Judy Weil - Seeking Alpha 'Judy Weil' Tag RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/judy-weil Have Banks Turned or Burned? - Barron's http://seekingalpha.com/article/123384-have-banks-turned-or-burned-barron-s?source=feed 123384 For the stout-hearted, Barron’s’ Andrew Bary wonders whether a bottom for financials may be at hand.

On Friday, financial shares tanked after the U.S. government and large private investors offered to convert their preferred shares in Citigroup (C) to common shares. The conversion will raise Citigroup’s tangible capital ratio [TCR], the measure of a bank’s common equity divided by its tangible assets, to around 4% from 1.5% currently. Fearing massive dilution however, investors dumped financials; Citi shares fell 39%.

]]> Sun, 01 Mar 2009 08:41:48 -0500 SA Editor Judy Weil For the stout-hearted, Barron’s’ Andrew Bary wonders whether a bottom for financials may be at hand.

On Friday, financial shares tanked after the U.S. government and large private investors offered to convert their preferred shares in Citigroup (C) to common shares. The conversion will raise Citigroup’s tangible capital ratio [TCR], the measure of a bank’s common equity divided by its tangible assets, to around 4% from 1.5% currently. Fearing massive dilution however, investors dumped financials; Citi shares fell 39%.


Complete Story »]]> BAC C CMA COF JPM KEY STI USB WFC SA Editor Judy Weil Luxury Manhattan Real Estate Could Fall Another 50% - Barron's http://seekingalpha.com/article/121917-luxury-manhattan-real-estate-could-fall-another-50-barron-s?source=feed 121917 Even Barron’s, which forecast in November a New York real estate decline, seems surprised by the velocity of NYC’s luxury market crash. Sales were down 40% while prices declined 20% in Q408. Look out, says Barron’s Leslie P. Norton: High end NYC apartments and townhouses could fall by another 30%-50% and recovery will be protracted.

Two years into a nationwide downturn, NY is just starting to feel housing pain. Yet feel it it is as the city faces a perfect storm of harder-to-get “super-jumbo” ($650K+) loans, higher down payment and credit score requirements, disappearing Wall St. jobs and a glut of condo conversions. Purported housing bubble inflators such as foreign buyers and hedge fund managers have retreated. Even the merely affluent are feeling stock market shock.

]]> Sun, 22 Feb 2009 17:02:21 -0500 SA Editor Judy Weil Even Barron’s, which forecast in November a New York real estate decline, seems surprised by the velocity of NYC’s luxury market crash. Sales were down 40% while prices declined 20% in Q408. Look out, says Barron’s Leslie P. Norton: High end NYC apartments and townhouses could fall by another 30%-50% and recovery will be protracted.

Two years into a nationwide downturn, NY is just starting to feel housing pain. Yet feel it it is as the city faces a perfect storm of harder-to-get “super-jumbo” ($650K+) loans, higher down payment and credit score requirements, disappearing Wall St. jobs and a glut of condo conversions. Purported housing bubble inflators such as foreign buyers and hedge fund managers have retreated. Even the merely affluent are feeling stock market shock.


Complete Story »]]> ICF IYR SA Editor Judy Weil Coca-Cola Spins the Bottle(rs) http://seekingalpha.com/article/120894-coca-cola-spins-the-bottle-rs?source=feed 120894 Coca-Cola Company (KO) executives talk about bottlers on its Q408 conference call:

We will continue to invest with our bottling partners. Our bottling partners’ appetite for investment remains very strong around the world.

]]> Tue, 17 Feb 2009 08:22:49 -0500 SA Editor Judy Weil Coca-Cola Company (KO) executives talk about bottlers on its Q408 conference call:

We will continue to invest with our bottling partners. Our bottling partners’ appetite for investment remains very strong around the world.


Complete Story »]]> CCE CCH CCLAY.PK COKE KO KOF PBG SA Editor Judy Weil REIT Mack-Cali on the NY Office Market http://seekingalpha.com/article/120864-reit-mack-cali-on-the-ny-office-market?source=feed 120864 Office REIT Mack-Cali Realty Corp. (CLI) speaks about the NY office real estate market on its Q408 conference call:

In the fourth quarter, we saw 20% fewer new prospects in the market in the same period last year.

]]> Tue, 17 Feb 2009 05:08:53 -0500 SA Editor Judy Weil Office REIT Mack-Cali Realty Corp. (CLI) speaks about the NY office real estate market on its Q408 conference call:

In the fourth quarter, we saw 20% fewer new prospects in the market in the same period last year.


