Joshua Morgan Brown

Major Changes Coming to India's Gold Market

Hey Carlos,
Thanks for reading...I don't come across in this piece with a strong opinion on what the effects will be, my goal here was simply to frame the debate.

That said, I would imagine that cultural signifcance or not, someone who needs to feed their family in Inida or elsewhere would probably melt and sell...

what are your thoughts?


On Jul 07 11:39 AM Carlos Lam wrote:

> The author's article reveals an inconsistency that I call on him
> to answer: is gold ownership in India primarily for wealth storage
> or primarily "of cultural significance?" If the former, then there
> may indeed be a dampening of import demand. However, in the long-term
> may even such a dampening be "dampened" itself by India's rising
> middle class?
>
> If the latter, then I fail to see how a large portion of Indians'
> gold jewelry will be monetized; will a prized ornament, for example,
> be thoughtlessly melted down and converted to gold bars? That sounds
> strange. I am unfamiliar, however, with Indian customs vis-a-vis
> heirlooms; their view of prized ornaments may differ from ours.

Smart Balance: A Smart Investment

For the record, the title of this article is the editor's, not mine, I simply believe that SMBL is an interesting company worth watching, nowhere in my writing do I call it "a smart investment".

Market Vectors Brazil Small Cap - A New ETF for Exposure to Brazil

yeah, you want to get exposure to the new middle classes in these countries, the materials and mining exposure is easy to do via large cap adr's and existing etf's

good pickup Mark, I usually let these things trade for a little bit before jumping in

for RiskReturnOptimizer...... at VSS, international small cap...I doubt it has a lot of mexico, but its a starting point i suppose.

great article!

Does Anyone Else Miss Stock Picking?

lol!

u got me

thx for reading


On May 29 02:27 PM Bunse wrote:

> Look at how happy the adorable little girl in Joshua Morgan Brown's
> picture looks. She looks like she thinks she's taking a picture with
> "Goose" from the movie "Top Gun".
>
> *ZING*

Does Anyone Else Miss Stock Picking?

Freya, I completely agree, and PE ratios based on trough earnings (maybe) are very far down on my list of indicators.

The fun part is doing what you said, finding where the "E" is getting bigger

On May 28 09:43 AM Freya wrote:

> You can treat ETF/ETNs as individual stocks from a charting aspect,
> I know I do.
>
> Wait until this this quarters results are factored into your current
> 40 PE. You should really do some historical research into the PEs
> during prolonged Earning downcycles.
>
> I've seen a PE of a 100 on the Dow, even Negative earnings for a
> quarter. PE's are not some sort of "sacred cow" to bow before.<br/>
>
> What you should be doing is taking a look at what the "write offs"
> will do for sheltering future earnings of otherwise Solid Companies.

Does Anyone Else Miss Stock Picking?

see also: Shakespearean Lesson for Market Commentators:

thereformedbroker.com/.../

Why Ackman's Got Beef with Target

My follow up after Ackman's CNBC interview:

thereformedbroker.com/.../

The Rise of the Silver Surfer

Thanks for your comments SOCPHD

Allow me to substantiate some of my "nonsense", I'm in a good mood so what the hell...

The Slingshot Effect is a very real phenomenon. Silver maven Ted Butler has written a great deal on the subject, as have many other metals watchers who are infinitely more educated on the subject than you or I. Here is another example of the Slingshot Effect being quoted, so you don't just chalk up this possibility to "my imagination":
seekingalpha.com/artic...

Silver has been a form of currency dating back at least to Ancient Sumeria, as I mention in the article. This is one of the oldest major civilizations on record. Is that a long enough time back for you?

Gresham's law is multi-faceted, and does indeed have important ramifications for the gold to silver price in currencies and commodities

I do not recall indicating anywhere in the article that I have a degree in geology, yet 10 minutes worth of research or 10 days worth of research will likely lead you to the conclusion that my 15 to 1 ratio of silver to gold is widely-accepted and fairly accurate. If you want to refute that, take it up with the Natural History or Minerals and Metals scholars, that's not my debate.

Lastly, I don't need to push anything on my clients, but I appreciate your attempt to get nasty and personal with me...very nice. I am sorry for the frustration this world must cause you, but trust me, you do not have to worry about ever being one of my clients.

Thanks for reading.


On May 24 05:41 PM socphd71 wrote:

> 1. Low commodity prices are a danger for SLW. The miners from
> whom they are buying will reduce their output in response to low
> prices for their base metals. Thus, they have less silver to sell
> to SLW.
>
> 2. The author (J.M. Brown) mixes good sense with nonsense. There
> is more of the former, but watch out for the latter. (a) What is
> the history of the gold: silver 15:1 ratio? Gold has been used for
> millenia. Silver for how long? I don't know. So this statement
> is completely unsubstantiated. (b) How long have people known that
> the ratio of silver to gold in the earth's crust is 15:1? vs. How
> long have people been buying, selling, and minting silver and gold?
> (c) Gresham's law is: "Bad money drives out good." (d) The "slingshot
> effect" is ridiculous. It shows that Mr. Brown has an excellent
> imagination. If he uses ideas like this to sell to his clients,
> I'm glad I'm not one.
>
> 3. One can find lots of junior miners on the Agora.com website.
> Then you can do your own homework.
>
> Disclosure: long Energold Drilling (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> FNX Mining (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), ECU silver mining
> (seekingalpha.com/symbo...). These all trade under different
> symbols on Canadian exchanges.

