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Joshua Hayes
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Joshua "MauiTrader" Hayes is CEO, President and founder of Big Wave Trading Inc., a Maui, Hawaii-based stock market advisory service. Hayes is a well-respected stock trader who combines fundamentals, technicals, psychology and money management to trade professionally for his personal,... More
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Big Wave Trading
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Big Wave Trading
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  • The Rally Everyone Will Try To Fade Takes A Rest

    A day after the non-Taper rate decision released by the FOMC US stocks take a break. One exception is the NASDAQ finishing higher by 5.7 points. Every other index pulled in nicely as volume fell across the board. This is the type of day when you don't see a follow-through on gains. Tomorrow's option expiry will distort volume for tomorrow and Monday so today's move in the context of this rally is okay in our book. Jobless claims came in better than expected, but were unable to repeat last week coming in below 300,000. A lift into the close was an added bonus to an overall decent day.

    Just as important as the overall market health is the moves we are seeing in some of our leaders. Stocks like TSLA and FB are quite nice to see. You'll see the market's leaders push higher despite the overall market pulling in. YY was another market leader hitting another 52 week high. Many will be scared buying 52 week highs as they have been trained to buy low and sell high. Ideally, you get a long signal you want to sell higher. You can buy high and sell even higher. A few of our leaders are demonstrating just that. We are stuffed to the gills with longs and we continue to see more and more signals headed our way. It is very difficult to believe we should be shorting into this type of market.

    Over in sentiment land we have the bulls coming in strong, but not an extreme level. AAII bulls remained at 45.11% and bears coming in at 29.70 an uptick from last week. We continue to see this from sentiment where bulls and bears are simply not hitting extremes where a potential top may be. All of our price signals are telling us to remain bullish on this market. Even the NAAIM Manager survey showed the number of bullish bets being made dropped 4 points to 62%. This rally will continue to be hated simply because the Fed is artificially keeping it a float. Have an exit plan, but not one based upon your opinion of what "might" happen. Rather used facts, more importantly price!

    Tomorrow is a new day and one that we'll see options expiry play havoc with volume. Follow your stocks and your signals and the rest will be just noise to you! Have a great weekend.

    Disclosure: I am long FB, TSLA, YY, GRPN.

    Tags: TSLA, FB, YY, GRPN, QQQ, DIA, SPY, IWM
    Sep 19 11:01 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

    Aloha everyone. The Big Wave Trading Portfolio is under a BUY condition across the board in all major market indexes as all average have retaken the 50 day moving average and have done so on above average volume (minus the DJIA). Along with this, leading stocks across many leading sectors continue to breakout and build on the gains post-breakout.

    As long as this condition continues, we will remain heavily to fully invested and ride the trend higher. As it appears, underneath, many individual stocks are building extremely well-formed and sound technical patterns that can lead to explosive price moves higher. This, of course, goes along with all the leading stocks already hitting new highs.

    Overall, there is very little pressure on our model against our BUY signal. Still, we are always prepared for any black swan event and remind everyone that if we begin to reverse, we will take profits and cut losses where necessary and build hedges in leveraged inverse ETF or leveraged short ETF positions.

    For now, stocks look extremely bullish based on their current fundamentals and technical conditions. Until this changes, we do not suggest trying to top call or fight this trend or the Fed. The macro and micro environment look very positive. Don't let cognitive biases blind you to the reality of the tape. The tape is extremely strong and very profitable.

    Aloha everyone. Have an absolutely wonderful upcoming profitable week.