Complete Story »]]> BXP CLI FRI PLD SPG VNO SA Editor Judy Weil Terex's Gloomy Outlook for Mining and Construction http://seekingalpha.com/article/120825-terex-s-gloomy-outlook-for-mining-and-construction?source=feed 120825 What a change from Terex Corp.'s Q308 conference call. In early December, most mining companies were highly bullish on mining and cranes, particularly Terex (TEX).

Key points from Terex Corp.’s Q408 conference call:

Our Cranes and Mining businesses were not immune to the effects of the economic crisis. While order rates continue to soften in AWP, Construction and Material Processing, the Cranes business in particular in the tower and rough terrain cranes product lines experienced significant reductions.

]]> Tue, 17 Feb 2009 03:08:10 -0500 SA Editor Judy Weil What a change from Terex Corp.'s Q308 conference call. In early December, most mining companies were highly bullish on mining and cranes, particularly Terex (TEX).

Key points from Terex Corp.’s Q408 conference call:

Our Cranes and Mining businesses were not immune to the effects of the economic crisis. While order rates continue to soften in AWP, Construction and Material Processing, the Cranes business in particular in the tower and rough terrain cranes product lines experienced significant reductions.


Complete Story »]]> CAT F FLR FWLT KBR TEX SA Editor Judy Weil Marriott on Luxury and Timesharing Markets http://seekingalpha.com/article/120815-marriott-on-luxury-and-timesharing-markets?source=feed 120815 Luxury hotels have taken a beating this year in the wake of Wall Street's bailout by the U.S. government. Financial and other firms are canceling meetings and corporate conferences so as not to appear to be spending excessively. Hotel executives are not optimistic for the luxury segment in 2009 either.

From Marriott International's FQ408 conference call: (MAR)

]]> Tue, 17 Feb 2009 01:39:38 -0500 SA Editor Judy Weil Luxury hotels have taken a beating this year in the wake of Wall Street's bailout by the U.S. government. Financial and other firms are canceling meetings and corporate conferences so as not to appear to be spending excessively. Hotel executives are not optimistic for the luxury segment in 2009 either.

From Marriott International's FQ408 conference call: (MAR)


Complete Story »]]> HET IHG L LVS MAR MGM PEJ WYNN SA Editor Judy Weil Annaly Points Out Another TARP Anomaly http://seekingalpha.com/article/120761-annaly-points-out-another-tarp-anomaly?source=feed 120761 Annaly Capital Management (NLY) makes an interesting point about the TARP program and banks. Will the loan terms prove to be counter-productive and actually harm the banking sector's recovery? From Annaly's Q408 conference call:

I met with the CEO of one of the major banks last week and he congratulated me on running the third largest capitalized bank in New York.

]]> Mon, 16 Feb 2009 06:02:45 -0500 SA Editor Judy Weil Annaly Capital Management (NLY) makes an interesting point about the TARP program and banks. Will the loan terms prove to be counter-productive and actually harm the banking sector's recovery? From Annaly's Q408 conference call:

I met with the CEO of one of the major banks last week and he congratulated me on running the third largest capitalized bank in New York.


Complete Story »]]> IYF KBE NLY PGF PJB XLF SA Editor Judy Weil Annaly Capital To Take Fannie, Freddie's Place? http://seekingalpha.com/article/120748-annaly-capital-to-take-fannie-freddie-s-place?source=feed 120748 Could Annaly Capital Management (NLY) be one of the 'private sector partners' that Geithner referred to in his plan to save the economy?

From Annaly's Q408 conference call:

]]> Mon, 16 Feb 2009 05:13:26 -0500 SA Editor Judy Weil Could Annaly Capital Management (NLY) be one of the 'private sector partners' that Geithner referred to in his plan to save the economy?

From Annaly's Q408 conference call:


Complete Story »]]> FNM FRE ICF IYR NLY SA Editor Judy Weil Gramercy Capital's Further Downside Risks http://seekingalpha.com/article/120527-gramercy-capital-s-further-downside-risks?source=feed 120527 Gramercy Capital (GKK) is a REIT that specializes in mortgage and real estate loans. A slew of REITs have been reporting in the last two weeks, and several have mentioned outstanding loans and joint ventures with Gramercy. Gramercy has given some of them extensions on their loans, but it doesn't appear to be from a position of strength.

Shares have been in a downtrend since May 2008 when they were still trading around $20. GKK closed at $1.05 on Friday; there could be more downside to go.

]]> Mon, 16 Feb 2009 04:00:34 -0500 SA Editor Judy Weil Gramercy Capital (GKK) is a REIT that specializes in mortgage and real estate loans. A slew of REITs have been reporting in the last two weeks, and several have mentioned outstanding loans and joint ventures with Gramercy. Gramercy has given some of them extensions on their loans, but it doesn't appear to be from a position of strength.

