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Joshua Hayes
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Joshua "MauiTrader" Hayes is CEO, President and founder of Big Wave Trading Inc., a Maui, Hawaii-based stock market advisory service. Hayes is a well-respected stock trader who combines fundamentals, technicals, psychology and money management to trade professionally for his personal,... More
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  • Stocks Close In The Red; Volume Ends Mixed

    Continuing with the summer trade the market closed lower lead by the Russell 2000. The NASDAQ posted back to back losses while the S&P 500 losing streak extended to 3 days. We did see a nice rally off the lows, but as soon as the rally began volume was sucked out of the market suggesting sellers left the building. NASDAQ volume did end the day higher notching another distribution day for the index. However, given the move off the lows it wasn't a terrible distribution day. Many are blaming "The Taper" for stocks selling off. Perhaps the reason is the taper, but we aren't picking up what the pundits are putting down. Our uptrend remains and we continue to monitor our positions and their respective price action.

    Solar stocks took a hit after earnings out of FSLR weren't warmly greeted by the market. Homebuilders once again were to the downside with the entire group showing very negative price action. Given the market is in an uptrend shorting stocks is a fools game. The reason to highlight homebuilders is very simple. They were leading the market higher and now have rolled over. Financials are the only group showing strong earnings growth at the moment and if this group rolls over we'll take notice.

    Earnings continue to pour in and we continue to monitor for earnings gaps. Quite a few stocks are running ahead of earnings making it quite difficult to buy with them being extended. We need sound patterns to make use of earnings. We aren't about to gamble our capital going outside our process. Stick with the plan and execute. No need to be a hero in this market.

    Tomorrow we'll get another week's worth of job data from Initial Jobless Claims. Hard to believe this number used to be meaningless. It's not hard to believe given the financial media's need to fill the airwaves. You do not get an advantage by gaming initial jobless claims. It would be wise to avoid that type of trading.

    In after-hours trading TSLA turned heads again with its stock nearly up 10%. GRPN is another stock moving higher. SCTY and GMCR aren't so lucky. Ride your winners hard and dump your losers.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Aug 08 8:40 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Stocks Pull Back In Fast Trade

    Let the top calling begin as the stocks pull back in heavier volume. Today's pull back wasn't too severe and part of a normal reaction to the market hitting new highs. What we'll want to avoid seeing for this uptrend to fail is a string of distribution days strung together. At this point, we really do not have enough evidence to suggest "calling a top" here is justified. Although, it will not stop folks from trying to be a hero and call a stock market top. Our process does not include calling market tops, but one that relies on price action giving us a high probability entries and exits. Until such time we get enough price evidence we'll stick with this uptrend.

    We aren't trying to be heroes in this market. Many tried to be in May when we had the nasty high volume reversal on the 22nd. May's high did market a short-term top, but it wasn't a major market top like many are hoping for. Even a 10% decline from previous highs wouldn't signify a big market top. Do not get wrapped up in the hype of where the market is going or where it has been. All we know is what we have now and trying to guess what will be will only lead down a path of pain.

    For the most part many leaders pulled back in normal fashion. Not much to worry about from that angle at this point in time. Distribution days are a part of EVERY market uptrend and are expected. The S&P 500 has 4 distribution days, but today is the only one where it was on the real negative side. If this market has topped we'll get a few more distribution days and they will be more severe today. This is what we'll be looking for and will adjust accordingly.

    The most important thing to remember in this market is to follow your investment process. Deviating from your plan by going rogue or being a hero will destroy your trading. Cut your losses.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Aug 07 12:41 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

    The Big Wave Trading Market Model remains under a BUY signal with zero pressure weighing on it. With the indexes hitting all-time highs and leading stocks leading the way higher, everything is aligned for further potential price appreciation in all asset classes.

    Stocks continue to trend higher and while it would have been very nice to see the market consolidate gains this summer allowing the 200 day moving average to catch up with price it is not in the cards. Still, there is no reason to complain that stocks are continuing to move higher as we are well positioned here. Still, it would be nice to see stocks consolidate these gains and get that 200 day moving average closer to price. With the market so extended from this line, making new investments here is a very risky proposition. If you are not already long, it is going to be very hard to play catch up.

    However, playing catch up has indeed been very possible as earnings season is allowing plenty of opportunities to play catch up with leading stocks producing some nice gains following earnings and after those earnings. The buyable gap ups have worked very well the past two weeks. The best play, for our intraday chat room members, by far, has been buying calls or straddling/strangling stocks with strong EPS/sales growth that are heavily shorted. Recent straddles in FB and QCOR has made one or our members very wealthy and with earnings season still in full swing there should be other opportunities in the upcoming couple of weeks.

    If you are not playing the calls, straddles, or strangles and are not buying the buyable gap ups, it has been a rough go for EOD trading signals. Recent signals on the long side have not performed as well the past two weeks as I would like to see in an uptrending tape. However, most signals are not of the high quality standard that previous signals were due to the fact that this market has been well extended past its upper regression line and 200 day moving average for a while now. This is why recent signals have been weak and why we have kept them small relative to more recent signals.

    Still, it is a strong tape and many more signals are sure to present themselves as we move along. As long as the trend trends higher, there is no reason to top call this QE tape. Set your buy stops in leading stocks and get long at the pivot points, straddle the heavily shorted leading stocks, or buy the buyable gap ups. These trades have been doing very well in this most recent move higher. Buying stocks on an EOD basis following a powerful breakout is still not seeing the follow through that we became accustomed to from 1996-2008. So keep that in mind as if we continue to move higher from here.

    While a nice consolidation allowing the 200 DMA would be nice to see it is what it is and this trend is strong. Don't fight the tape and whatever you do NEVER top call a strong market. One day, this market will go climatic or parabolic, leading stocks will too, and lower highs and lower lows will be set in leading stocks in leading industries. That is when you need to be on the lookout for a top. Until then, ride the trend which is your friend higher.

    Have a great rest of your weekend and I wish you the best during the upcoming week. Aloha from a very beautiful west side of Maui. Aloha!!!

    Top Current Holdings - Percent Gain since Signal - Signal Date

    CAMP long - 178% - 4/26/12
    POWR long - 149% - 12/11/12
    RVLT long - 133% - 3/26/13
    FLT long - 121% - 9/6/12
    WAGE long - 95% - 1/8/13
    HEES long - 94% - 9/4/12
    CSU long - 88% - 9/4/12
    ADUS long - 74% - 4/22/13
    CHUY long - 57% - 1/10/13
    SBGI long - 54% - 3/22/13
    TECUA long - 49% - 2/5/13
    WDC long - 48% - 1/9/13
    INSM long - 48% - 4/19/13
    V long - 43% - 8/31/12
    LGF long - 42% - 4/19/13
    TRLA long - 42% - 6/28/13
    GLL long - 40% - 2/14/13
    ADS long - 40% - 12/11/12
    MEI long - 38% - 4/10/13
    OCN long - 28% - 5/8/13

    DDD long - 25% - 4/30/13


    Aug 04 7:12 PM | Link | Comment!
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