    TOP CURRENT HOLDINGS - PERCENT GAIN - DATE OF SIGNAL

    CAMP long - 204% - 4/26/12
    WAGE long - 164% - 1/8/13
    FLT long - 141% - 9/6/12
    POWR long - 117% - 12/11/12
    INSM long - 115% - 4/19/13
    HEES long - 109% - 9/4/12
    ADUS long - 102% - 4/22/13
    MEI long - 93% - 4/10/13
    TRLA long - 57% - 6/28/13
    LGF long - 56% - 4/19/13
    GMCR long - 50% - 4/23/13
    CHUY long - 47% - 1/10/13
    V long - 47% - 8/31/12
    WDC long - 46% - 1/9/13
    ADS long - 42% - 12/11/12
    WST long - 41% - 1/22/13
    OCN long - 39% - 5/8/13
    LOCK long - 38% - 5/20/13
    VIPS long - 32% - 7/17/13

    DDD long - 32% - 4/30/13

    Disclosure: I am long ADUS, V, MEI, CAMP, INSM, TRLA, LGF, LOCK, BERY, CHUY, HEES, DDD, OCN, GMCR, CCF, WST, FLT, POWR, ADS, WAGE, BEAV, GLL, WDC, VIPS.

    Sep 16 7:06 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

    Aloha everyone. The Big Wave Trading model is in a mixed variety of signals, with the Nasdaq currently under a BUY signal, the SP500 and Russell 2000 are under a NEUTRAL signal, and the DJIA is under a SELL signal. It is not too often you will see us under all three signals at once but here we are.

    Overall, the market does have the "feel" of a market that is ready to launch higher. The reasoning behind this is our analysis of leading stocks, leading industry groups, speculative stocks, and the technical condition of the overall market. Right now, things look really good for a continuation in prices in the uptrending direction.

    We are basically fully invested here, with only a small hedge working in the SDOW. This position will be closed out, obviously, if we switch back to a NEUTRAL or BUY signal in the Dow. We are not fully invested based on what we believe or think the market will do. We are fully invested because so many leading stocks have triggered legitimate buy signals that we have utilized all our capital. Do you know what year it was the last time I was all out of cash to deploy in the market? 2003. So the thinking is that based on past analysis the rest of the year should be solid.

    Still, do you think we will not sell EVERYTHING if the market tells us to? You know we will. If the market reverses, sell limits or hit, or our big winners reverse on huge volume, trust me we will not waste any time running to the exits and reversing our positions to the short side via leveraged ETFs. At Big Wave Trading the most important thing is to be prepared for everything. Nothing in life is ever guaranteed. Shock events and black swans show up all the time.

    However, we would like to point out a correlation between the current market and that 2003 market that remains my best trading period ever in my life. In 2003 we went into Iraq. Now it is 2013 and we are going into Syria. Is history repeating itself again? Probably not. But it sure is rhyming.

    Have a wonderful upcoming week. I wish you all the best. Aloha from Maui.

    TOP CURRENT HOLDINGS - PERCENT GAIN - DATE OF SIGNAL

    CAMP long - 202% - 4/26/12
    WAGE long - 145% - 1/8/13
    FLT long - 132% - 9/6/12
    POWR long - 123% - 12/11/12
    HEES long - 103% - 9/4/12
    INSM long - 102% - 4/19/13
    MEI long - 92% - 4/10/13
    ADUS long - 81% - 4/22/13
    LGF long - 54% - 4/19/13
    WDC long - 48% - 1/9/13
    GMCR long - 46% - 4/23/13
    CHUY long - 42% - 1/10/13
    TRLA long - 38% - 6/28/13
    V long - 37% - 8/31/12
    ADS long - 37% - 12/11/12
    OCN long - 37% - 5/8/13
    DDD long - 35% - 4/30/13
    CCF long - 34% - 6/28/13
    WST long - 34% - 1/22/13
    LOCK long - 33% - 5/20/13
    BEAV long - 31% - 3/5/13

    Disclosure: I am long BEAV, LOCK, WST, CCF, DDD, OCN, ADS, V, TRLA, CHUY, GMCR, WDC, LGF, ADUS, MEI, INSM, HEES, POWR, FLT, WAGE, CAMP.

    Tags: BEAV, LOCK, WST, CCF, DDD, OCN, ADS, V, TRLA, CHUY, GMCR, WDC, LGF, ADUS, MEI, INSM, HEES, POWR, FLT, WAGE, CAMP
    Sep 09 2:03 AM | Link | Comment!
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