Joshua Hayes'  Instablog

The morning did not get off to a great start with disappointing economic data hitting the market. Weak jobless claims and a Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed how disappointing the economy continues to be. By mid-day it appeared the market simply didn't care too much about the weak economic data. Just as new highs were being reached sellers took to the market pushing the market to the lows of the session. While the market didn't close on the lows there was certainly a feeling this could turn into something more sinister. One day doesn't change the market and this uptrend remains in place.

Last night we showed you how bullish the II survey respondents have become and today we got a read on the AAII and NAAIM. Neither survey was at an extreme in either direction. AAII survey bulls were less 40% and bears under 30%. NAAIM survey showed investment managers positioned bullishly at 84% with bears almost non-existent. Neutral appears to be the place to be in both surveys. Outside of the II survey there isn't any evidence of exuberance from market participants. Now, CNBC guests are another story including their hosts. Stick with price.

TSLA this morning offered a nice place for the second time in three days to take some profits. The stock may be topping in the near term. We certainly aren't going to call a top in the stock, but after this kind of run it is prudent to lock in gains. No one knows where TSLA will end up in the long run, but how many cars have Consumer Reports given a 99 rating to? If you get a chance to see the Model S or Roadster they are good looking cars.

There are a few Fed officials who have expressed the central bank will need to begin to taper its purchases of mortgage and treasury securities. Should they or shouldn't they really isn't much of a concern for us as we simply follow our pricing signals. Guessing on the direction of the market isn't a sound strategy. Stick with Big Wave Trading to navigate the market waters.

Have a great weekend.

A better than expected seasonally adjusted retail sales figure helped push futures off their lows prior to the market open. Volume was lower on the session staying true to form as far as MondA better than expected seasonally adjusted retail sales figure helped push futures off their lows prior to the market open. Volume was lower on the session staying true to form as far as Monday trading sessions go. The market did not get the benefit of POMO today, but tomorrow we'll get up to 3 billion in fresh new money entering the market. This market has been relentless and today was simply another example of how powerful uptrends are. Leading stocks continue to power higher and we'll look for this to continue.

Mondays have not been kind to this market uptrend. Tuesday's have been the best day and with 3 billion of fresh new money it wouldn't surprise us to see another positive close for Tuesday. The only day of the week showing negative gains has been Monday. It was no surprise to see the mixed close where the NASDAQ barely posted gains and the Dow to end in negative territory. Unless a catastrophic event happens prior to tomorrow the trend has been for Tuesday to end positive and we'll expect it to close positive.

Does it matter when or if the Federal Reserve ends Quantitative Easing? It is a great question and one many will be trying to answer. Are you smart enough to figure out when it will happen? Or will you be like a 5 year old in a two hour car ride asking "are we there yet?" The reason why we'll succeed is because we have a process using price signals. Taking advantage of natural price movements regardless of what our opinion may or may not be gives us an edge. What if the Fed never ends QE are you going to be taking advantage? Does endless QE even guarantee higher equity prices? Sure you may have the answers, but will the market prove you right? Stick with Big Wave Trading and you'll navigate these waves with ease.

Make it a great week. Cut losses short and ride your winners.A better than expected seasonally adjusted retail sales figure helped push futures off their lows prior to the market open. Volume was lower on the session staying true to form as far as Monday trading sessions go. The market did not get the benefit of POMO today, but tomorrow we'll get up to 3 billion in fresh new money entering the market. This market has been relentless and today was simply another example of how powerful uptrends are. Leading stocks continue to power higher and we'll look for this to continue.

Mondays have not been kind to this market uptrend. Tuesday's have been the best day and with 3 billion of fresh new money it wouldn't surprise us to see another positive close for Tuesday. The only day of the week showing negative gains has been Monday. It was no surprise to see the mixed close where the NASDAQ barely posted gains and the Dow to end in negative territory. Unless a catastrophic event happens prior to tomorrow the trend has been for Tuesday to end positive and we'll expect it to close positive.

Does it matter when or if the Federal Reserve ends Quantitative Easing? It is a great question and one many will be trying to answer. Are you smart enough to figure out when it will happen? Or will you be like a 5 year old in a two hour car ride asking "are we there yet?" The reason why we'll succeed is because we have a process using price signals. Taking advantage of natural price movements regardless of what our opinion may or may not be gives us an edge. What if the Fed never ends QE are you going to be taking advantage? Does endless QE even guarantee higher equity prices? Sure you may have the answers, but will the market prove you right? Stick with Big Wave Trading and you'll navigate these waves with ease.

