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Judy Weil  

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  • Canada, NZ, Spain Home Prices Falter [Housing Tracker] [View article]
    Sleeping on the job...
    Sep 17, 2008. 07:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More On Mortgage Market Fallout [Housing Tracker] [View article]
    Hi Bill,
    So from the above it seems as if the crisis is going strong, but your comment yesterday gave me the feeling that there was some stabilization in the Nevada market. What's your overall sense there?
    Sep 11, 2008. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie, Freddie: Who Benefited, Who Lost [Housing Tracker] [View article]
    Oops, thanks for picking up on that. Removed it.
    - Judy
    Sep 11, 2008. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Knowing When To Take Money Off The Table [View article]
    You're absolutely right. Thanks for reporting him. I've removed his comment as well. - Ed.
    Sep 9, 2008. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Financials: No Sign Of Let Up From Subprime [Housing Tracker] [View article]
    Yours is the question of the hour really. Homebuilders, financials, bloggers, buyers and sellers and even ratings agencies debate this issue vigorously and constantly. If people are bidding on condos even though they are not at rock bottom prices as you say, then is it the bottom?

    Obviously, I don't know the answer to that question. But here are just two things to think about in trying to.

    One is that many billions of dollars more worth of ARM mortgages and other exotica between subprime and prime mortgages are still in the process of resetting. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I recently read that dozens of billions will be resetting in the next month and a half alone. Maybe with Fannie and Freddie's new look, banks will start lending, mortgages will now become more affordable and people can refinance in to a good, solid mortgage at a decent rate. After all, the Fed Funds Rate stands at 2%! People should be able to get a better deal than the 6-7%+ lenders are offering. But so far they can't and lenders won't lend even the sturdiest buyers for low rates right now. Risks are too high.

    Even if we're at the bottom, the market is still, well, at the bottom. Those that cannot afford the 10%-20%-even 40%-50% mortgage payment hikes, and cannot refinance or are not eligible to refinance, will not be able to sell. If they do, it will be without equity or even negative equity. Many will likely walk away. That's a lot of product coming on to the market. I won't even touch on the trend of rising prime mortgage delinquencies, the scenarios become even uglier.

    The other issue is why this whole thing started. Affordability. A bubble was created by prices just inflating and inflating and inflating until most people simply could not afford to buy anymore-- particularly in SoCal, as I'm sure you know.

    If sales are rising, is it because people can finally afford to buy houses now? Have prices reverted to the affordable mean already?

    [There's an actual measurement for that, by the way. Housing and Urban Development has an affordability metric, if I'm not mistaken. i.e. how much of their salaries can spend on housing and still live above the poverty line.]

    Obviously, I don't know the answer to that question either. But I personally believe that the answer to it will define the real bottom to this whole thing. If most people still can't afford to buy homes for a reasonable part of their salary, then the downturn will only stop when they can.

    Having said all that, I hope you're hopefulness turns out to be well-placed!

    Sep 8, 2008. 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commercial Real Estate: Eye On Hotels [Housing Tracker] [View article]
    Dear Politicus FInch,

    Sorry but the excerpt comes directly from an article on Commercial Property News' website. I googled it looking for independent corroboration and came up with another reference, but no dates. Looks like a beautiful hotel though...

    - Judy
    Sep 3, 2008. 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commercial Real Estate: Eye On Hotels [Housing Tracker] [View article]

    Thanks for the tip about the comments. Leverage rates vs. cap rates were definitely out of control. Good point about REITs. Anyone know which ones are more exposed to the Arizona market?
    Sep 3, 2008. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilder News: Lawsuits, Bottom Calls... [Housing Tracker] [View article]
    Sep 1, 2008. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Home Price Declines, But Not Everywhere [Housing Tracker] [View article]
    Thanks Bill, both for your interesting analysis and for your ever kind words.

    - Judy
    Aug 27, 2008. 04:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banks Wising Up? Short Sales Increase [Housing Tracker] [View article]
    Hi Fatcat,

    Sorry if it wasn't clear, I try to choose a title that reflects an important trend that emerges from the often disparate, general real estate news, but maybe I should be choosing more general titles.
    Something to think about-- thanks for the feedback.
    - Judy
    Aug 15, 2008. 07:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alt-A Default Warnings Grow Louder [Housing Tracker] [View article]
    Hi Bill,
    I thought of you when I was posting this one. I know you've commented on this before. Thanks for keeping up,
    Aug 13, 2008. 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gleanings From Pulte Homes Q2'08 Conference Call [View article]
    Thanks Bill,
    Always appreciate your commentary.
    Jul 31, 2008. 11:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gleanings From Pulte Homes Q2'08 Conference Call [View article]
    Here's one on Ryland Group:
    Jul 30, 2008. 01:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilders: Scant Good News [Housing Tracker] [View article]
    Thanks, Bill!
    Jul 24, 2008. 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Americans Changing The Way They Live [Housing Tracker] [View article]
    Jul 23, 2008. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment