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Joshua Hayes
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Joshua "MauiTrader" Hayes is CEO, President and founder of Big Wave Trading Inc., a Maui, Hawaii-based stock market advisory service. Hayes is a well-respected stock trader who combines fundamentals, technicals, psychology and money management to trade professionally for his personal,... More
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  • Technology Led By FB Fuel The NASDAQ Higher

    The NASDAQ hit a new multi-year high prior to noon time only to see sellers rush in and quickly move the index to its lows of the session. The S&P 500 was unable to sustain its morning gains too despite the efforts by technology names. Industrials and utilities helped push the SPX into positive territory. Consumer Services was the largest drag. Volume was up on the session across the board, but like most summer trading sessions volume ran below average. It is not big surprise volume is below average with the Fed on tap to deliver its policy statement tomorrow at 2pm. This uptrend remains intact given the price action we have in front of us.

    So many are concerned over the actions of the Fed tomorrow and are trying to gamble with how the market may or may not react. You cannot be 100% sure how the market will or won't react to whether or not the Fed talks taper or not. It is pretty clear at some point they will taper and finally end the QE program. When is another question to be answered only by the Fed. Many do believe it will start sometime this year and with the falling budget deficit it will be interesting to see if the Fed will become the soul purchaser (monetizer) of US Treasury debt. Or will they simply taper their purchases. All fun questions to ask, but it is no way to position yourself to make gains in the market.

    FB gave a classic entry after posting earnings last week. The stock hasn't looked back since it took a breather on Friday. There have been plenty of naysayers, but price action clearly shows there is a bias to the upside. AAPL was leading the charge along with FB, but pulled back from its high of the session. There is clear resistance at the February, March, and May highs. It will be interesting to see how the stock reacts at these points. A rising AAPL price is certainly a gigantic positive for the NASDAQ.

    Aside from the Federal Open Market Committee policy statement release second quarter GDP is set to be released. According to Bloomberg the consensus figure is for 1% annualized growth in the second quarter. Quite pathetic as the Fed has been pumping $85 billion a month since December and one percent growth seems quite pathetic. Common consensus says a higher than expected GDP figure would push the Fed to taper sooner rather than later. How the market reacts will be how we react. We will not try to game the direction of the market.

    Stay with the trend.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Tags: QQQ, DIA, SPY, IWM, FB, AAPL
    Jul 30 4:58 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Market Participants Await Economic Data And The Fed

    A quiet day on Wall Street today as summer trading continues. Many are likely still trying to recover from their weekend festivities. Perhaps many were with Steve Cohen. Pending home sales weren't as bad as the market was looking for, but was still negative month over month. Dallas Fed Manufacturing activity index was lower than expected coming in at 4.4 (expectations were for a reading of 7.5). The market was able to find its footing just after the European close. NYSE volume ran just below Friday's level and closed that way too. NASDAQ saw volume drop too. Major indexes were able to avoid distribution given volume was lower on the day. Today was not a game changer as this uptrend continues to march on.

    The talk of the town continues to be whether or not the Fed Chief Ben Bernanke will hint or talk about tapering the Fed bond buying program. QE and ZIRP have destroyed those who have saved by compressing short-term and long-term rates forcing folks into riskier assets. How does this translate to how we react in the market? It does not, but as a matter of policy debate we can certainly point out how much we have destroyed the earning power from savings. Who wins out Wed the Doves or Hawks?

    Leading the S&P 500 higher today were utilities. Despite the 10 year yields rallying slightly today utilities found love. On the downside the two notable groups lower were Financials and Oil & Gas. While Oil & Gas lead to the downside losing .84% Financials were down .72%. If it weren't for the Financials earnings growth would be downright dismal. ZeroHedge has been quite vocal on this point. Financials or XLF is one sector to watch. While a pullback is normal, but if the group turns into ITB/XHB would be a big red flag for this market. Until then, there is no reason to think this uptrend can't continue.

    We can guess if the market has topped or not, but we simply do not have evidence it has done so. Yes, housing stocks have rolled over and are poised to continue lower. However, they are really the only group looking like the downside is the path of least resistance. Cut those losses.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Tags: DIA, SPY, IWM, QQQ, XLU, OIL, XLF, ITB, XHB
    Jul 29 11:38 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

    The Big Wave Trading portfolio remains under a BUY signal with only a minor amount of pressure on the indexes following the weak price action on Tuesday and Wednesday in the overall market. Besides that there is no pressure in our model as leading stocks, speculative stocks, and the overall market continue to trend higher in lockstep.

    With this being the case, it does not make much sense to drone on and on about the minute details of the trading action the past week. It was a very successful week in terms of playing straddles/strangles before earnings on a few stocks like FB, BIDU, and TRIP and buyable gap ups remain the best way to return alpha in this low volume uptrending market.

    Overall, it was a decent week with not much to dissect or psycho-analyze. There is no need to waste any more of your valuable weekend time. Enjoy the rest of your weekend and I wish you the best during the upcoming week. Aloha!!

    Top Current Holdings - Percent Gain since Signal Date - Date of Signal

    RVLT long - 191% - 3/26/13
    CAMP long - 167% - 4/26/12
    POWR long - 143% - 12/11/12
    FLT long - 103% - 9/6/12
    CSU long - 91% - 9/4/12
    HEES long - 91% - 9/4/12
    WAGE long - 90% - 1/8/13
    SBGI long - 64% - 3/22/13
    ADUS long - 64% - 4/22/13
    INSM long - 50% - 4/19/13
    V long - 50% - 8/31/12
    TECUA long - 47% - 2/5/13
    WDC long - 42% - 1/9/13
    MEI long - 41% - 4/10/13
    LGF long - 38% - 4/19/13
    CHUY long - 37% - 1/10/13
    GLL long - 34% - 2/14/13
    GMCR long - 34% - 4/23/13
    ADS long - 32% - 12/11/12
    PFBI long - 31% - 11/19/12
    WST long - 30% - 1/22/13
    BEAV long - 28% - 3/5/13
    CCF long - 26% - 6/28/13

    DDD long - 25% - 4/30/13

    Disclosure: I am long RVLT, CAMP, POWR, FLT, CSU, HEES, WAGE, SBGI, ADUS, INSM, V, TECUA, WDC, MEI, LGF, CHUY, GLL, GMCR, ADS, PFBI, WST, BEAV, CCF, DDD.

    Jul 29 10:28 AM | Link | Comment!
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