View Juan Carlos Zuleta's Articles BY TICKER:
Tesla Outperformed My Guidance In 2014 And Is Likely To Catch Up With It In 2015
- Over half a year ago I argued that Tesla followed my guidance until 2016.
- While my prediction for the Model S in 2014 was found to be more than 100% correct, that for the Model X was completely off the mark.
- However, recent reservation figures indicate that this year Tesla will most likely catch up with my forecasts for that car for both 2014 and 2015.
Why Falling Oil Prices Won't Stop Tesla Or EV Sales In General
- Since falling prices are meant to be a structural phenomenon, they shouldn’t result in a substantial market rebound in the form of a decrease of EV sales.
- One way to verify this reasoning would be to find no strong positive statistical correlation between oil prices and EV sales.
- The results of a chart and correlation analysis for Tesla, the U.S. EV market and the world EV market provide considerable support to my supposition.
- However, evidence that falling oil prices hurt sales of 6 (out of 19) models (most of which priced at less than $36,000) in the U.S. places doubts on Tesla’s prospects.
- In this context, two additional results suggest that consumers could still be willing to buy many EVs from Tesla as long as it keeps producing high-quality products.
Is The Fall Of Oil Prices Circumstantial?
- The fall of oil prices has started to worry Bolivia whose natural gas sale contracts with Brazil and Argentina are linked to WTI oil prices.
- This has prompted the head of the State gas company to declare that this situation may only be circumstantial.
- Here I advance three reasons to argue that this may not indeed be the case.
- This in turn could lead Bolivia (and perhaps other gas producing countries as well) to suffer a harsh reality in the years to come.
EVs Are Winning, So Is Tesla
- It has been argued that if EVs won, mainstream carmakers would be forced to compete with Tesla, and since they are more efficient than Tesla, this would mean its demise.
- Here I demonstrate that EVs are indeed winning and so is Tesla, and that the argument that Toyota, General Motors and Ford are more efficient than Tesla is not plausible.
- This also invalidates the idea of the possible death of the start-up, once competition in the EV market intensifies.
- I then show that BEVs already represent 52% of all EVs, require 83% of all lithium used in EVs, and constitute 76% of the world’s Li-ion battery capacity for EVs.
- Lastly, people’s consciousness of the need to combat climate change, and extensive Li-ion battery technological development suggest that Tesla’s competition will be coming mostly from other BEVs rather than PHEVs.
Will Deelectrification And Delithification Help GM Become More Competitive?
- Since 2013 GM has initiated a process of “deelectrification” of its plug-in and mild hybrid cars, which explains that a “delithification” process has also started to take place there.
- In the case of plug-ins, these processes may have taken a passive form whereby GM would have simply let its three plug-in models be (or die) in the market place.
- In the case of mild hybrids, they may have taken an active form with GM dropping lithium-ion batteries from its Malibu Hybrid, relegating it into a simple Stop-Start ICE car.
- But this may have distracted the company from what indeed needed to be done, that is, a thorough analysis of the overall competitiveness of the four models considered.
- Lastly, using a novel procedure to analyze competitiveness, I conclude that mild hybrids would have contributed very little to GM’s current sales debacle in four of its most important models.
Tesla's Electric Vehicle Production: Did It Follow My Guidance Until 2016, Will It Do So Thereafter?
- In a previous work, I broke down (year-by-year beginning 2014) Tesla's half a million EV figure by 2020.
- As it turned out, my numbers were found to be quite close to Tesla's own forecasts until 2016, which leads me to conclude that it had tracked my advice.
- It remains to be seen, though, whether Tesla will follow my guidance during 2017-2020 as well.
Will 12-Volt Or 48-Volt Lithium-Ion Starter/Stop-Start Batteries Ever Be Ready For Prime-Time?
- In a previous piece, I analyzed A123 Systems and BYD`s intention to introduce 12-Volt Li-ion and 48-Volt batteries as a substitute for lead-acid starter/stop-start batteries in micro-hybrid cars.
- However, neither of them was able to make progress in this regard, leaving an opening for other OEMs to take this post, albeit at the expense of an efficiency loss.
- I conclude that these developments will only contribute to delaying but not canceling out the inexorable arrival of the lithium era in the world.
Where's Tesla's Model S Competition?
- Recently, I suggested that Tesla’s Model S may have become a threat for Toyota’s Lexus hybrids and referred to the luxury large cars as a source of competition for it.
- In this article I extend these views to further enquire as to where the real competition for the Model S might be.
- I conclude that the Model S is disrupting/killing most luxury hybrids while causing serious damage to the super luxury ICE cars which may be forcing some OEMs to go all-electric.
Is The Model S A Disruptive Innovation And Tesla Motors A Disruptive Company?
- In this study I review the scientific literature on disruptive innovation as applied to electric cars in general and Tesla's Model S in particular.
- My main finding is that Clayton Christensen’s approach to this issue may be much more powerful than what most critics would believe.
- The article closes with some comments on the probable reasons why Panasonic may be reluctant to participate in Elon Musk’s Li-ion battery giga-factory adventure.
- Tesla's March Toward Germany: How Feasible Is It?
- Tesla Motors And Bolivia's Lithium Strategy: What's At Stake?
- Why Is Almost Everybody In The Auto Industry Afraid Of Tesla Motors?
- Japan Vs. South Korea: Who Will Win The Lithium-Ion Battery War?
- Beyond Diesel: What Can Bolivia And Other Countries Learn From The US And Italy Experiences With LNG?
- Are Ford And Tesla Pushing Toyota To Adopt Li-Ion Batteries?
- Why Better Place's Swap Scheme Failed And Tesla's Is Likely To Succeed For Now
- Lithium Ion Starter Batteries: Will BYD Take The Place Of A123 Systems?
- Lithium Goes Forward: The FAA Approves Boeing's Battery Design Changes
- Apple And Boeing Stumble: Was Outsourcing Innovation Part Of The Problem? Part II
- Apple And Boeing Stumble: Was Outsourcing Innovation Part Of The Problem? Part I
- Apple Vs. Samsung: Further Evidence On Innovation As A Way Of Living
- Apple Vs. Samsung: Should Innovation Be Viewed As A Way Of Living?
- What After Peak Oil: Oil, Lithium Batteries, Fuel Cells, Or All Of Them?
Is The Inclusion Of Natural Gas Liquids In The Definition Of Oil Plausible?
Aug. 8, 2012 • 11 Comments
- Apple Takes the Lead: Laptops, iPads And iPhones Without Lithium?
- Japan Vs. South Korea In The Lithium-Ion Battery War
- Does Restructuring the Global X Lithium ETF Make Sense?
- Toyota Still Leads the Hybrid Race
- Lithium-Ion Battery Developments: Most Affected Key Companies and ETFs
- Bolivia: Government Intervention and the Pace of Lithium Battery Adoption
- Lithium Batteries and Electric Cars: Why Oil ETFs Are Better Investments for Now
- Lithium-Ion Hybrids: Hyundai and Kia Take the Lead