Julian Ivan-Alexander

Why Research in Motion Is a Takeover Target

How you getting on with that tool you use to get stones out of horses' hooves these days...? :)


On Nov 12 10:47 AM RiskCapital wrote:

> Well, you may be right. However, I just ditched AT&T because
> they tried to fix my iphone for the 3rd time only to find out it
> had a virus. It had one all along. They say it had it the moment
> I bought it. They can have all the apps. iphone is a POS. We will
> have to wait for a 2nd generation Android before we get one without
> glitches galore. Right now I am happy with my old Casio until I figure
> out what I want next. But I am taking my time. Not going to make
> another iphone mistake.

Research In Motion: Still the Best Positioned Smartphones Play

Lenny... did you check the date of that report? Its August... 2008... a whole generation of iPhone/iPhone OS ago.
Virtually every issue the BB user complained about has been remedied now.
You're using a 15-month old comparison of a BB user's experience trying an iPhone to try and illustrate why BB users won't switch now. The smartphone world has been turned on its head in the last 6 months, let alone the last 15. This isn't you're grandfather's smartphone world, so to speak :)

Research In Motion: Still the Best Positioned Smartphones Play

Here's your biggest blindspot: You recognise that "not for a minute" do you think RIM will outsell Apple in the consumer market, but you say: "It is also reasonable to expect RIMM to benefit from the return of enterprise spending both in the US and abroad, which has been largely absent from the growth side of the company’s revenues over the past six quarters. This could be a game changer in 2010."
Here's the news you won't talk about: given a choice, virtually every report from executives at Fortune 500 companies offered the chance to switch to an iPhone are choosing to switch. The company standing to benefit the most from a pickup in enterprise spending isn't RIMM, its AAPL.

Research In Motion: Still the Best Positioned Smartphones Play

The blind leading the blind. RIMM is facing its most competitive challenge in its history, has an OS that's about 10 years out of date, and yet chooses to spend money on a stock buyback to support its shareholders/hedge fund shills rather than investing in more R&D to improve its margins and help reduce its costs.
Last sign of a desperate company shrieking of its relevance. Remember DELL's massive buybacks?
Enough said.
Why invest in RIMM, which is losing market mindshare, when you can invest in AAPL, which is growing all over the world, both in mindshare and market share?
RIMM is so 2004.

Apple Remains Overvalued, Despite Its Gadget Glory

Wow - I remember reading analysis like this when AAPL was at $10 (pre-split)...and $35.. and $50... and it was NEVER going above $100. $200 was plain "STOOOOPID" right? I mean, earnings growth on a scale never achieved by a mega-cap and sustained through the worst recession in 80 years means nothing, right? You, my friend, are the best contra-indicator there is. While generally well-educated and eloquent individuals such as yourself can continue to spew forth saddeningly ill-informed and ill-judged analysis, I am reassured that the AAPL-bus still has many, many yet to welcome on board. I think I'll start following you and once you start going bullish on AAPL, I'll know its time to get off :)

Good luck with them MOTs... go easy on the analysis though; you might cut yourself with that RAZR-sharp brain of yours. Personally I think you're off your ROKR though. Tell you what, why don't you add a dash of RIMM to your portfolio, and a sprinkle of PALM - all of which are about to vanish into the tarpit of history.

Bon chance.

Palm Pre vs. iPhone: The Gmail Advantage

The iPhone does support the IMAP IDLE protocol afaik.

U.S. Handset Subsidies to Be Replaced by Something Worse?

Are you nuts? Subsidised handset sales are the norm in Europe. You really need to get out more.

The Google Phone: Blockbuster or Bust?

Google is not positioning itself against Apple. Its positioning itself against Windows Mobile and its lesser competitors. I'm not sure why people find this so hard to understand.

Here's What Will Happen To Apple's Rivals

Actually its being unleashed in over 75 countries this year.. 22 is just the first release on July 11th, with the remainder to follow later on.

Google, Apple, Research in Motion and Amazon: Are "The Four Horsemen" Overvalued?

Laughably low estimates for AAPL in 2008 are responsible for skewing the AAPL numbers. AAPL will earn approx $6 - 6.50 in 2008, not $4+. The smart money knows this, which is why it is letting the stock run up even while most of the blow hard analysts fail to get their collective heads around the impact of iPhone subscriber revenue sharing with the carriers and the $1-2+ on earnings this offers.

AAPL is actually the most undervalued of the lot, relatively, rather than the most expensive.

Research in Motion: Holding Its Own in the Face of iPhone Competition

Funny... in a 3 days, Apple sold 1M iPhones... more than RIMM usually sell in 3 months. That's in spite of Apple being on one network in one country, and RIMM on 300 networks in 100 countries.

Makes you think, doesn't it, when you look at it like that, Mr Basille.

RBC Capital Sees RIM's Product Cycle Momentum Continuing

I don't understand how so many analysts can pin so much hope on RIMM solely due to its purported potential in the consumer smartphone market when Apple is about to launch an ICBM missile into the arena in the form of the iPhone, set to sell 10M+ units in the next 6-12 months (or 1-6 months, if you believe the optimists).
RIMM may have the corporate market sewn up, but the consumer space is about to be steamrollered by the iPhone in much the same way the iPod blew away established competition in the MP3 player market. At the very least, RIMM will suffer competition of a strenght and ferocity it has never encountered in the corporate space, and at the very worst, its products just won't be able to compete for consumers' eyeballs and wallets.

Delusional.

Barron's 2007 Analyst Roundtable, Part III

Contrary to Fred Hickey's statistics, APPL'e ttm PE is just 30 (not 38), and its forward PE just 22 (not 31). If you back out the $13/share in cash, then AAPL's forward PE is just 18.

Huh? That's expensive? That would be low even if AAPL were growing earnings by 20% YoY, let alone the 30-40% it is comfortably maintaining.

Fred Hickey said iPod growth rates are falling apart. They grew 50% YoY last Q, for a record 21m iPods. Mac sales are growing 30% YoY - that demonstrates plunging Mac sales?

Someone should call him out on this call. Hickey is on another planet. I wish there was an ETF on Fred Hickey so I could short it.