Julian Ivan-Alexander

Why Research in Motion Is a Takeover Target

How you getting on with that tool you use to get stones out of horses' hooves these days...? :)


On Nov 12 10:47 AM RiskCapital wrote:

> Well, you may be right. However, I just ditched AT&T because
> they tried to fix my iphone for the 3rd time only to find out it
> had a virus. It had one all along. They say it had it the moment
> I bought it. They can have all the apps. iphone is a POS. We will
> have to wait for a 2nd generation Android before we get one without
> glitches galore. Right now I am happy with my old Casio until I figure
> out what I want next. But I am taking my time. Not going to make
> another iphone mistake.

Forecasting the PC Market's Future: The Rise of HP, The Fall of Dell

Great points, but the author is forgetting the wild card in the consumer space: AAPL, which has more than doubled its market share of notebook sales in just 10 months, and is seeing unit sales growth of 3-4x the industry average.
Apple will eat DELL's lunch - and HP's - in the consumer space. Just look at new university entrants: many are reporting that up to 65% of new students are bringing Macs with them. Over the years, that translates to a massive growth in market share as those people will upgrade to new Macs, not PCs, and they'll be more inclined to use Macs in their workplace, and eventually with their families.
The tipping point has been reached, and the days of the bland PC+Windows dominance are over. The future of the consumer desktop, and (and laptop!) belongs to Apple.

Four Big Tech Companies That Should Age Gracefully - Barron's

AAPL isn't "aging." Its growing at 30-40% YoY, and will continue doing so for the next 3-4 years.
HPQ? Doomed to middle age, laucklustre growth, and falling margins.
MSFT? Well past its prime, circa 7 years ago. Coincidentally about the same time DELL peaked.
CSCO? Undervalued, good solid play, but no sprinter.
The only growth story here is AAPL. Yet AAPL trades at 22x forward earnings. I know where I'd put my money.

The Decline of the PC: Computers No Longer a Growth Industry

William, nice contrarian thinking :) .. but I'm not sure there are truly that many Vista bulls around though - just a few very vocal ones. I don't see Vista driving growth. Sales, perhaps, but not any real out-of-the-ordinary growth. I see Mac sales a chief beneficiary of the Vista upgrade cycle, because with the change of environment from XP to Vista and with Macs running OSX, Vista, and XP, many buyers wanting to upgrade their PC will just go Mac instead, knowing they can run the best of all three OSs on the one machine. This will be even more true once OS X Leopard is out in a few months and Apple step up Mac advertising.

The Decline of the PC: Computers No Longer a Growth Industry

William, sorry; I was being dry with my remarks. Of course the PC industry isn't a growth industry any more. Apple is a growth company, however. There's isn't another mega-cap like Apple: executing to perfection, growing earnings 30-40% YoY, innovating, and trouncing the competition.

Vista won't be a big growth driver IMO. There's just no buzz about it. It will drive sales, but not to the degree many are hoping.

The Decline of the PC: Computers No Longer a Growth Industry

"What is clear, though, is that PCs are no longer a growth industry" - unless you're Apple, in which case your "PC" sales are still growing by about 30%. Sounds like a "growth industry" to me.