SandRidge Mississippian Trust II: More Risk, More Reward [View article]
Respectfully, you seem to have missed a major problem with SDR. You didn't seem to notice that they accelerated their development and at their current rate will be done drilling by mid 2014, implying peak production and distributions by the end of 2014, followed by a precipitous drop off. The wells have substantially underperformed, and that underperformance has been obscured by the accelerated drilling. Also, once the drilling is done, subordination goes away 12 months later, which is also not accurately captured.
I really enjoyed your PER writeup and think you captured the attractiveness of that investment. Unfortunately I don't think this analysis was quite as thorough nor was it as accurate.
Sandridge Could Be Further Negatively Impacted By Poor Trust Well Performance [View article]
I'm not sure what your point is? Do you disagree with this argument? I did the detailed work and the results look ugly, and I linked to the press release which goes through the details. My point was that the trusts are generating disappointing results, and this will read through negatively to SD, and I believe that is conveyed without specifying if PER drilled 80 wells or 50.
The 'Amazon Law' Is The Signal To Sell Far Overpriced Amazon [View article]
Great article. AMZN stock price confounds me, particularly when there are ridiculously cheap, rapidly growing stocks out there http://seekingalpha.co...
Small Oil Stocks Surging - Time To Look Off The Beaten Path? [View article]
There have been a lot of scammy US listed Chinese stocks that have imploded. Its not obvious to me that LPH isn't going to implode in the future. I'd stick with oil companies active in domiciles that respect property rights, such as in the US, Canada, Australia, etc.
Royalty Trust Wealth Destruction And Opportunity [View article]
That's right, 3 years, not two and a half. However, production is declining and hedges will run out at the end of 2012, so distributions could fall meaningfully in the meantime. It could actually pay out much less than $7, versus the current $17 unit price.
Halcon Resources: Why I Steer Clear Of The Current Staggering Valuation [View article]
I'm not sure you've fairly represented activity in the Utica. Companies have generally been trying to sell acreage in the gassy and oil windows and trying to buy in the condensate window. And companies like Gulfport recently bought substantial condensate window acreage.
Also, can you walk through your calculation of Halcon's enterprise value? And how much current production they are generating?
That being said, Halcon does seem overvalued compared to other oil companies out there.
The disclosure here isn't correct. I have a small position in ATPG, and I or the fund that I advise may buy or sell ATPG or related securities at any time without further notice.
My Best Investment Advice: Watch Your Fellow Investors And Do The Opposite [View article]
Great article. I enjoyed the well written argument for contrarian investing. I happen to think there is more value in under the radar small caps at this point, but investors should certainly do better in value priced large caps like MCD than in 10 year treasury bonds yielding below 1.5%.
Are These Energy Stocks in a Bubble? [View article]
Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) has 9 employees and a $1.6 Billion valuation. It is possible for a public oil company to be hugely successful with a small number of employees if it has the right business model and outsources sufficiently.
Sandridge Could Be Further Negatively Impacted By Poor Trust Well Performance [View article]
I do not own nor am I short any security mentioned in the article. As always, I reserve the right to buy or sell any security mentioned at any time. Seeking Alpha has a rigorous disclosure policy (as do the regulators!)
SandRidge Mississippian Trust II: More Risk, More Reward [View article]
I really enjoyed your PER writeup and think you captured the attractiveness of that investment. Unfortunately I don't think this analysis was quite as thorough nor was it as accurate.
Sandridge Could Be Further Negatively Impacted By Poor Trust Well Performance [View article]
The 'Amazon Law' Is The Signal To Sell Far Overpriced Amazon [View article]
Small Oil Stocks Surging - Time To Look Off The Beaten Path? [View article]
Royalty Trust Wealth Destruction And Opportunity [View article]
Halcon Resources: Why I Steer Clear Of The Current Staggering Valuation [View article]
Also, can you walk through your calculation of Halcon's enterprise value? And how much current production they are generating?
That being said, Halcon does seem overvalued compared to other oil companies out there.
Did The SandRidge Activist Investors Make A Big Mistake And Overvalue The Company? [View article]
There are far cheaper Mississippian companies out there than SD. And less levered. With more oily Mississippian...
Well Hedged, 9.44% Dividend Payer BreitBurn Energy Partners Is A Safe Haven [View article]
Why ATP Oil May Not Go Bankrupt [View article]
My Best Investment Advice: Watch Your Fellow Investors And Do The Opposite [View article]
Are These Energy Stocks in a Bubble? [View article]
Warren Resources; A Rare Deep Value E&P Opportunity [View article]
Chesapeake Sells Another Marcellus Package At Low Valuation: Transaction Analysis [View article]
Energy Operations Updates: Halcon And Gastar [View article]
Sandridge Could Be Further Negatively Impacted By Poor Trust Well Performance [View article]