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Juan Carlos Zuleta  

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  • Tesla Outperformed My Guidance In 2014 And Is Likely To Catch Up With It In 2015
    Wed, Feb. 11 TSLA 104 Comments

    Summary

    • Over half a year ago I argued that Tesla followed my guidance until 2016.
    • While my prediction for the Model S in 2014 was found to be more than 100% correct, that for the Model X was completely off the mark.
    • However, recent reservation figures indicate that this year Tesla will most likely catch up with my forecasts for that car for both 2014 and 2015.
  • Why Falling Oil Prices Won't Stop Tesla Or EV Sales In General
    Mon, Jan. 12 TSLA 60 Comments

    Summary

    • Since falling prices are meant to be a structural phenomenon, they shouldn’t result in a substantial market rebound in the form of a decrease of EV sales.
    • One way to verify this reasoning would be to find no strong positive statistical correlation between oil prices and EV sales.
    • The results of a chart and correlation analysis for Tesla, the U.S. EV market and the world EV market provide considerable support to my supposition.
    • However, evidence that falling oil prices hurt sales of 6 (out of 19) models (most of which priced at less than $36,000) in the U.S. places doubts on Tesla’s prospects.
    • In this context, two additional results suggest that consumers could still be willing to buy many EVs from Tesla as long as it keeps producing high-quality products.
  • Is The Fall Of Oil Prices Circumstantial?
    Oct. 17, 2014 USO, OIL, UCO 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The fall of oil prices has started to worry Bolivia whose natural gas sale contracts with Brazil and Argentina are linked to WTI oil prices.
    • This has prompted the head of the State gas company to declare that this situation may only be circumstantial.
    • Here I advance three reasons to argue that this may not indeed be the case.
    • This in turn could lead Bolivia (and perhaps other gas producing countries as well) to suffer a harsh reality in the years to come.
  • EVs Are Winning, So Is Tesla
    Sep. 29, 2014 TSLA 491 Comments

    Summary

    • It has been argued that if EVs won, mainstream carmakers would be forced to compete with Tesla, and since they are more efficient than Tesla, this would mean its demise.
    • Here I demonstrate that EVs are indeed winning and so is Tesla, and that the argument that Toyota, General Motors and Ford are more efficient than Tesla is not plausible.
    • This also invalidates the idea of the possible death of the start-up, once competition in the EV market intensifies.
    • I then show that BEVs already represent 52% of all EVs, require 83% of all lithium used in EVs, and constitute 76% of the world’s Li-ion battery capacity for EVs.
    • Lastly, people’s consciousness of the need to combat climate change, and extensive Li-ion battery technological development suggest that Tesla’s competition will be coming mostly from other BEVs rather than PHEVs.
  • Will Deelectrification And Delithification Help GM Become More Competitive?
    Sep. 12, 2014 GM 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Since 2013 GM has initiated a process of “deelectrification” of its plug-in and mild hybrid cars, which explains that a “delithification” process has also started to take place there.
    • In the case of plug-ins, these processes may have taken a passive form whereby GM would have simply let its three plug-in models be (or die) in the market place.
    • In the case of mild hybrids, they may have taken an active form with GM dropping lithium-ion batteries from its Malibu Hybrid, relegating it into a simple Stop-Start ICE car.
    • But this may have distracted the company from what indeed needed to be done, that is, a thorough analysis of the overall competitiveness of the four models considered.
    • Lastly, using a novel procedure to analyze competitiveness, I conclude that mild hybrids would have contributed very little to GM’s current sales debacle in four of its most important models.
  • Tesla's Electric Vehicle Production: Did It Follow My Guidance Until 2016, Will It Do So Thereafter?
    Aug. 14, 2014 TSLA 73 Comments

    Summary

    • In a previous work, I broke down (year-by-year beginning 2014) Tesla's half a million EV figure by 2020.
    • As it turned out, my numbers were found to be quite close to Tesla's own forecasts until 2016, which leads me to conclude that it had tracked my advice.
    • It remains to be seen, though, whether Tesla will follow my guidance during 2017-2020 as well.
  • Will 12-Volt Or 48-Volt Lithium-Ion Starter/Stop-Start Batteries Ever Be Ready For Prime-Time?
    Jul. 3, 2014 BYDDF 7 Comments

    Summary

    • In a previous piece, I analyzed A123 Systems and BYD`s intention to introduce 12-Volt Li-ion and 48-Volt batteries as a substitute for lead-acid starter/stop-start batteries in micro-hybrid cars.
    • However, neither of them was able to make progress in this regard, leaving an opening for other OEMs to take this post, albeit at the expense of an efficiency loss.
    • I conclude that these developments will only contribute to delaying but not canceling out the inexorable arrival of the lithium era in the world.
  • Where's Tesla's Model S Competition?
    Apr. 22, 2014 TSLA 175 Comments

