Homebuilders Agree: January Was A Good Month [View article]
Hi Bill,
There are definitely signs of life. I wonder if California will be the state to lead us out of this slump? Are you seeing any more signs in Nevada? Do you get the sense that the worst has passed there?
Housing Market Tracker - Construction Job Loss Impact [View article]
Hi Bill, Nice to hear from you. Thanks for the illustrative info. I guess things aren't looking up just yet. Hopefully the standstill in construction will help balance the supply part of the equation soon.
Barron's Plan to Save the Economy - For Just $200B? [View article]
Excellent, insightful critique. I use Barron's very often in my research, and they have some great calls and some not-so-great calls. A critical eye is crucial to individual investors because even icons make mistakes. Thanks!
Annaly Capital To Take Fannie, Freddie's Place? [View article]
Dear Schminkie,
No, as you can see from the article my intention is quite the opposite. Since it may be misconstrued, I'm going to change the title. Thanks for the feedback. Judy
How Weyerhaeuser's Results Reflect on Timber REITs [View article]
Dear Scimitar,
If you read the transcript, Weyerhaeuser execs say they have cut down on logging quite a bit. A good portion of their harvest came from the retrieval of timber that had been felled during storms and natural disasters. It seems what you say is accurate and will likely emerge more clearly as a trend in next quarter's results.
To read the transcript, you can click on the link in the article.
Homebuilders Agree: January Was A Good Month [View article]
Dear Bill,
Interesting comment. Are you seeing banks lower their prices on REOs or just builders and investors unloading what they have?
After seeing prices go down so drastically in many places, I keep wondering how prices could go down so much further as projected by so many economists and insiders. I think Schiller is expecting 10%-15% more declines nationally.
I've been wondering lately if maybe the hardest-hit areas like California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona, are starting to stabilize in terms of prices (sales are up in California and Fla.) and that maybe the further declines that are expected nationally will come from the places that have not been hit so hard yet, like New York, Seattle, and North Carolina, etc.
The fact that you are seeing (cautious) signs of a bottom in Nevada strengthens that idea-- but who knows?? There have been signs of stabilization before and then further declines.
Homebuilders Agree: January Was A Good Month [View article]
Dear Equity Has No Clue,
I'm neither long the homebuilders, nor trying to push up or down those stocks. I don't own, have not owned, nor am I short any of them. I am simply pointing out that the homebuilders mentioned above all noted an upturn in sales in January. I don't have the slightest clue as to whether this means the housing slump is turning or is just pausing for air before the industry slips further in to the doldrums.
The homebuilder executives themselves weren't certain. Pulte's, as mentioned above, doesn't see any improvement on the horizon, while Ryland's and Horton's were more positive on the general trend.
I once read an article on Seeking Alpha written by a housing analyst who said he was watching the conference calls of homebuilders. He said the moment they displayed any sort of positive data or noted any positive trends, then that would be the first indication of a turn in the market for him. I, of course, don't have any idea if that is true, but for those that do subscribe to that theory, then here you have the first signs of a positive trend.
Many of the articles that I have read on housing point to further declines ahead, so I would say one month's sales would be pretty risky to use as a bottom indicator.
The point of this article, and conference call excerpts in general is to highlight how much information we can glean from the free conference call transcripts that Seeking Alpha offers.
Whether you buy in to homebuilder-executive-... or not, the fact that this trend can be gleaned by simply reading all of their transcripts, which are free and easily accessible and don't take too long to read, is probably the most important part of this entire article!
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It's available already: seekingalpha.com/artic...
Best,
Judy Weil
SA Editor
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Thanks!
Judy
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-Ed.
Homebuilders Agree: January Was A Good Month [View article]
There are definitely signs of life. I wonder if California will be the state to lead us out of this slump? Are you seeing any more signs in Nevada?
Do you get the sense that the worst has passed there?
Appreciate your thoughts,
Judy
Housing Market Tracker - Construction Job Loss Impact [View article]
Nice to hear from you. Thanks for the illustrative info. I guess things aren't looking up just yet. Hopefully the standstill in construction will help balance the supply part of the equation soon.
ATB,
Judy
Luxury Manhattan Real Estate Could Fall Another 50% - Barron's [View article]
Interesting detail, thanks!
ATB,
Judy
The $37B Roubini Forgot at Wells Fargo [View article]
Barron's Plan to Save the Economy - For Just $200B? [View article]
Annaly Capital To Take Fannie, Freddie's Place? [View article]
No, as you can see from the article my intention is quite the opposite. Since it may be misconstrued, I'm going to change the title. Thanks for the feedback.
Judy
How Weyerhaeuser's Results Reflect on Timber REITs [View article]
If you read the transcript, Weyerhaeuser execs say they have cut down on logging quite a bit. A good portion of their harvest came from the retrieval of timber that had been felled during storms and natural disasters. It seems what you say is accurate and will likely emerge more clearly as a trend in next quarter's results.
To read the transcript, you can click on the link in the article.
ATB,
Judy
Homebuilders Agree: January Was A Good Month [View article]
Interesting comment. Are you seeing banks lower their prices on REOs or just builders and investors unloading what they have?
After seeing prices go down so drastically in many places, I keep wondering how prices could go down so much further as projected by so many economists and insiders. I think Schiller is expecting 10%-15% more declines nationally.
I've been wondering lately if maybe the hardest-hit areas like California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona, are starting to stabilize in terms of prices (sales are up in California and Fla.) and that maybe the further declines that are expected nationally will come from the places that have not been hit so hard yet, like New York, Seattle, and North Carolina, etc.
The fact that you are seeing (cautious) signs of a bottom in Nevada strengthens that idea-- but who knows?? There have been signs of stabilization before and then further declines.
Anyway, I appreciate your thoughts, as always,
Judy
Mcrem51 and Chipseal, glad you find this useful.
Homebuilders Agree: January Was A Good Month [View article]
I'm neither long the homebuilders, nor trying to push up or down those stocks. I don't own, have not owned, nor am I short any of them. I am simply pointing out that the homebuilders mentioned above all noted an upturn in sales in January. I don't have the slightest clue as to whether this means the housing slump is turning or is just pausing for air before the industry slips further in to the doldrums.
The homebuilder executives themselves weren't certain. Pulte's, as mentioned above, doesn't see any improvement on the horizon, while Ryland's and Horton's were more positive on the general trend.
I once read an article on Seeking Alpha written by a housing analyst who said he was watching the conference calls of homebuilders. He said the moment they displayed any sort of positive data or noted any positive trends, then that would be the first indication of a turn in the market for him. I, of course, don't have any idea if that is true, but for those that do subscribe to that theory, then here you have the first signs of a positive trend.
Many of the articles that I have read on housing point to further declines ahead, so I would say one month's sales would be pretty risky to use as a bottom indicator.
The point of this article, and conference call excerpts in general is to highlight how much information we can glean from the free conference call transcripts that Seeking Alpha offers.
Whether you buy in to homebuilder-executive-... or not, the fact that this trend can be gleaned by simply reading all of their transcripts, which are free and easily accessible and don't take too long to read, is probably the most important part of this entire article!
All the best,
Judy
Motorola Reassures on Qualcomm, Texas Instruments [View article]