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Joshua Hayes  

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  • Cree: Another Leading Stock in Trouble [View article]
    The chart got this one right. Remember, fundamental analysis is the most important thing when considering a long. When a stock tops, it is worthless. Charts are your only tell that a stock is topping. 80% of all buy decisions rely on fundamentals. 0% of sell signals rely on fundamentals. 130 years of history has proven that.

    Suggested reading:

    Jesse Livermore
    William J. O'Neil
    Gerald Loeb
    Richard Wyckoff
    Ed Seykota
    Nic Darvas
    Aug 18, 2011. 06:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Was That the Bottom? Beyond the Summer Crash of 2011 [View article]
    I have posted this before in another comment but it deserves to also be posted here:

    The market has been under distribution all year long and the distribution the last leg down over the past 9 days when the Nassy fell 17% was the highest volume over a nine-day period ever. Despite this fall bulls rose to 47% and bears fell to 23% this week on the Investors Intelligence survey (when bears outnumber bulls is when you see a market start to find a bottom). Leading stocks like NFLX BIDU AAPL GOOG PCLN AMZN from the bull market in 09-11 are now under selling pressure while the rest of the market has already broken apart with stocks under their 50 and 200 DMA's across the board. The two days we have rallied we have had lower volume than the day before. The big boys are not accumulating stocks here. The market may bounce but with June support now acting as resistance and the 50 and 200 DMA's about to death-cross on all indexes you can be sure that the proper play will to be short the rallies and not buy the dips for the intermediate term. Until we rally on strong accumulation following a lower volume sell off, there is no way this market is going to be able to move higher following this massive distribution. 130 years of history says those that believe this is "the bottom" are going to be in for a lot of pain on the short to intermediate term. There are some nice stocks out there with solid fundamentals and strong chart patterns, despite the selling: GOLD EXK AUQ DTLK MRGE QCOR IDCC
    Aug 14, 2011. 03:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Shares of GFN Corp. Could Double [View article]
    The stock doesn't even average 10,000 shares a day traded. No small trader/investor should ever invest their money in a stock that averages under 100,000 shares a day. The stock is too thin and too risky for almost all investors. No matter how strong the numbers are. Stick with high priced liquid leading stocks during market uptrends like AAPL AMZN GOOG PCLN NFLX CMG BIDU. Stocks like GFN might double (the fundies don't support this conclusion) but the volatility leading up to it is almost impossible for small investors to deal with.
    Aug 12, 2011. 07:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Stocks Beating Analyst Estimates [View article]
    DTLK not only has great fundamentals with future EPS estimates looking great but in this rough market it still has one of the nicest charts I have remaining in my long scans. Despite the market selloff, someone is clearly accumulating this stock. When the market rights its ship in the future, this stock based on the numbers should have some momentum.
    Aug 11, 2011. 10:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Tech Stocks With Strong Cash Coverage and Insider Buying [View article]
    MRGE is under a ton of accumulation despite the market downturn. It is one of about 5 charts that remain in my scans that are still considered "nice." Great future for this company ahead.
    Aug 11, 2011. 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX Suggests Investors Don't Believe Today's Rally Is Sustainable [View article]
    The market has been under distribution all year long and the distribution the last leg down over the past 9 days when the Nassy fell 17% was the highest volume over a nine-day period ever. Despite this fall bulls rose to 47% and bears fell to 23% this week on the Investors Intelligence survey (when bears outnumber bulls is when you see a market start to find a bottom). Leading stocks like NFLX BIDU AAPL GOOG PCLN AMZN from the bull market in 09-11 are now under selling pressure while the rest of the market has already broken apart with stocks under their 50 and 200 DMA's across the board. The two days we have rallied we have had lower volume than the day before. The big boys are not accumulating stocks here. The market may bounce but with June support now acting as resistance and the 50 and 200 DMA's about to death-cross on all indexes you can be sure that the proper play will to be short the rallies and not buy the dips for the intermediate term. Until we rally on strong accumulation following a lower volume sell off, there is no way this market is going to be able to move higher following this massive distribution. 130 years of history says those that believe this is "the bottom" are going to be in for a lot of pain on the short to intermediate term. There are some nice stocks out there with solid fundamentals and strong chart patterns, despite the selling: GOLD EXK AUQ DTLK MRGE QCOR IDCC
    Aug 11, 2011. 10:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time to Short Stocks? [View article]
    The market has been under distribution all year long and the distribution the last leg down over the past 9 days when the Nassy fell 17% was the highest volume over a nine-day period ever. Despite this fall bulls rose to 47% and bears fell to 23% this week on the Investors Intelligence survey (when bears outnumber bulls is when you see a market start to find a bottom). Leading stocks like NFLX BIDU AAPL GOOG PCLN AMZN from the bull market in 09-11 are now under selling pressure while the rest of the market has already broken apart with stocks under their 50 and 200 DMA's across the board. The two days we have rallied we have had lower volume than the day before. The big boys are not accumulating stocks here. The market may bounce but with June support now acting as resistance and the 50 and 200 DMA's about to death-cross on all indexes you can be sure that the proper play will to be short the rallies and not buy the dips for the intermediate term. Until we rally on strong accumulation following a lower volume sell off, there is no way this market is going to be able to move higher following this massive distribution. 130 years of history says those that believe this is "the bottom" are going to be in for a lot of pain on the short to intermediate term. There are some nice stocks out there with solid fundamentals and strong chart patterns, despite the selling: GOLD EXK AUQ DTLK MRGE QCOR IDCC.
    Aug 11, 2011. 10:15 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Macy's and Kohl's Report Solid Earnings [View article]
    Both stocks are under distribution, obviously, as this market breaks down. KSS chart is much more disturbing than M as it is already under a death-cross with very heavy resistance levels. M will follow this lead if it can not reclaim the 200 DMA in the near term. Even then it will have a tough time rallying in the upcoming macro environment. Only fundamentally strong stocks with nice charts right now QCOR GOLD DTLK MRGE AUQ. The accumulation in MRGE during this down market is beyond impressive.
    Aug 11, 2011. 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • “Our view continues that we’re in a long-term bull market, and in long-term bull markets you have downdrafts,” says Laszlo Birinyi. According to his research, the average S&P 500 correction is around 13%, and while the drop this week "surprised" him, he says he's not too worried about the decline.  [View news story]
    This guy should take a look at the data and charts.

