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Joshua Hayes
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Joshua "MauiTrader" Hayes is CEO, President and founder of Big Wave Trading Inc., a Maui, Hawaii-based stock market advisory service. Hayes is a well-respected stock trader who combines fundamentals, technicals, psychology and money management to trade professionally for his personal,... More
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  • AAPL Jumps On Icahn News; Lifts Markets

    A less than stellar retail sales report couldn't keep the market down today. Volume jumped over Monday's super light trading volume. It isn't a surprise to see Tuesday volume higher than Monday, but nice to see where the market reverses its early morning losses. The story today was Icahn announcing his position in AAPL. Begs the question, didn't Ackman do the same thing with his HLF? And the reason Icahn went long HLF? Certainly doesn't matter to us, but seeing hypocrisy in this world isn't very hard to find. At the end of the day the push in AAPL gave a big boost to the NASDAQ. Another solid day for the market and our uptrend and we are going to continue to stick with the trend.

    It is truly amazing to continue to see people fight this trend we have been in since November 16th. Sure, at the end of 2012 the market was shaky. Had you paid attention to leading stocks you would have likely ignored the noise coming from the Fiscal Cliff discussions. While DC may not have solved all the issues it was enough to help propel this market to new highs set recently. The moral of the story is to stay with price and forget everything else.

    At the moment it appears the market is digesting July's gains quite well. Yes, we do have some distribution in the market. However, the distribution days are far from being devastating. On the flip side we continue to see leading stocks acting strong. In what kind of market would you have leading stocks acting weak? One nearing a correction is this answer. This may change over the course of days or weeks, but what we have now is a normal uptrend. Stick with the trend and Big Wave Trading.

    Obey the cardinal rule of cutting losses and riding your winners.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Aug 14 1:05 AM | Link | Comment!
  • NASDAQ Books Gains In Quiet Session

    The dog days of summer hit the market with volume dropping to the lowest levels since early July. Early morning lows were met with buyers, but for the S&P 500 and the Dow couldn't muster gains. Over at the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 were able to grab gains. Not much in the way of economic data to get the market to dive one way or another. Our uptrend remains despite the number of distribution on the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. While it is easy to make excuses and say we should be cautious, but there isn't a way to know whether or not we have topped. We will continue to push forward and use price as our guide.

    Market leaders continue to act well in this market environment. It is nice to see market leaders continue to hold up well despite the number of distribution days we see. Sure, next month we'll see a confluence of events that may or may not trip up this market. However, we aren't there yet and guessing how the market will react to any kind of event is a fools' game. We have price and what we know at this point in time is this market does not want to go down. If we do see major cracks in market leaders and further major distribution we'll change our tune. Until then we'll continue to push forward.

    There are plenty of people writing and bloviating about what will happen with the Fed through the end of this year. Will Big Ben taper or not? Is the next Fed chairman Yellen or Summers? We can debate how Fed policy has completely destroyed the cost of savings devastating those living off interest including pension funds. However, this is simply policy debate and should not be mixed with trading the markets. It doesn't matter to use if the Fed will taper or if the next Fed chairman is Yellen or Summers. We'll stick with price and leave the rest of the nonsense to others.

    Cut those losses short and ride your winners!

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Aug 13 11:33 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Stocks Find Strength At The Morning Lows Closed Just Off The Highs Of The Session

    After the recent bout with selling the market was able to find buyers pushing the market higher as volume swelled. Whether or not it was managers trying to get in their trades prior to leaving the Hamptons or Shore doesn't really matter. Expanding volume as price moves higher is generally a good thing. Just after 10:30 AM EDT it appeared as if sellers were winning the day and would extend the trading losses. However, the market was able to find buyers willing to step up and scoop up shares. We did not hit new highs today, but the action was certainly bullish enough to suggest we may have another new high. Stick with the trend.

    Sentiment indicators crept towards the bullish tint, but not in huge waves. AAII Bull increased to 39.5% from 34.62% last week. Bears jumped too from 25% to 26.65%. Clearly more of the crowd edged towards a bullish stance week over week. However, we aren't seeing extremes where Bulls exceed 50% and bears are well under 20%. NAAIM sentiment survey showed rose slightly from 74% to 75% invested. This move doesn't exactly scream over exuberance from money managers putting money to work. Again, price action certainly hasn't suggested we are at a top and even sentiment hasn't suggested we've hit one either.

    Market leaders continue to act well in this environment despite a few mishaps with earnings: GMCR and SCTY. Even GMCR which reacted poorly to stop didn't end the session in terrible fashion. TSLA performed well after earnings and continues to be a leader. PCLN reported today and is jumping nicely in after-hours trading at the moment. If you stick with market leaders and stay disciplined you can reach outsized gains. It takes following the methodology and not making reckless decisions.

    Many will still try and call a market top here. They may be right about this market and we'll go lower. However, what we know right now is we remain in an uptrend and we are going to stick by our process. There is no need to be a hero and turn into a zero. Longevity is the name of the game and we are here to build long-term success. Have a great weekend.

    Aug 09 12:52 AM | Link | Comment!
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