    Summary

    • Recently, I suggested that Tesla’s Model S may have become a threat for Toyota’s Lexus hybrids and referred to the luxury large cars as a source of competition for it.
    • In this article I extend these views to further enquire as to where the real competition for the Model S might be.
    • I conclude that the Model S is disrupting/killing most luxury hybrids while causing serious damage to the super luxury ICE cars which may be forcing some OEMs to go all-electric.
  • Is The Model S A Disruptive Innovation And Tesla Motors A Disruptive Company?
    Editors' Pick • Apr. 1, 2014 TSLA 217 Comments

    Summary

    • In this study I review the scientific literature on disruptive innovation as applied to electric cars in general and Tesla's Model S in particular.
    • My main finding is that Clayton Christensen’s approach to this issue may be much more powerful than what most critics would believe.
    • The article closes with some comments on the probable reasons why Panasonic may be reluctant to participate in Elon Musk’s Li-ion battery giga-factory adventure.
  • Tesla's March Toward Germany: How Feasible Is It?
    Feb. 16, 2014 TSLA 225 Comments
  • Tesla Motors And Bolivia's Lithium Strategy: What's At Stake?
    Jan. 28, 2014 TSLA 36 Comments
  • Why Is Almost Everybody In The Auto Industry Afraid Of Tesla Motors?
    Dec. 28, 2013 TSLA 443 Comments
  • Japan Vs. South Korea: Who Will Win The Lithium-Ion Battery War?
    Dec. 3, 2013 PCRFY, LGCLF, SSNLF 4 Comments
  • Beyond Diesel: What Can Bolivia And Other Countries Learn From The US And Italy Experiences With LNG?
    Oct. 6, 2013 CLNE, UNG, NAGS 1 Comment
  • Are Ford And Tesla Pushing Toyota To Adopt Li-Ion Batteries?
    Editors' Pick • Jul. 10, 2013 TM 17 Comments
  • Why Better Place's Swap Scheme Failed And Tesla's Is Likely To Succeed For Now
    Jun. 28, 2013 TSLA 41 Comments
  • Lithium Ion Starter Batteries: Will BYD Take The Place Of A123 Systems?
    May. 17, 2013 BYDDF 7 Comments
  • Lithium Goes Forward: The FAA Approves Boeing's Battery Design Changes
    Editors' Pick • Apr. 23, 2013 BA 6 Comments
  • Apple And Boeing Stumble: Was Outsourcing Innovation Part Of The Problem? Part II
    Apr. 16, 2013 BA 7 Comments
  • Apple And Boeing Stumble: Was Outsourcing Innovation Part Of The Problem? Part I
    Apr. 16, 2013 AAPL 28 Comments
  • Apple Vs. Samsung: Further Evidence On Innovation As A Way Of Living
    Jan. 24, 2013 AAPL, SSNLF 38 Comments
  • Apple Vs. Samsung: Should Innovation Be Viewed As A Way Of Living?
    Oct. 22, 2012 AAPL, SSNLF 12 Comments
  • What After Peak Oil: Oil, Lithium Batteries, Fuel Cells, Or All Of Them?
    Editors' Pick • Sep. 11, 2012 DBO, OLO, USL 276 Comments
  • Is The Inclusion Of Natural Gas Liquids In The Definition Of Oil Plausible?
    Aug. 8, 2012 11 Comments
  • Apple Takes the Lead: Laptops, iPads And iPhones Without Lithium?
    Jan. 2, 2012 AAPL 28 Comments
  • Japan Vs. South Korea In The Lithium-Ion Battery War
    Nov. 21, 2011 LGCLF, SSNLF, PCRFY 16 Comments
  • Does Restructuring the Global X Lithium ETF Make Sense?
    Nov. 10, 2011 LIT 4 Comments
  • Toyota Still Leads the Hybrid Race
    Jul. 15, 2011 TM, HMC, F 23 Comments
  • Lithium-Ion Battery Developments: Most Affected Key Companies and ETFs
    Jul. 1, 2011 AONEQ, BYDDF, LIT 30 Comments
  • Bolivia: Government Intervention and the Pace of Lithium Battery Adoption
    Jun. 24, 2011 NOK, LIT 4 Comments
  • Lithium Batteries and Electric Cars: Why Oil ETFs Are Better Investments for Now
    Jun. 24, 2011 DBO 2 Comments
  • Lithium-Ion Hybrids: Hyundai and Kia Take the Lead
    May. 4, 2011 HYMLF, KIMTF, HMC 14 Comments