Shares have been in a downtrend since May 2008 when they were still trading around $20. GKK closed at $1.05 on Friday; there could be more downside to go.


Complete Story »]]> CLI FCE GKK ICF IYR RWR SLG VNQ SA Editor Judy Weil Whirlpool's Ticking Pension Time Bomb? http://seekingalpha.com/article/120455-whirlpool-s-ticking-pension-time-bomb?source=feed 120455 Whirlpool is in compliance with its debt covenants, but has initiated talks with banks about amending their covenants in anticipation of an even more difficult market ahead. Many companies across the spectrum are struggling to fund their employee pension funds, Whirlpool as well.

Analysts, however, questioned whether it was reasonable to continue paying a dividend in light of a significant and growing pension deficit.

]]> Fri, 13 Feb 2009 05:55:43 -0500 SA Editor Judy Weil Whirlpool is in compliance with its debt covenants, but has initiated talks with banks about amending their covenants in anticipation of an even more difficult market ahead. Many companies across the spectrum are struggling to fund their employee pension funds, Whirlpool as well.

Analysts, however, questioned whether it was reasonable to continue paying a dividend in light of a significant and growing pension deficit.


Complete Story »]]> ELUXY.PK PSL VDC WHR XLP SA Editor Judy Weil REITs That Have Stopped Dead in Their Tracks http://seekingalpha.com/article/120453-reits-that-have-stopped-dead-in-their-tracks?source=feed 120453 It isn't shocking that residential or apartment REITs such as Colonial Properties or UDR have completely stopped developments for 2009. Of note here is that ProLogis, an industrial REIT is doing the same:

From Colonial Properties Trust Q408 conference call: (CLP)

]]> Fri, 13 Feb 2009 05:46:13 -0500 SA Editor Judy Weil It isn't shocking that residential or apartment REITs such as Colonial Properties or UDR have completely stopped developments for 2009. Of note here is that ProLogis, an industrial REIT is doing the same:

From Colonial Properties Trust Q408 conference call: (CLP)


Complete Story »]]> AMB CLI CLP FR PLD PSB RWR UDR VNQ SA Editor Judy Weil Las Vegas Sands: 'Boondoggles' Still Profitable http://seekingalpha.com/article/120172-las-vegas-sands-boondoggles-still-profitable?source=feed 120172 Wells Fargo's (WFC) CEO notwithstanding, Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) says business travel to Las Vegas is still doing well.

From Las Vegas Sands Corp.'s Q408 conference call:

]]> Thu, 12 Feb 2009 07:20:48 -0500 SA Editor Judy Weil Wells Fargo's (WFC) CEO notwithstanding, Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) says business travel to Las Vegas is still doing well.

From Las Vegas Sands Corp.'s Q408 conference call:


Complete Story »]]> BJK BYD LVS MGM SA Editor Judy Weil Fannie, Freddie and Multi-Family REITs Part II http://seekingalpha.com/article/120154-fannie-freddie-and-multi-family-reits-part-ii?source=feed 120154 REITs discuss Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) lending on their conference calls. Fannie and Freddie are lending, but at much tougher standards. Loan-to-values are at 65%.

A sampling of those that borrow:

]]> Thu, 12 Feb 2009 06:10:23 -0500 SA Editor Judy Weil REITs discuss Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) lending on their conference calls. Fannie and Freddie are lending, but at much tougher standards. Loan-to-values are at 65%.

A sampling of those that borrow:


Complete Story »]]> ACC AEC AIV AVB BRE CLP CPT ELS EQR ESS FNM FRE HME MAA PPS SNH UDR SA Editor Judy Weil Fannie, Freddie and Multi-Family REITs Part I http://seekingalpha.com/article/120135-fannie-freddie-and-multi-family-reits-part-i?source=feed 120135 Industry magazine Globe St. notes that analysts have dropped apartment REIT ratings to Underperform. The only silver lining for those REITs is that Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) are still lending to them. In fact, they are practically the only ones lending to the industry.

As noted on REITs UDR Inc. (UDR) and Colonial Properties Trust's (CLP) conference calls, even when Fannie and Freddie aren't lending, they are backstopping lenders that do.

]]> Thu, 12 Feb 2009 04:45:48 -0500 SA Editor Judy Weil Industry magazine Globe St. notes that analysts have dropped apartment REIT ratings to Underperform. The only silver lining for those REITs is that Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) are still lending to them. In fact, they are practically the only ones lending to the industry.

As noted on REITs UDR Inc. (UDR) and Colonial Properties Trust's (CLP) conference calls, even when Fannie and Freddie aren't lending, they are backstopping lenders that do.


