Judy Weil

Homebuilders Agree: January Was A Good Month

Hi Bill,

There are definitely signs of life. I wonder if California will be the state to lead us out of this slump? Are you seeing any more signs in Nevada?
Do you get the sense that the worst has passed there?

Appreciate your thoughts,

Judy

Homebuilders Agree: January Was A Good Month

Dear Bill,

Interesting comment. Are you seeing banks lower their prices on REOs or just builders and investors unloading what they have?

After seeing prices go down so drastically in many places, I keep wondering how prices could go down so much further as projected by so many economists and insiders. I think Schiller is expecting 10%-15% more declines nationally.

I've been wondering lately if maybe the hardest-hit areas like California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona, are starting to stabilize in terms of prices (sales are up in California and Fla.) and that maybe the further declines that are expected nationally will come from the places that have not been hit so hard yet, like New York, Seattle, and North Carolina, etc.

The fact that you are seeing (cautious) signs of a bottom in Nevada strengthens that idea-- but who knows?? There have been signs of stabilization before and then further declines.

Anyway, I appreciate your thoughts, as always,

Judy

Mcrem51 and Chipseal, glad you find this useful.

Homebuilders Agree: January Was A Good Month

Dear Equity Has No Clue,

I'm neither long the homebuilders, nor trying to push up or down those stocks. I don't own, have not owned, nor am I short any of them. I am simply pointing out that the homebuilders mentioned above all noted an upturn in sales in January. I don't have the slightest clue as to whether this means the housing slump is turning or is just pausing for air before the industry slips further in to the doldrums.

The homebuilder executives themselves weren't certain. Pulte's, as mentioned above, doesn't see any improvement on the horizon, while Ryland's and Horton's were more positive on the general trend.

I once read an article on Seeking Alpha written by a housing analyst who said he was watching the conference calls of homebuilders. He said the moment they displayed any sort of positive data or noted any positive trends, then that would be the first indication of a turn in the market for him. I, of course, don't have any idea if that is true, but for those that do subscribe to that theory, then here you have the first signs of a positive trend.

Many of the articles that I have read on housing point to further declines ahead, so I would say one month's sales would be pretty risky to use as a bottom indicator.

The point of this article, and conference call excerpts in general is to highlight how much information we can glean from the free conference call transcripts that Seeking Alpha offers.

Whether you buy in to homebuilder-executive-... or not, the fact that this trend can be gleaned by simply reading all of their transcripts, which are free and easily accessible and don't take too long to read, is probably the most important part of this entire article!

All the best,

Judy

NAHB May Be On Its Way To Irrelevance

Hi Bill and Dave,

I really enjoyed doing the Housing Tracker. I liked the fact that Seeking Alpha gave me a mandate to quote from articles and not to analyze. That way people got an objective view of what's going on in the marketplace and could make their own judgments.

But I also think people are not that interested in it anymore. There's no question that the housing market has to stabilize for the economy to recover, but the focus right now seems to be on what's happening in the general economy and not necessarily in housing.

I don't think the story is over. I agree that the alt-A and option ARMs are still lurking out there. I've been reading a lot of financials' conference call transcripts (that are free on SA, by the way!) and it's been interesting to see how different banks deal with those loans still on their books. I'm trying to cover it from this angle now.

I'll do my best to post updates on things like commercial markets and price/sales shifts around the country as well.

Looking forward to your comments,

All the best,

Judy

NAHB May Be On Its Way To Irrelevance

Hi Bill and Dave,

Thanks for the kind words and Bill, especially for your regular insightful comments. I'm happy to hear that the Housing Tracker has been useful to you both.

We made an editorial decision to slim down on in-house coverage of the housing market for several reasons. The two main ones are that our contributors do a remarkable job in analyzing and keeping abreast of what's going on in the housing market and the other is, well, because the real estate bubble has pretty much popped.

I'll probably be posting one or two weekly posts on a narrower field of interest in the housing market. I'd be interested to hear from you both which housing topics you'd like to continue reading about.

If I do come across anyone who does the same kind of research on the housing market I'll be happy to post it here for anyone who is interested. Of course I'm always happy to answer your questions at any time.

All the best,
Judy

Homebuilder Update [Housing Tracker]

Thanks Bill, as always, for your insight.
- Judy

Homebuilder News: Lawsuits, Bottom Calls... [Housing Tracker]

Thanks!

Homebuilders: Scant Good News [Housing Tracker]

Thanks, Bill!

WCI Buyer Hoax? [Housing Tracker]

Thanks for the important update. Made a note of it at the top.

Judy

Toll Brothers Will Sell Your Home For You [Housing Tracker]

All transactions have to be reported to the SEC (within two business days) so I don't think a CEO can get away with that. I wonder though, if a CEO must only report big transactions. Can they do it slowly and then not have to report as long as the transactions are below a certain amount. Anybody know the answer to that?
Anyway, it's an interesting, if improbable, idea. It probably also wouldn't be worth the effort. If it ever got out, the CEO would be toast.

Desperate Homebuilders Bringing Back Bubble-Era Financing - Housing Tracker

Thanks Tom

Desperate Homebuilders Bringing Back Bubble-Era Financing - Housing Tracker

Dear Powersports,

Glad you find the housing tracker useful. Thanks!

Judy