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Joshua Chin  

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  • Cameco Isn't Out Of The Woods Just Yet [View article]
    Depends on how you want to play it. If you want to be solely on price, look at uranium participation corp. If you want a "levered" play, you have a large company like cameco, or you can go to the junior miners such as URG and URZ. Finally you have a uranium etf which is a basket of various plays.
    Apr 20, 2015. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Angie's List Announces Planned Departure of William Oesterle Following 20 Years of Service to the Company [View article]
    Agreed. Not sure of why there is such a substantial "pop"
    Apr 15, 2015. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach Inc. Is A Compelling LBO Candidate [View article]
    Hey Jin,

    Thanks for your comment. If the turnaround goes as plans, which is what is financially modeled, the upside for shareholders would be approx 25% if you assume that it will start trading back at historic EV/EBITDA amounts (8x to a historic of 10x). So lets say ABC private equity firm proposes to shareholders today to buy out Coach for a 25-30% premium, I would argue that most shareholder's would take it. You see, your double digit returns are being materialized today without the potential risk of the turnaround not succeeding.

    Secondly, there is a difference in strategy if it were to go under an LBO. The company, Coach, would be levered with debt to magnify the gains of the private equity firm. This would be done via using FCF to pay off the debt.

    The amount of money being made would not be different whether private or public. What is different is how it is used, and how a return would be generated.
    Oct 7, 2014. 03:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: New B8 Chip To Start A PC Revolution [View article]
    Mr. Manness,

    Can you address how the A7 and/or the "B8" chip you speak of would compete with the Intel Broadwell chip? I don't claim to be anywhere close to a tech aficionado, but I think the extrapolation from "Snapdragon has Xghz of performance" therefore Apple must be able to achieve such performance is a little bit of a stretch. The reason I say this is that, from my preliminary research, it seems as though the intel broadwell chip provides a strong value proposition for Apple by increasing performance and increasing battery life in respects to the lineup of Macbooks. As such, it's hard to piece together this "PC revolution" from the basis of a "B8" chip. Don't get me wrong, I'm long AAPL, but they aren't sparking a revolution because of chip architecture.

    Sep 6, 2014. 12:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Base Scenario: Apple's Mobile Payment Service Generates $2 Billion In Revenue [View article]
    Great discussion, both Alex and TechEnthusiast! Time will tell, and I appreciate your response regarding the .18 transaction amount (taking your word on it ;) Keep up the writing and the follow up, it is what makes this forum different from others.

    Sep 5, 2014. 10:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead to license sofosbuvir to Indian drug makers [View news story]
    This isn't really news (if my memory serves me correctly). I thought they announced this $2k pricing a while ago?
    Sep 5, 2014. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Base Scenario: Apple's Mobile Payment Service Generates $2 Billion In Revenue [View article]

    First off, thank you for your consistent contributions that are of added value and truly insightful; much appreciated.

    However, one thing that I will strongly disagree with in your analysis is the ~$5 fee as well as the 400-450 million figure. I'll admit that I don't have a figure available to refute your $5 fee assumption, but I will say that it is hard to justify that Apple would be able to somehow pull off $5 per user. Lets just assume the payment model stays the same in regards to the 2% transaction fee (along with the two other charges mentioned in your article). Apple needs to be off significant added value (as well as most likely taking on an associated risk) in the process to garner the right to an x% of the transaction. Furthermore, along with Apple taking x%, it means someone in the current model takes that loss from their profits. I don't think NFC + SecureID does that. I think the security functionality is of added value, but so is the chip+pin system being rolled out in the states. Again, what happens will be seen in the coming months.

    The second estimate that I would disagree with is the 400-450 million users. It isn't that I disagree that the iPhone 6 (and 7?) will not be within this range, we need to proxy it for adoption rates from both retailers and user standpoints. Furthermore not the entire install base will actually be available to use this functionality. My inclination would be the US, Canada & EU initially. China is a big toss up because deals would need to be inked with i) retailers ii) banks iii) credit card issuers.