The Rise of the Silver Surfer

ok, I appreciate your insights, as I stated at the bottom of the article, I was not writing as "the foremost authority" and I was actually looking for informational feedback.

But please do tell, if silver is not currently trading slightly above 14, then where is it? Am I looking at prices from an alternate universe or something?

I didnt discuss manipulation or the attempt to corner by the Hunts in my piece but your commentary of such was a welcome addition to the discussion here.


On May 22 10:38 AM one eye wrote:

> I do not have a clue as to what the ACTUAL price of silver would
> have been Had the Hunts not made their bid to Corner the Market.
> You don't either.
>
> Using a Historic, Manipulated price adjusted for Inflation is not
> justifiable.
>
> Apparently you do not keep up with the markets either. Silver is
> not "slightly" above $14.
>
> Gold was at $1,000 and silver at $20 last year, thats a 50 to 1 ratio
> just like the CEF ratio which has been maintained for DECADES also.
>
>
> If gold were adjusted for Inflation, some have pegged a fair current
> Value somewhere North of $2,000. This correlation should apply to
> Silver as well. Working Backwards, The $850 Gold price of acheived
> in the Last go around gives Silver "An all time" 1980 price of $17
> and correlates quite well with what occurred in 2008.
>
> To me, that Translates into a minimal current Price Of $19/oz. given
> that stupidity reigns in the Silver Markets and the decline in production
> has been A Known since last year, Silver should have the capability
> to Overshadow the price of Gold on a percentage basis by at least
> 2 to 1.
>
> That Manipulated All time High of $50 may actually be reached on
> a self-fulfilling basis.

Credit Cards, Guns and Ammo: Thanks, Washington

trust me, Im no friend to the credit card industry or their usurious ways, but I also don't feel as though putting additional pressure on these already damaged lenders is going to help the consumer get access to credit.

and for the gun guys...im not anti-second amendment and I've been in some of the most incredible public land we have available in this country, I just don't understand what the f%$# this provision needed to be shoveled into a consumer protection act. This is the kind of BS politics that should sicken every last one of you.


On May 21 05:17 PM Third Party Guy wrote:

> "banks and card companies would be required to give 45 days’ notice
> before a change in interest rates…"
>
> Wow, you mean a signed contract with a Credit Card company will actually
> be held within the standards of contract law?? Say it ain't so!
>
>
> Dear Mr. Brown,
> Your outrage is missed placed. You should have been outraged when
> the bank lobby got the law passed through Congress that allowed them
> to flatly ignore contract agreements.

Credit Cards, Guns and Ammo: Thanks, Washington

i guess you and i have a different view of recreation....i have no problem with hunting or defense against animals, but c'mon...should we have a blanket law allowing loaded guns in every park, where kids are playing no less?

What could the benefit possibly be other than to satiate the "slippery slope" crowd, and what in Crom's name does it have to do with credit cards?



On May 21 11:24 AM 2houndz wrote:

> You mean that I can now defend myself against grizzly bears when
> I visit Glacier National Park? You are right - no American should
> be able to do that.

Reinstate the Uptick Rule?

pity you stopped reading the article....cause if you did, maybe you would've commented on what I actually wrote, instead of what you thought would be written.

I don't recall defending naked shorting or endorsing 3x leveraged ETFs.

Maybe you're referring to someone else's article.


On May 14 10:27 AM irieblue wrote:

> I stopped reading this crap article at the point where you said "trader’s
> right to short". What I think you meant to say was Short and Distort.
> Re-instating the uptick rule is not about sticking it to legitimate
> short sellers, it is about the abusive Naked Short Selling and Failing
> to Deliver shares past the T+3 settlement period. It is about 3X
> Leveraged ETF's that circumvent the Margin requirements as set out
> by Reg T, a Federal Reserve Mandate. WTF don't you get . With a meaningful
> uptick rule these ETF's cant' exist because may buy put options in
> the individual securities, and there is no way they will work if
> there needs to be an uptick in all the underlying securities.

U.S. Bank Shares: Pump Almost Over, Get Ready for the Dump

this is borderline reckless

"Since when is slashing dividends and diluting shareholder stock in the best interests of shareholders"

The smartest thing the banks can do right now TO BENEFIT SHAREHOLDERS is to raise capital. the preferred coupon to the TARP is in the way of ever being able to increase buybacks or dividends as things improve. They need to clean that up and pay back the gov so they can get back to business. Smart managers sell stock when they can, and right now, these banks are able to sell stock easily. The secondaries are being placed so quickly that the roadshows to promote the offerings are being cancelled. It would be scary if the banks didnt use this window that they didn't have just 7 weeks ago.

Kindle's Here - Close the Book on Barnes & Noble

i completely agree GetMe...i note in my piece that it won't exactly be smooth sailing for amazon with other competition

thanks for reading

Josh


On May 06 09:08 AM GetMeOnTop wrote:

> OK, agree with most of what you say, but need to really throw one
> thing into the mix - The new but yet unannounced Apple tablet/netbook/newton
> gizmo/gadget/computer/...
>
> The implications are huge for the Kindle (most number show sales
> of iphone/ipod touch to be 60 times greater) as a device, and for
> the presumption of the demise of Barnes &amp; Noble and your corner
> newsstand.
>
> I don't think one needs to be a soothsayer to predict that in 5 or
> maybe 10 years most physical (aka paper) reading will be a thing
> of the past!

A who's who of financial bloggers. (Great resource, but why oh why no hyperlinks?)

no hyperlinks cause daddy's a traffic hog

lol