Lejun James Shao is the founder of www.myIRAs.net (http://www.myIRAs.net/), WhitePine Investment Inc of USA, and CEO of WhitePine Software Inc, Beijing, China. He was the top finisher in MSN's 1st US One Million Dollar Investment Contest, "Strategy Open Tournament," with a +45.88% return in 4 months from August 28 - December 2008. An IT wizard turned professional investor, James Shao graduated from the University of Michigan with a PhD degree in Computer Engineering in 1990 and worked as an assistant professor in Singapore's Nanyang Technology University for 5 years after graduation. He worked as Chief Software Engineer in DSP Technology, Design Engineer in Ford Motor Company, and several other high tech companies after his return. James Shao started his investment profession in 2001.
My field for 30 years has been consulting to corporations, and government on issues related to strategic planning, work design, change management, leadership development and coaching management teams to improve their decision making on critical issues. One of my strong interests is systems theory which I have studied extensively in terms of cybernetics, biology, anthropology, systems dynamics, socio-technical systems. In trading and investing systems thinking concepts can often be mapped across to this domain. For example one concept is at the extremes things turn into their opposites. Also true in the field of human emotions is that when things are just about to turn into their opposites - switch from a bullish to a bearish technical picture or a bearish to a bullish one people in the aggregate are firmly committed to the wrong point of view (the importance of tracking sentiment). The pull to join them in this perspective can be strong, so tools are required to warn one of when the picture is about to change. What kind of tools? Markets move in cycles - trading cycles - 8 -10 weeks, intermediate cycles 18-22 weeks on average, yearly cycles, and longer term cycles. When a trading/investment vehicle gets a certain percent above a 250 day MA risk increases, RSI's of various durations on 60 minute, daily and weekly charts can show positive or negative divergence near turning points. Elliot Wave and Fib retracements can help determine the significance of these other patterns.
I invest (technically) part-time, but I love the markets and immerse myself in them daily. I enjoy writing about my investment ideas as it helps me to organize my thoughts and I am happy to share if it helps others. I invite criticism as it will help sharpen my ideas, so please tell me where, in your opinion, I am going wrong.