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Judy Weil

 
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  • Paychex Warns About Small Businesses [View article]
    Dear Crocodilian,

    Excellent point. I've been reading conference call transcripts from all sorts of industries for a while now. Your comment crystallized in my mind what I have been seeing in every industry, without exception: The language of uncertainty. No one really knows what's going to happen next.
    As much as the Fed and the government are trying to help, and even, (which I know some commenters above will not agree with) the banks, there is so much uncertainty. Will banks loosen lending criteria? Will consumers start buying homes and cars again? Will the stock market go up or down again? It seems almost like a coin toss at this point. With so much uncertainty and pessimism, let's hope Americans are all contrarians.

    Thanks for your insight,

    Judy
    Jan 7 01:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts Fret Over Lennar's New Start-Up [View article]
    Dear T-Bird,

    I'm happy to try and answer your question, but I would probably need a little more specificity. What aspect of real estate? Homebuilders? Regional or local real estate? Price? Sales? Outlook? etc...
    But I'll tell you, from what you've written, I would probably be more interested in what you think about real estate!
    It sounds like you've got a sense of how you think the market is going. Since you are in real estate, I'm sure investors would like to hear from an industry insider. All I can speak about is what I read. Facts on the ground, so to speak, would likely be much more informative.
    If you don't care to opine, I'm happy to oblige, just need a bit more guidance.
    ATB,
    Judy
    Jan 3 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lenders, Loan Modifications and Coming 'Cram-Downs' [View article]
    Dear One,

    I agree, a mistaken oversimplification and generalization. That is why I changed it just a minute after publishing. Unfortunately, you were quicker!
    Have a happy new year,

    Judy
    Dec 31 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homeowners Associations: Villians Or Victims in Foreclosure Crisis? [Housing Tracker] [View article]
    Thanks!

    Happy new year,

    Judy
    Dec 31 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CRMT: Another Nail in Automakers' Coffin? [View article]
    Hey Bill,

    Happy Holidays to you and yours!

    ATB,
    Judy
    Dec 23 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California Housing Recovery? Not So Fast [View article]
    Hi RAL,
    I agree that it would be best to wait for Q4 results to determine the trend. October-November's events in the stock market cannot have done good for real estate anywhere, whatever trends were emerging before that.
    Having said that, you might want to look at John Mauldin's Frontline Weekly newsletter. One interesting point he makes is about the new wave of defaults we've been expecting in the wake of re-setting ARM loans. Mauldin says that-- at least in the near term-- those loan rates will reset lower. Most are linked to LIBOR or treasuries, and those rates are down considerably from 2006.
    Worth a read: www.frontlinethoughts....
    All the best,
    Judy
    Dec 23 12:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley on Subprime (Still Hurting), Real Estate and More [View article]
    Thank you gents,
    I appreciate the kind words.
    Happy Holidays,
    Judy
    Dec 22 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley on Subprime (Still Hurting), Real Estate and More [View article]
    Dear Samrock001,

    I'm not trying to justify anything, actually. The article provides what I think are key data points from Morgan Stanley's recent earnings call. Conference call excerpts is a service we provide at Seeking Alpha for investors so that they don't have to read through the entire conference call transcript to find out important trends or pieces of information that impact the stock or other stocks.
    I hope you find it useful.
    All the best,
    Judy

    Dec 22 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KKR's Double Whammy [View article]
    Dear User 318452,

    Yahoo Finance lists Capital Trust Inc. and Prospect Capital Corp. as KFN's main competitors.

    finance.yahoo.com/q/co...

    ATB,
    Judy
    Dec 13 10:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3M CEO: Wisdom of the Ages [View article]
    LOL
    No need though, you can read transcripts for free on SA. (Just a little plug...)
    -Judy
    Dec 10 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CRMT: Another Nail in Automakers' Coffin? [View article]
    Dear Jay73,

    Several interesting questions for which I'll hazard a few guesses: Used cars have less overhead to begin with. Building a new car and selling it takes a lot more money than just selling an old car. So even if pricing keeps going lower, it's still going to be less of an impact than on those who have manufacturing costs.
    In the same vein, I'd venture to say that no matter how much you lower prices on a new car, it's still got to be higher than an old car. My brother once told me that as soon as you get the keys and drive your new car away from the showroom, you've lost 10% of the value of your car.

    Again, it's all guesswork, but I agree with you about the home vs. car question.

    ATB,
    Judy
    Dec 9 08:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CRMT: Another Nail in Automakers' Coffin? [View article]
    Hi Alan,

    I think what's relevant to the big automakers, in terms of CRMT, is that they are doing well in this downturn. Car manufacturers are obviously not. CRMT is poised to gain market share and is working hard on that. I doubt they will put car makers out of business-- after all, a used car has to be sold new first! But if more and more customers that would have bought a new car are looking for alternatives, then it will take that much longer for new car sales to revive.

    The other important aspect is that the company found that SUVs had become more attractive initially when oil prices and auto prices were falling last quarter. Now gasoline is even cheaper, but the spike in SUV interest has waned. For a car manufacturer like GM that has so much SUV inventory and manufacturing infrastructure, that's not a very good indicator.

    I don't think CRMT will put the Big Three out of business, but do believe the trends they note have bearing on the automotive marketplace.

    All the best,
    Judy
    Dec 4 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KKR's Double Whammy [View article]
    I've clarified things a bit better. Thanks for pointing it out.
    Judy
    Dec 3 03:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gap Inc.: How Canada, U.K., Japan and Russia Fare [View article]
    Dear Mr. MauMau,

    My mistake. I'd corrected the title, but forgot to remove the link. Thanks for pointing it out.

    All the best,

    Judy Weil.
    Nov 27 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Shift Away from Supermarkets, Restaurants Permanent? [View article]
    Hi Bill,

    So I'm curious, how come you're reluctant to shop for groceries at Wal-Mart? Is there some industry thing about Wal-Mart and groceries? Thanks for your illustrative comments!
    ATB,
    Judy
    Nov 26 01:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
129 Comments
38 Likes