Seeking Alpha

Josh Young

 
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  • Shale Math Coming Into Play Sooner Than Expected For Gastar Exploration [View article]
    I bought a portion of that offering, and like Ptolmey capital, I've been buying in the open market since then.

    Look into who Ptolmey capital is. I think your concern with corporate governance has been resolved going forward.
    Dec 6, 2013. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shale Math Coming Into Play Sooner Than Expected For Gastar Exploration [View article]
    Thanks. Still in it. Management in their last announcement basically said the next Hunton well will be really good too, and another massive result could further re-rate the stock.

    Take another look at AOK. Rapid production growth there...
    Dec 4, 2013. 10:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shale Math Coming Into Play Sooner Than Expected For Gastar Exploration [View article]
    Gastar generates IRRs of 38-70+% on its development capex - http://bit.ly/XZE48d
    Sep 18, 2013. 02:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shale Math Coming Into Play Sooner Than Expected For Gastar Exploration [View article]
    Valushka, thank you for the comment. Short answer - analysts have been raising their estimates for production and ebitda for Gastar for 2013 (and going forward). This is promising.

    Long answer:
    E&P valuations seem to be driven by a combination of net asset values, cash flows, and rates of return on invested capital. Ebitda is generally used by industry analysts rather than net income, as it better reflects the long-run value of an E&P business and its assets. Thus I watch for Ebitda rather than net income. And Gastar's production is rapidly ramping up, which combined with recent high oil prices is driving up analyst estimates of Ebitda...
    Sep 17, 2013. 10:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shale Math Coming Into Play Sooner Than Expected For Gastar Exploration [View article]
    I have no opinion on the options. Currently only own the common stock, although I'm definitely kicking myself for not buying $5 december calls at 5 cents a few months ago...
    Sep 17, 2013. 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shale Math Coming Into Play Sooner Than Expected For Gastar Exploration [View article]
    Slacker,

    Thank you for the comment and for following me / reading my articles. I have been very excited about the recent developments at Gastar, and I seem to be the only person writing about it and have been getting great feedback. The article before this one was about Niobrara focused companies and only mentioned Gastar because it was an interesting comparison, not the focus of the article - http://seekingalpha.co...

    The next article I'm writing is similar, focused on another investment of mine. I might mention Gastar in it too but Gastar will not be the focus of the article (at least, that is my current plan).
    Sep 17, 2013. 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Shale Math' Used For Rex And Goodrich Implies Massive Hunton Value For Gastar [View article]
    Thanks, I appreciate that, but its not over yet.

    Look at DTX.TO. I was following it two years ago, and when it doubled from 2 to 4 I thought it was over. It is now at 9, and some analysts are saying it could go to 15. GST is at 4...
    Sep 13, 2013. 07:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Shale Math' Used For Rex And Goodrich Implies Massive Hunton Value For Gastar [View article]
    J, he's been right so far, and seems to have a pretty good idea of private market valuations in the Marcellus at the moment. And his estimate seems to tie with valuations of other publicly traded Marcellus companies.
    Sep 13, 2013. 06:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Shale Math' Used For Rex And Goodrich Implies Massive Hunton Value For Gastar [View article]
    Data please? There are dozens of successful Hunton wells drilled in the past 2-3 years, and it appears more are on their way.
    Sep 13, 2013. 06:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Thing Goodrich And Rex Have That Gastar Does Not (Yet) [View article]
    The CEO of Gastar has a large portion of his net worth in Gastar stock and options. Unlike the management of Goodrich, he did not personally found the company so he does not own as much stock, but he is still very aligned with shareholders. At the current rate, despite his lower amounts of ownership of stock, he is on track to become more wealthy through his Gastar holdings (up ~400% so far this year).

    And while management ownership is a nice to have, the point of the article was something else entirely - the shareholder composition at Gastar is shifting, and could drive the share price up substantially as a result. The stock is currently under-owned by institutions.
    Sep 11, 2013. 10:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Side And Sell Side Think Gastar Is Worth $4.50-Plus Per Share [View article]
    It is not material non-public information - the case files are public, anyone can look up the claims. I just checked with the CEO to make sure I wasn't missing something obvious that had been publicly disclosed. It is helpful to get color in these kinds of situations, and Gastar's CEO is very good about only sharing already disclosed information.

    One example of success I've had investing on litigation outcomes is in Gastar, actually. I invested client money in a separately managed account at ~$1 per share based on legal due diligence indicating that Gastar was highly likely to win the case vs Chesapeake. I am disclosing this is purely for argument's sake, not for marketing or other purposes. I had several litigation attorneys who are friends of mine review the case files and opine on it (they thought it was one-sided and a couple actually bought Gastar stock themselves).

    Its always interesting to me when people who don't even identify themselves by name ask me for my background. Particularly because, since I was on the board of directors of a publicly traded company, my biography is public. From your picture you look to be a dog?
    Jul 28, 2013. 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Side And Sell Side Think Gastar Is Worth $4.50-Plus Per Share [View article]
    Southgent started question chain on the last article I wrote about Gastar as well that was tangential at best. This is along the same lines.

    It appears what he is trying to say is that insurance litigation is complicated and that it is hard to tell how much Gastar might actually be owed. Fortunately for Gastar and investors in Gastar stock, the matter has been brought to trial and it appears the question has not been size (~$25mm) but rather if Gastar is owed that money or not (appeals court says they are).
    Jul 28, 2013. 05:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Side And Sell Side Think Gastar Is Worth $4.50-Plus Per Share [View article]
    I checked with the CEO...

    And yes I understood your "argument". There is an unfortunate tendency among Seeking Alpha commentors to make up incredibly improbable scenarios and then repost them repeatedly as if they were relevant or likely. Gastar won, they were suing for reimbursement, Occam's razor (and the CEO and other analysts) say that the right number would approximate the damages + costs amount.
    Jul 28, 2013. 02:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Side And Sell Side Think Gastar Is Worth $4.50-Plus Per Share [View article]
    I checked with the CEO and other analysts prior to writing the article. My number is relevant, although the CEO declined to give an exact monetary figure, timeline or probability (basically, this is not 9-11 or some other out-of-left-field scenario, but the company can't comment on pending litigation settlements beyond confirming the level of coverage and potential recovery amount).

    To your first point about this not being in the news - it was definitely not in the news, that was my point in the previous article. It was probably not in the 10-k or 10-q because Gastar had lost the initial case and the appeal may have been seen as immaterial until the outcome was decided. Typically companies have much fuller disclosure about lawsuits where they are getting sued than where they are suing. Same reason for no press release - Gastar is not particularly promotional, I think they want to wait until there is a definitive amount and timeline. But in my opinion, investors should understand that Gastar won and there is a good chance the company ends up with $25 million extra cash in the near future.
    Jul 28, 2013. 01:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Side And Sell Side Think Gastar Is Worth $4.50-Plus Per Share [View article]
    The other two sell side analysts with price targets may not have raised theirs yet - the $4.50 one was only raised recently. Gastar used to be covered by many more analysts, and it seems likely that other firms will resume coverage or initiate coverage over time. In the meantime, the buy-side report is extremely well done, has a $4.70 price target, and the analyst has already been very right about Gastar so far this year, calling for it to exceed $2.50 when it was at ~$1 earlier this year.
    Jul 27, 2013. 06:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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