Complete Story »]]> AIV AVB BRE CLP EQR ESS FNM FRE UDR SA Editor Judy Weil Five Key Points from Colonial Properties REIT's Q408 Conference Call http://seekingalpha.com/article/120117-five-key-points-from-colonial-properties-reit-s-q408-conference-call?source=feed 120117 Five key points from Colonial Properties Trust's Q408 conference call: (CLP)

Becoming an apartment REIT:

]]> Thu, 12 Feb 2009 04:25:23 -0500 SA Editor Judy Weil Five key points from Colonial Properties Trust's Q408 conference call: (CLP)

Becoming an apartment REIT:


Complete Story »]]> AIV CLP EQR GGP MAA RWR UDR VNQ SA Editor Judy Weil How Weyerhaeuser's Results Reflect on Timber REITs http://seekingalpha.com/article/120054-how-weyerhaeuser-s-results-reflect-on-timber-reits?source=feed 120054 Weyerhaeuser (WY) is not a timber REIT, though many of its investors would like it to be. Its results show how timber REITs are likely faring though.

From Weyerhaeuser’s Q408 conference call:

]]> Wed, 11 Feb 2009 17:21:12 -0500 SA Editor Judy Weil Weyerhaeuser (WY) is not a timber REIT, though many of its investors would like it to be. Its results show how timber REITs are likely faring though.

From Weyerhaeuser’s Q408 conference call:


Complete Story »]]> IP LPX PCL RWR VNQ WY SA Editor Judy Weil AvalonBay: Renters Are Doubling Up http://seekingalpha.com/article/119877-avalonbay-renters-are-doubling-up?source=feed 119877 Six key points from apartment REIT AvalonBay Communities Q408 conference call: (AVB)

Urban cultural shifts from market trends:

]]> Wed, 11 Feb 2009 06:34:59 -0500 SA Editor Judy Weil Six key points from apartment REIT AvalonBay Communities Q408 conference call: (AVB)

Urban cultural shifts from market trends:


Complete Story »]]> AIV AVB EQR RWR SA Editor Judy Weil Homebuilder M/I Homes Can't Offer Dividend or Share Buybacks http://seekingalpha.com/article/119849-homebuilder-m-i-homes-can-t-offer-dividend-or-share-buybacks?source=feed 119849 M/I Homes (MHO) reports on its Q408 conference call that it has amended its bank credit facility. The amendment comes with a restriction from paying dividends or buying back shares:

Effective January 15, 2009, we amended our bank credit facility. This amendment makes certain covenants less restrictive such as tangible net worth being (inaudible) to $100 million. It requires collateral and reduces the facility to $150 million. It also prevents us from purchasing our public debt. The facility maturity date remains October 2010.

]]> Wed, 11 Feb 2009 04:49:23 -0500 SA Editor Judy Weil M/I Homes (MHO) reports on its Q408 conference call that it has amended its bank credit facility. The amendment comes with a restriction from paying dividends or buying back shares:

Effective January 15, 2009, we amended our bank credit facility. This amendment makes certain covenants less restrictive such as tangible net worth being (inaudible) to $100 million. It requires collateral and reduces the facility to $150 million. It also prevents us from purchasing our public debt. The facility maturity date remains October 2010.


Complete Story »]]> BAC C ICF IYR JPM LEN MHO RYL WFC XHB SA Editor Judy Weil Beazer: Saving Incentives for Worse Times? http://seekingalpha.com/article/119822-beazer-saving-incentives-for-worse-times?source=feed 119822 From Beazer Homes FQ109 conference call: (BZH)

No incentives or price reductions last quarter in case the homebuilder needs to use more of them this quarter when it hits the “big” selling season:

]]> Wed, 11 Feb 2009 03:19:27 -0500 SA Editor Judy Weil From Beazer Homes FQ109 conference call: (BZH)

No incentives or price reductions last quarter in case the homebuilder needs to use more of them this quarter when it hits the “big” selling season:


Complete Story »]]> BZH ICF IYR XHB SA Editor Judy Weil Time Warner on Movies, DVDs and Online Advertising http://seekingalpha.com/article/119727-time-warner-on-movies-dvds-and-online-advertising?source=feed 119727 Three key points from Time Warner’s Q408 conference call: (TWX)

Film industry/DVDs declining:

]]> Tue, 10 Feb 2009 15:54:25 -0500 SA Editor Judy Weil Three key points from Time Warner’s Q408 conference call: (TWX)

Film industry/DVDs declining:


Complete Story »]]> DIS NWS PBS PEJ TWC TWTC TWX VIA SA Editor Judy Weil