    So in conclusion; I've got no clue. I was going to write an article on this as I believe the payment is a huge x factor. But I'm just not sure how to quantify the $5 per user. Nonetheless, great article, insightful as usual. Keep it up.

    Sep 4, 2014. 09:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach: Why I'm Staying Bullish On Shares Of This Luxury Retailer [View article]
    In my opinion, approaching Coach from a comparable perspective for valuation purposes is not a good indicator of future price movement. Let me explain:

    1) Comparable Multiples to KORS and Ralph Lauren:
    Yes, in spite of Coach trading at a lower multiple, this doesn't indicate that it is undervalued. One needs to consider forward EPS sentiment and other growth prospects. There needs to be some sort of catalyst that will cause multiple expansion, and I personally believe for coach it can't just be that investors will realize how "cheap" it is.

    2) Coach is in the middle of a restructuring. If you listen to the analyst conference, it provides very good indication of management's plans going forward. It also include financial information that any investor should listen and be aware of. I'll briefly mention some here: Increase CAPEX through FY 2017 (~570M), Closing of 70 stores, increased spending to "optimize assets" in FY 2014-2015. This restructuring is designed to mostly cut costs, though there are some revenue growth tid bits in there. They are looking at annual savings of about ~150m

    3) Dividend. The question that many investors have had in mind is that given all the cashflow expenditures as noted in point 2, will there be some sort of debt issuance or equity issuance to continue the dividend. I've crunched the numbers and they should be able to internally cover all expenditures and still maintain the dividend. A high yield dividend doesn't really mean much if it isn't that yield going forward. That being said, a dividend cut may be needed if sales decrease by a greater % that management expects. It currently expects roughly a 6% decrease in sales this year.

    Investors who are in this from a fundamental perspective need to realize that the tangible effects of the restructuring would most likely be seen at the earliest in late 2016 and throughout 2017.
    Aug 3, 2014. 10:19 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple, IBM in far-reaching enterprise partnership [View news story]
    Well Played, well played Mr.Cook
    Jul 15, 2014. 04:56 PM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banco Santander, S.A. Tops International Bank Credit Default Swap Trading 2010 To 2014 [View article]
    I'm slightly confused as to how this pertains to SAN. I understand the overall conclusion that the thinly traded non-dealer counter party's makes for the CDS to be a potentially unreliable indicator; however, this is not SAN specific.

    Maybe you can shed some light for me how this is particularly related to the stock tagged in this article.

    Jul 10, 2014. 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Breathe Deeply, Embrace Tim Cook And Hold Until $120 [View article]

    I have much respect for you as you often provide added insight and value in your articles. One thing I will comment is that your "2nd win" situation isn't quite a win in my opinion. If traction is sub par for the iWatch, the material impact on getting people into the apple ecosystem would be minimal at best. Furthermore, the hype around the iWatch sets both investor and consumer expectation at a certain level.

    Other than that, keep it up.

    Jul 9, 2014. 03:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deutsche Bank trims GM price target [View news story]
    Just being transparent and managing expectations. There is nothing wrong with giving investors useful information to make a judgement on the company. Just for clarification, GM didn't say that the "stock might not do as well", it just guided to where it expects. What the stock does in relation to that is a whole different story.
    Jan 16, 2014. 08:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Bull Is Dead Wrong On Pandora [View article]
    No Pandora for the Cannucks my friend! Happy new year! (same with spotify as well). I'm short Pandora via puts
    Jan 1, 2014. 08:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wedge Partners offers cautious China Mobile iPhone estimates [View news story]
    IMO this adds to the fun and dangers of trading apple. Not one analyst or firm has had a consistent track record (not to their fault, AAPL is a complex and secretive company), so analyst reports are literally like tabloids. Full of rumours and gossip! Happy new year!
    Dec 30, 2013. 07:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorts piling into Tesla again [View news story]
    Hilarious! TSLA doing a retracement,
    Dec 26, 2013. 05:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment