Juan Carlos Zuleta

GM Board's Search for a 'World Class CEO' Is Not a Good Sign

I have long advocated the Volt as a revolutionary step forward in the transition to electric propulsion of the global car industry. I wonder how this management change will affect GM´s original plan to launch towards the end of the year the first mass-produced range-extended electric vehicle in the US market.

One thing I know for sure though is that the Obama Administration is not really clear as to how to go about managing the motor giant crisis nowadays just as it was not certain earlier this year about advanced battery and EV technologies (See for example my blog evworld.com/blogs/inde...).

In this context, I agree with the author of this article that the main problem here is not necessarily to change the CEO but to transform the company.

Berkshire Well Positioned for Buffett's Prediction on Electric Cars

Buffet`s contention that in 20 years "all the cars on the roads will be electric" is essentially the same as the argument that "a transition to electric propulsion will most likely take place gradually during the next 20 years or so" (See: www.evworld.com/articl...) or the argument that "lithium will take over the energy market only gradually in the course of the next 20 years or so as a key factor of the new techno-economic paradigm in the world; until then, many energy technologies will co-exist" (See: www.evworld.com/articl...) I put forward about a year and a half ago.

What Rising Oil Prices Mean for Energy Investors

I`m afraid there is a confusion here in the use of standard technical terms in the oil industry. As far as I know, the sum of finding and lifting costs would indeed be total upstream costs, whereas what the author calls total upstream costs would in fact be total downstream costs

EXIDE TECHNOLOGIES IN THE LITHIUM-ION ENERGY SYSTEMS MARKET?

Engstudent, until recently, there was a dichotomy between lead-acid (or nickel metal hydride) and lithium-ion technologies. Now for many battery and car makers they are becoming complementary. But eventually, lithium is likely to substitute all those obsolete technologies.

A Long Look at Lithium: Chile's SQM Poised for Growth

Davewmart, you are essentially correct. I was a bit confused with the information related to the Li contained in the ponds of Salar de Atacama prior to entering the chemical plant. To be more precise, Li carbonate is equivalent to 18.80 % of pure Li, or 1 kg of Li content is equivalent to 5.32 kg of Li Carbonate.


On Aug 14 11:07 AM Davewmart wrote:

> I based my figure of 20% lithium in lithium carbonate on Chemettall's
> figures here:
> www.chemetalllithium.c...
> If anyone is a good enough chemist, they could work out the weight
> ratio from the chemical formula of lithium carbonate - Li2CO3.<br/>It
> is certainly beyond me!
> In any case there is certainly plenty of lithium, as Chemettall makes
> clear in the pdf linked on the site I referenced.

A Long Look at Lithium: Chile's SQM Poised for Growth

Davewmart, from the information provided by SQM during my visit to Salar of Atacama in Chile back in January 2009, lithium carbonate has only 6% of Li content.


On Aug 14 07:37 AM Davewmart wrote:

> Thanks for driving a nail into the coffin of arguments about running
> out of lithium.
> For other readers who don't closely follow the technology it is worth
> pointing out that both lithium and lithium carbonate are often referred
> to, the latter of which contains around 20% pure lithium by weight.

Alternative Energy Storage: Cheap Continues to Outperform Cool

John,
I wonder how the picture you´ve been trying to portray for quite some time now would change if you include in your stock comparison other important players in the advanced battery market, such as A123 Systems in the US and BYD in China.

Questioning Berkshire Hathaway's BYD Purchase: Long-Term Economics?

Mr. Buffet´s investment rules are valid under normal ("business as usual") conditions. But we are at the advent of a new techno-economic paradigm with lithium as its main factor and those rules no longer apply. Buffet knows that because he is a visionary man. That is why be decided to bet on BYD. Just remeber how BYD became one of the leading electric carmakers in the world. It started producing Li-ion batteries and suddenly jumped into the electric car business. Why? Simply because a Li-ion battery in an electric car is about half the car, both in terms of technology and cost. Time will tell whether its competitive advantage in the battery will extend to the rest of the car to become one of the leading electric carmakers in the world.

Lithium-Ion Batteries for Hybrid Vehicles?

NorthernPike, agreed.


On Jul 19 06:33 PM NorthernPiker wrote:

> Juan,
>
> I was not proposing a bundle of vehicles - 4 billion HEVs plus 300
> million Volts plus 100 million Tesla Roadsters. Such a bundle would
> require about 2.9 (actually 2.87594) million MT of lithium metal.
>
>
> I was suggesting 4 billion HEVs, 300 million Volts or 100 million
> Tesla Roadsters would each require approximately 1 million MT of
> lithium metal. This helps me in understanding the magnitude of 1
> million MT of lithium. For example, in the case of a 25 kWh BEV,
> a million MT of lithium metal equates to about 200 million vehicles.
>
>
> (BTW 2.87594 is the inverse of 0.3477125, which it should be. Agreed?)

Lithium-Ion Batteries for Hybrid Vehicles?

Not so, NorthernPike. If you redo your math you will see that 1 million MT of Li metal would suffice for the 4,4 billion vehicle you suggest only if the LCE (kg)/ kWh required in a Li-ion battery is 0,3477125, not 1 (as suggested by me) or even 0,6 (as suggested by Keith Evans). Needless to say, however, from the argument in my article above it is clear that I dont´t agree with the kind of bundle (package) of vehicles you propose. But, that, of course, could be the subject of a new article.

Lithium-Ion Batteries for Hybrid Vehicles?

NorthernPiker, here is my reply. First, neither in his comment nor in a previous article of his also published here (see: seekingalpha.com/autho...), Keith referred to the use of nominal and usable energy in his calculations. Second, I have the impresion that you are confusing the LCE per kWh required in a Li-ion battery with "your" concept of usable energy for every 16 kWh of nominal energy (like in the Volt).


On Jul 18 09:58 AM NorthernPiker wrote:

> Juan,
>
> Keith Evans’ math, 560 million EVs per million MT (tonne, or metric
> ton) of lithium, is not that far off if you accept his assumption
> of 10 kWh per EV.
>
> As you stated, “1 million MT Li metal = 5,32 million MT Lithium Carbonate
> Equivalent (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)” = 5.32 billion kg
> LCE. So, using your suggested “better assumption” of 1kg of LCE per
> kWh, I get 532 million EVs per million MT of lithium. Using Keith
> Evans’ 0.6 kg LCE per kWh and 10 kWh of usable energy for every 16
> kWh of nominal energy (like in the Volt), or 9.6 kWh of usable storage
> per EV, I get his 560 million number.

Lithium-Ion Batteries for Hybrid Vehicles?

NorthernPiker, here is my reply. First, neither in his comment nor in a previous article of his also published here (see: seekingalpha.com/autho...), Keith referred to the use of nominal and usable energy in his calculations. Second, I have the impresion that you are confusing the LCE per kWh required in a Li-ion battery with "your" concept of usable energy for every 16 kWh of nominal energy (like in the Volt).


On Jul 18 09:58 AM NorthernPiker wrote:

> Juan,
>
> Keith Evans’ math, 560 million EVs per million MT (tonne, or metric
> ton) of lithium, is not that far off if you accept his assumption
> of 10 kWh per EV.
>
> As you stated, “1 million MT Li metal = 5,32 million MT Lithium Carbonate
> Equivalent (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)” = 5.32 billion kg
> LCE. So, using your suggested “better assumption” of 1kg of LCE per
> kWh, I get 532 million EVs per million MT of lithium. Using Keith
> Evans’ 0.6 kg LCE per kWh and 10 kWh of usable energy for every 16
> kWh of nominal energy (like in the Volt), or 9.6 kWh of usable storage
> per EV, I get his 560 million number.

Lithium-Ion Batteries for Hybrid Vehicles?

jerrydd, I agree with you that there is enough power to charge
any possible EVs to be built and introduced into the market. I also agree that Bolivia has to enter the lithium market ASAP if it is not to be left behind. Beware though that Bolivia´s lithium potential goes far beyond the Salar of Uyuni (See: www.newworldresource.c...). For a recent comparison among different battery technologies see: reviews.cnet.com/8301-...; www.madkatz.com/ev/bat.... Lastly, as I have argued in my presentation at the LS&M conference in January 2009, not only the oil price but also its volatility constitute one of the factors for the adoption of Li-ion batteries (See: www.lithiumsite.com/up...). In addition, we have to keep an eye on the fact that most oil companies are nowadays state-owned oil companies and some of them may be concerned with mitigating the world´s environmental problems. But, of course, there may also be some state-owned oil companies with a different agenda.

On Jul 16 12:27 PM jerrydd wrote:

>
> Hi Juan, good info here mostly. A few points.
>
> There is plenty of power to charge any possible amount of EV's built
> in the next 10 yrs. EV's can be used for peak power needs, V2G which
> has been available for 10+ yrs by Aerovironment among others and
> few will be charged at 6pm but at 1-6 am instead.
>
> I hope Bolivia start doing Lithium soon or they will be left behind
> as almost every oil well in the world is in the middle of a salt
> dome and over a brine pool many of which will have usable lithium
> brines.
> Lithium is common, we just never needed it before so only now looking
> for it.
>
> There are multiple EV batteries including Sodium, Alum or Zinc air,
> Nicad that are ready to go, they just need orders. MiMH, NiCad materials
> are too costly so will rarely be practical unless 50 yr life is needed.
> I use 40 yr old flooded nicads that still put out rated power in
> a small EV.
>
> Alum/Zinc air recharges by changing the plates but give 400-600 mile
> ranges if wanted.
>
> Most batteries can be recharged as fast as they can be discharged.
> We have charged in 15 minutes to 80% Lead, A123 Lithium's, Nicads
> without problems.
>
> From the comment there seems some oilies here who are scared of EV's
> as they should be. It's hard to beat EV's with $4/gal oil.
>
> While EV's won't start fast that's only because big auto won't supply
> them at a reasonable price. Watch out for BYD as they are ready if
> others are not.

Lithium-Ion Batteries for Hybrid Vehicles?

Ken, I very much doubt the new joint venture will be able to compete with the Japanese (Hitachi, NEC, Panasonic, etc.) and the Chinese (BYD, etc.) who have already bet on Li-ion.


On Jul 16 12:20 PM Ken Grubb wrote:

> Just this week it was announced that SB LiMotive, a joint venture
> between Samsung SDI and Robert Bosch, will acquire Cobasys.
>
> One has to now wonder whether SB LiMotive will now resume manufacturing
> the NiMH EV-95 battery that powered the Toyota RAV4-EV to a range
> upwards of 140 miles.
>
> Ken Grubb
> Puyallup, WA, USA

Lithium-Ion Batteries for Hybrid Vehicles?

Keith, To begin with, I am afraid there is something wrong with your numbers, under your assumptions (0,6 kg per 1KWh; each vehicle requires 10 KWh), 1 million MT Li metal = 5,32 million MT Lithium Carbonate Equivalent), there is no way to come up with with 560 million vehicles per 1 million MT of Li metal. Secondly, I am not very happy with your first assumption; it is probably too low. I am aware that it is based on SQM, Chemetall and FMC´s figures, but as you know they are essentially mining companies, not lithium-ion battery producers. A better assumption is perhaps 1Kg per 1 KWh. Thirdly, based on the analysis in my article, I would place some doubts on your second assumption. If we can expect a real electric car rush beginning in two or three years, then 10 KWh per vehicle is probably way too low, considering that each REEV (i.e.each Volt) will require around 16 KWh and each BEV will need 25 KWh. Lastly, in order to come up with generally accepted lithium reserve figures we need some kind of "mineral resource/reserve valuation standards" for global application just as the ones the Canadian Institute of Mining (CIM) has published in May 2009.