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Lejun James Shao is the founder of (, WhitePine Investment Inc of USA, and CEO of WhitePine Software Inc, Beijing, China. He was the top finisher in MSN's 1st US One Million Dollar Investment Contest, "Strategy Open Tournament," with a +45.88%... More
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  • Gold - Entered Another Oversold Territory

    With today's big drop, gold price entered an oversold territory for the forth time in last 12 month. See gold 12 month daily chart below


    1. RSI at 28.64, below 30 for the forth time in the last 12 months;

    2. gold price at 1,168.20 is 11.39 below the lower bound of the BB, the second time this happended in the last 12 months. Last time this happended was on October 30, 2014.

    3. when gold price had a vertical drop, the following rebound will be quick and strong;

    4. most likely, we will see further drop next week but the bottom will also be in next week.

    5. identify the bottom: when gold price down further but gold miner ETF such as GDX or GDXJ move up, gold price is bottomed.

    6. another way to identify the bottom: RSI reading turns up from its low

    Tags: GLD, gold sector
    Mar 07 1:27 AM | Link | 7 Comments
  • Gold - Long Term Trend Is Up Since November 6, 2014

    Last November, I showed a monthly GLD chart indicating that the gold has reached its long term bottom. I will re-post it here for your reference (This chart was drawn on November 10, 2014):

    Since gold reached its November 6 low, gold price has gone ups and downs. But the trend is still clearly up with higher lows and higher highs. See its daily chart since it reached last November low:

    GLD - it gapped down today and we may see 114.00 as its bottom. As I repeated saying that we will not see 950-1,000 as the bottom. The chart says it all.

    Of course, time will tell whether my prediction is correct. But so far so good.

    If you wait to buy gold or gold miner stocks until GLD price drop to 950-1,000 level, you may miss the big chance to buy low.

    Feb 17 12:44 PM | Link | 8 Comments
  • Crude Oil - Don't Be Too Optimistic

    Crude oil closed at $52.69 last Friday, the highest close this year. Market tune turned quite positive as the oil price ran up. Other news such as rig reduction, Greece debt negotiation, Russia ceasefire agreement, etc all gave a positive push of oil price.

    But I am not so optimistic. The fundamental of demand and supply is still not indicating any sustainable rally. See its 1-month daily chart below:

    The oil price actually pulled back from $53.50 high last Friday and recent trend is with lower highs: $54.50 -> $54.00 -> $53.50.

    Of course the difference is very small and not meaningful.

    But oil price does have a strong resistance at $54.00 level.

    If it breaks out Tuesday, the most it can go is $60.00 and I doubt a break out is making now.

    Therefore my prediction for the week: oil price will still be in $48 - $54 trading range and will be looking for break out next month.

    Tags: USO, oil sector
    Feb 16 2:02 PM | Link | 1 Comment
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  • long on SCO and RUSS and will put stop-loss on SCO at 60.00. RUSS at 11.30. I am betting that oil price will drop Tuesday or Wednesday.
    Feb 16, 2015
  • $GLD topped on 1/22 and is now moving down slowly.
    Feb 5, 2015
  • $RUSS and $RUSL are good pair for short term trading.
    Feb 5, 2015
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