    insider selling all-time high to buying 13.1 to 1 on NYSE AMEX

    % bulls in investors intelligence survey at 46%

    market indexes under severely heavy distribution

    mutual fund cash level is at 3%

    GDP back under 2% signaling 6 of past 7 recessions

    ....yeah sure...I wan to buy this tape. I'll keep holding my shorts for a bit longer I think.
    Aug 4, 2011. 08:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Dirt Cheap Stocks Reporting Earnings Soon [View article]
    cheap and dirt cheap get cheaper in bear markets. this is a bear market. definitely not a time to be buying "cheap" stocks.
    Aug 3, 2011. 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Frustrates the Majority [View article]
    The biggest tell to me we are about to have a serious correction is the % of stocks below the 200 DMA vs. the Nasdaq. We have the same nasty negative divergence now that we saw during the 2000 and 2007 tops. History repeating itself again.
    Jul 29, 2011. 02:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Travelzoo Crushed on Earnings Miss [View article]
    The distribution in the daily/weekly chart of TZOO since April is massive. This stock is not going to be back on any growth investors radar for a very long time as this chart is beyond fugly.
    Jul 21, 2011. 01:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zillow Continues the Trend of Nonsense Valuations for Internet Stocks [View article]
    I am sure these stocks will do just as well as those internet companies I remember back in 1999 did. The nonsense tape of 2011 continues.
    Jul 21, 2011. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons to Avoid Shorting Growth Stocks [View article]
    OK, well then I will short AAPL because its chart is under some extreme distribution and it is rolling over and breaking down. When it starts to find a bottom I will cover and move on.

    Also, going short growth stocks in a market that is trending up is always stupid. Don't ever fight the market. Right now, the market is going from a two year bull market into a new bear market. Now, you look for shorts. Not during the uptrend. Leaders are breaking down everywhere only NFLX CRM CMG are holding up. You short the leaders breaking down GOOG PCLN BIDU AAPL. You wait till NFLX CRM CMG start breaking down on the charts before you go short. Fundamentals are important when going long. But fundamentals are ALWAYS the best when a stock tops. Just 130 years of history. :)
    Jun 24, 2011. 07:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • And There Goes the Bailout Rally [View article]
    Too true. I've been doing this full time for 16 years and the action I have seen in 2011 indicates to me some major pain is on the way. The fakeouts are literally out of this world in this tape. There is no trending. Only chopfest.
    Jun 1, 2011. 05:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
362 Comments
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