Make it a great week. Cut losses short and ride your winners.A better than expected seasonally adjusted retail sales figure helped push futures off their lows prior to the market open. Volume was lower on the session staying true to form as far as Monday trading sessions go. The market did not get the benefit of POMO today, but tomorrow we'll get up to 3 billion in fresh new money entering the market. This market has been relentless and today was simply another example of how powerful uptrends are. Leading stocks continue to power higher and we'll look for this to continue.

Mondays have not been kind to this market uptrend. Tuesday's have been the best day and with 3 billion of fresh new money it wouldn't surprise us to see another positive close for Tuesday. The only day of the week showing negative gains has been Monday. It was no surprise to see the mixed close where the NASDAQ barely posted gains and the Dow to end in negative territory. Unless a catastrophic event happens prior to tomorrow the trend has been for Tuesday to end positive and we'll expect it to close positive.

Does it matter when or if the Federal Reserve ends Quantitative Easing? It is a great question and one many will be trying to answer. Are you smart enough to figure out when it will happen? Or will you be like a 5 year old in a two hour car ride asking "are we there yet?" The reason why we'll succeed is because we have a process using price signals. Taking advantage of natural price movements regardless of what our opinion may or may not be gives us an edge. What if the Fed never ends QE are you going to be taking advantage? Does endless QE even guarantee higher equity prices? Sure you may have the answers, but will the market prove you right? Stick with Big Wave Trading and you'll navigate these waves with ease.

Make it a great week. Cut losses short and ride your winners.ay trading sessions go. The market did not get the benefit of POMO today, but tomorrow we'll get up to 3 billion in fresh new money entering the market. This market has been relentless and today was simply another example of how powerful uptrends are. Leading stocks continue to power higher and we'll look for this to continue.

Mondays have not been kind to this market uptrend. Tuesday's have been the best day and with 3 billion of fresh new money it wouldn't surprise us to see another positive close for Tuesday. The only day of the week showing negative gains has been Monday. It was no surprise to see the mixed close where the NASDAQ barely posted gains and the Dow to end in negative territory. Unless a catastrophic event happens prior to tomorrow the trend has been for Tuesday to end positive and we'll expect it to close positive.

Does it matter when or if the Federal Reserve ends Quantitative Easing? It is a great question and one many will be trying to answer. Are you smart enough to figure out when it will happen? Or will you be like a 5 year old in a two hour car ride asking "are we there yet?" The reason why we'll succeed is because we have a process using price signals. Taking advantage of natural price movements regardless of what our opinion may or may not be gives us an edge. What if the Fed never ends QE are you going to be taking advantage? Does endless QE even guarantee higher equity prices? Sure you may have the answers, but will the market prove you right? Stick with Big Wave Trading and you'll navigate these waves with ease.

Make it a great week. Cut losses short and ride your winners.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

The Dow closed higher on Tuesday for the 18th straight week moving higher by more than 100 points. Leading the market higher was the Russell 2000 jumping more than 1.25%. S&P 500 gained more than 1% while the NASDAQ lagged finishing higher by .69%. Surprisingly the VIX jumped more than 1.75% outpacing the S&P 500. Is a big point move coming? AAPL was hit hard during the trading session sending the NASDAQ lower and ultimately keeping the NASDAQ from bigger gains. Despite the AAPL sell off the NASDAQ found support along with the rest of the market pushing up into the highs of the session. Another bullish session for the market reminding those who are fighting the trend is very dangerous.

Financials were a hot sector today led by BAC, GS, and JPM. These stocks have been lagging the general market since March. A positive sign for this uptrend would be to have financials participate. GS breakout is solid with volume following price something we haven't seen very much from this market. Many will look to find the catalyst for the moves, but in the end does it really matter? No, all that matters is that you take the signal and ride the move higher.

Volume pushed higher today and it was above average. We haven't seen volume on new highs in quite some time and above average to boot. Low volume new highs have been a staple for this market and today was just a break from the norm. We don't have any evidence today is a top in the market and given what we saw from Financials today we should continue to push higher. We can think of plenty of reasons for volume like we are beginning to see panic buying. However, until we see real signs of a market top we aren't going to begin fishing for reasons.

One thing that will be interesting to watch will be JGB - Japanese Government Bonds and how their yields move over the course of the summer. The US 10 year treasury has moved roughly 30 basis points from their lows. A big move in yields will have adverse effects on debt servicing costs. Something to keep an eye on as time moves forward. Rising yields are not good for those who have a heavy debt load.

Until this trend ends we are going to stick with it.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.