Julian Ivan-Alexander

Apple's Up to Its Usual Tricks

"In a down market, it wouldn't hurt to rein in expectations and then exceed them--as Apple has in each of the last seven quarters, beating Wall Street estimates each time, including yesterday."

Actuallty its more like the last 17 quarters...

Apple, On Huge Order, Breaks NAND Flash Supply

Wall Street can't see through its darkened Windows (geddit? haha - groan) and is blind to the Apple delivery trucks zooming past them all over the world delivering 61% Mac sales growth and rolling out the iPhone to 75 countries.

But what do you expect from a bunch of numbskulls sat behind their Dells trading in their cubicles: inshight, imagination, and cutting edge analysis?

The Hidden Financial Impact of Apple's iPhone

Andy, thank God for someone who finally "gets it." Analysts take note: you shoudl be hiring this guy - at least he knows how to use a calculator while you're all still using fingers and toes (aside from a select group including Gene Munster, it goes without saying).

However, don't forget to factor in channel fill into your equations - booked sales appear when Apple ships to the carrier partner, not when the carrier partner sells the phone. Apple has 75 countries to fill with iPhones. That's a lot of iPhones, and probably way way more than 10 million.

Here's What Will Happen To Apple's Rivals

Actually its being unleashed in over 75 countries this year.. 22 is just the first release on July 11th, with the remainder to follow later on.

Apple's iPhone Mistakes

1) We don't know whether Apple signed a 5-year exclusive deal with AT&T or not. It could have been a 2-year deal, with AT&T having an option to carry the iPhone for a further 3 years but without preventing Apple from offering the device to other carreriers too, once that first initial 2 year exclusive period has expired.

2) Apple seem to have struck excellent terms with AT&T and the iPhone has proven to be one of the most successful consumer electronic launches in history.

3) I wouldn't call the launch of the touch a mistake. Its a shame it couldn't be launched with more memory at the outset, but the same could be said of the iPhone. However, sales of both items are en fuego, so I wouldn't call this a "mistake."

So in conclusion, I don't see either of the "mistakes" Appl made with the iPhone. Rather, I see the most sucesssful launch of any mobile phone ever (remembering it was initially only available in the US at launch), and the continuation of innovation in the iPod line sufficient to continue to drive demand and growth there whilst the iPhone product line is expanded.

At some point, people will stop worrying about falling iPod sales growth and rising iPhone sales growth, and realise that all that matters is that collectively, sales growth of the two lines combined (and they really are just one product line seperated merely by the presence or lack of cell phone cpability) is strong, rising, and likely to increase, given Apple's entry into the 1.2B/yr+ mobile phone market - a market some 10x larger than the current iPod market.

Its a matter of perspective. I don't see any mistakes, just flawless execution.

Some Troubling Data For Apple and SanDisk Shareholders

Dollar value of NAND is dropping, not unit sales. There is no "slashing of demand from Apple. There is a plunging in pries paid for NAND chips, and a glut resulting from Apple not upgrading their flash-based products as quickly as the NAND industry expeted.

This is a NAND overproduction problem, not an Apple demand problem.

Uncovering Apple's Missing 2M iPhones

I posted this elsewhere so forgive the duplication:

Here's where the "missing" 1.4 Million iPhones have gone.


Oh woe is upon us! "Where have all our iPhones gone? Think of the children, the children!" This murder mystery comes to you courtesy of yet more time-honoured analysis by favourite AAPL-sceptic du jour, Toni Sacconaghi of research outfit Bernstein & Co.

There are numerous potential explanations for this, most of them completely reasonable. With four countries to keep stocked and about 5000 stores (including Apple's own outlets), it stands to reason that Apple will have several hundred thousand - I've always estimated about 500-600k - in the channel at any one time.

In addition, the vast number of iPhones given as gifts over Christmas may not have been activated straight away as people wait for their existing contracts to expire before signing up to the iPhone carrier in their country.
Sacconaghi is spreading his doubts about Apple, as he always has done. Remember, this is the same guy who said Mac sales growth would flatten, the iPod was doomed, and that Apple would likely never rise over $78 in 2007.
Please people, stop fretting about monsters in the closet. Yes, there could be a problem with excess iPhone inventory, but more likely, this is just the result of far more natural and unimportant dynamics. Keep the possibility of excess inventory in mind if you like, but there is no reason to obsess over it.
If you look at 600K iPhones in the channel (ie both in stores themselves, and also in distribution warehouses which supply those stores) its a pretty reasonable number to assume that around 120 phones would be available to each store at any one time.

Factor in the fact that by Apple's own account 20% of iPhones are bought to unlock, and of the 4 Million sold to-date, 800k will be "invisible" to AT&T, O2, T-Mobile, and Orange.

800k + 600K = 1.4M iPhones accounted for.

There, mystery solved. Can we get on with our lives now, sans-panic?

Apple Sitting on Excess Inventory?

Probably just a change in component suppliers; APple changes them frequently, and often uses more than one to supply the same part.

You can read nothing WRT Apple's inventory here.

They could even be gearing up for a model change, and thus cutting back on supplies for existing models.

More Roman priests examining sacrificial goats' entrails to try to read the future.

Take Advantage of Apple's Q2 Guidance Misdirection

It takes that into account.

4 Problems With the iPod Touch

I'd rather have read that famous piece of Vogon poetry, "Ode to a small piece of blue putty I found underneath my armpit one morning" that this.

4 Million iPhones - Not Good Enough

Oh Todd, STFU with your AAPL bear BS.. they' sold 4M iPhones.. they have a 20% market share of the smart phone market. They're aiming to sell 10M iPhones by the END of CY2008.

AAPL have blown off the doors with the iPhone. Get a grip mate. No apologies for my rudeness.

Apple Has Too Much Cash

OMG.. words fail me. Why not Buy Krispy Kreme? Why not buy Gateway? Why not buy Burger King? Why not buy IBM?

Good grief... if AAPL has too much cash, its also safe to say that Sramana Mitra has too much time on her hands.

Sell These Three Stocks Before Everyone Else Does

Jon, these guys trying to time an "AAPL top" call are a dime-a-dozen, and they're routinely wrong, which is why they always lay on the caveats thick and fast. Why sell a company growing earnings by 40-60% YoY with no sign of a slowdown?

AAPL "looks soft" the last two years? yeah.. a 250% gain - very soft indeed.

Dell Initiates $10 Billion Buyback

"This is a significant event, especially for a company that's lost about 25 percent of its market value since October," "

Yes, I always think its a significant event when a company that's gone down the crapper chooses to waste ten billion Dollars buying back its own stock.

AT&T CEO Promises 3G iPhone Soon - Will it Freeze Demand?

Actually Larry is completely wrong. At the UK iPhone launch in October, Jobs specifically stated he hoped to have a 3G iPhone out by "late 2008," as far as I recall (or words to that effect).

This is not news, except for headline writers with too much time on their hands. Nothing to see. Move along.