you seem to have missed a major problem with SDR. You didn't seem to notice that they accelerated their development and at their current rate will be done drilling by mid 2014, implying peak production and distributions by the end of 2014, followed by a precipitous drop off. The wells have substantially underperformed, and that underperformance has been obscured by the accelerated drilling. Also, once the drilling is done, subordination goes away 12 months later, which is also not accurately captured.

    I really enjoyed your PER writeup and think you captured the attractiveness of that investment. Unfortunately I don't think this analysis was quite as thorough nor was it as accurate.
    Apr 24, 2013. 07:41 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cheap Oil May Be Here To Stay [View article]
    Specifically, you should look at F&D + LOE. And you shouldn't just look at EOG's economics, EOG is only producing a small fraction of the oil in the US. You should look at the more marginal drillers as well, and if they aren't drilling and might go bankrupt, you should incorporate the absence of that production in forecast production levels.

    I think the result of this analysis is clear. The price of oil will be a lot higher in two years than it is today.
    Dec 22, 2014. 12:17 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Don't Believe Bloomberg's Google Rumor [View article]
    Thanks. I really like your writing style, and this was an interesting article.
    Dec 13, 2013. 03:18 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    GDP isn't measured by government income tax receipts, it is a measure of economic activity. the barrels of oil produced and sold in the state contribute to GDP...
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cheap Oil May Be Here To Stay [View article]
    I think there is some confusion here about what half cycle economics mean. I think the actual marginal cost of production is a lot higher than what you're showing.
    Dec 21, 2014. 10:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Herbalife Regulatory Risk Too High To Invest? Nu Skin Aftermath [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. You make some great points, but I'm not sure it is a sure thing that HLF "crumbles". It may happen, but HLF has existed for decades so far...
    Jan 19, 2014. 02:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Great Investment Idea: AusTex Oil Is Trading At 1/3 Of Proved Reserve Value, Growing 300% Per Year [View article]
    Great article, I commented on it and have previously discussed Sandridge's issues, and I actually said in an article a while back that Sandridge's royalty trust results indicated bad future well results and problems for the parent company. Austex is focused on a specific core vertical field in an area Sandridge doesn't have much exposure to. Apples and oranges. Thank you for the comment and the opportunity to make the distinction.
    Jan 11, 2014. 12:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Synergy's Q3 Is Good, But Q4 Will Be Much Better [View article]

    Other high growth E&Ps trade at a fraction of the valuation you're describing. Why do you think SYRG merits trading much higher than the comp set?

    I don't see how it makes any sense to value an E&P at $150,000 per flowing barrel based on an exit production rate a year from now.

    And I'm not sure it makes sense to assume they'll actually achieve the production growth targets they are setting (it takes a lot to get from 2,400 boepd to 7,000 boepd in a year).

    The most recent sell side reports I've seen are valuing Bakken production (with much higher netbacks than Wattenberg boe's) at $60,000 per boepd. At $60,000 per boepd, SYRG's current market value looks rather stretched compared to that implied value.
    Nov 12, 2013. 02:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sandridge Could Be Further Negatively Impacted By Poor Trust Well Performance [View article]
    I'm not sure what your point is? Do you disagree with this argument? I did the detailed work and the results look ugly, and I linked to the press release which goes through the details. My point was that the trusts are generating disappointing results, and this will read through negatively to SD, and I believe that is conveyed without specifying if PER drilled 80 wells or 50.
    Apr 26, 2013. 02:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Amazon Law' Is The Signal To Sell Far Overpriced Amazon [View article]
    Great article. AMZN stock price confounds me, particularly when there are ridiculously cheap, rapidly growing stocks out there
    Mar 22, 2013. 01:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Small Oil Stocks Surging - Time To Look Off The Beaten Path? [View article]
    There have been a lot of scammy US listed Chinese stocks that have imploded. Its not obvious to me that LPH isn't going to implode in the future. I'd stick with oil companies active in domiciles that respect property rights, such as in the US, Canada, Australia, etc.
    Sep 27, 2012. 06:11 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment